MLB betting preview (Aug. 22): Blue Jays vs. Marlins predictions

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Shane Bieber (57) throws balls during batting practice before a game against the Chicago Cubs at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Aug 22, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 22, 2025, 12:05 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will open a three-game series against the Miami Marlins on Friday night.

Toronto is coming off a disappointing series against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who took two of three from the Blue Jays at PNC Park earlier this week.

Miami, meanwhile, has lost five consecutive series since sweeping the New York Yankees in early August. However, the Marlins are coming off a 6-2 win over the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Blue Jays and Marlins, courtesy of bet365.

Blue Jays vs. Marlins odds

Blue Jays moneyline odds	-165
Marlins moneyline odds	+140
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (-110), Marlins +1.5 (-110)
Game total	Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 runs (-105)
Date/Time	Aug. 22, 7:10 p.m. ET

About the Blue Jays (74-54 SU, 75-53 ATS, 69-54-5 o/u)

The Blue Jays enter this series with a solid 4 1/2-game lead over the New York Yankees for the top spot in the American League East and are on track for a first-round bye in the playoffs by virtue of having the second-best record in the AL. There’s still plenty of regular-season baseball to play, though, and Toronto has the eighth-hardest remaining schedule (.512 SOS with 34 games left to play) in the majors.

Toronto owns a very impressive 25-14 record in interleague play this season, while boasting a .801 team OPS in 39 games against National League opponents (second-best OPS in baseball). Its .275 batting average and .340 on-base percentage in interleague play are also the best in the majors.

About the Marlins (60-67 SU, 74-53 ATS, 60-65-2 o/u)

Things are falling apart for the Marlins, who have suffered losses in 12 of their last 16 games to quickly exit the playoff picture. Now, the Marlins find themselves in the familiar position of auditioning young players down the stretch, looking towards the future.

Miami is averaging 4.3 runs per game (18th in the majors) while allowing 4.8 per game (24th). A glance at some other notable team ranks reveals that the Marlins rank in the middle or back of the pack in most other statistical categories on both sides of the ball. As usual, this team reeks of mediocrity with not much to play for down the stretch.

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Shane Bieber (season debut)

The Blue Jays will roll out their prized trade deadline acquisition for the first time on Friday against the Marlins. Bieber, who has missed the past 17 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery, posted an impressive 2.04 ERA and 3.50 FIP in 17 2/3 innings in the minors over the last few weeks. It’s probably unrealistic to expect the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner to throw 90 or more pitches in his first start after major elbow surgery, so bettors shouldn’t expect an overly lengthy outing from the right-hander.

Miami: TBD

The Marlins have yet to formally announce a starting pitcher for Friday’s contest as of this morning, but some media outlets are suggesting right-hander Ryan Gusto (7-5, 4.89 ERA) will get the ball.

Notable injuries

Outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), pitcher Yimi Garcia (elbow), pitcher Alek Manoah (elbow), and pitcher Bowden Francis (shoulder) are on the injured list for Toronto. First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is day-to-day with a hamstring issue.

Outfielder Kyle Stowers (oblique), infielder Connor Norby (wrist), and pitcher Anthony Bender (leg) are on the IL for Miami.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 27 C and clear skies. Winds will blow from right field to left field at 9 mph.

Blue Jays vs. Marlins betting trends

The Blue Jays have the best record on the runline (75-53) in the majors.
Miami won all three games against Toronto last season and covered the runline.
Toronto is one game below .500 (32-33) on the road this season.

Blue Jays vs. Marlins player prop trends

Jakob Marsee has hit safely in four straight games and 15 of his last 20. He’s -180 to get a hit.
Bo Bichette has recorded over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in six straight games and 16 of his last 20. He’s around -155 to extend that streak.
George Springer has scored at least one run in 14 straight games and is -125 to extend that streak. He’s also homered in back-to-back games and is around +425 to go deep.

Blue Jays vs. Marlins best bet

Shane Bieber under 17.5 outs recorded: +105 for one unit (best odds @ Caesars). This line seems high given that Bieber hasn’t thrown a pitch off a big league mound in 17 months or so. We’re already seeing several sportsbooks drop this line to 16.5 outs as of Friday morning, so grab this line at amazing plus money odds while it’s still available. I highly doubt the Blue Jays will push Bieber more than two times through the order in his return to the mound, leaving no margin for error for him to record 18 outs. Also, keep in mind that Toronto had a day off on Thursday, so the bullpen will be fresh and ready to go.