MLB Betting Preview (Aug. 27): Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions
Photo credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Aug 27, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 27, 2024, 11:48 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will be seeking a sixth straight win when they visit the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday evening after taking both games of a doubleheader at Fenway Park on Monday.
In reality, the Blue Jays are actually seeking a seventh straight win, but the first contest of the doubleheader Monday was actually the completion of a June 26 game, so it won’t go down in the record books as being played on Aug. 26. The Jays cruised to a 4-1 win in that first contest before taking the nightcap 7-3.
Boston has dropped four straight games (but really five due to yesterday’s completion of the suspended contest), and is quickly falling out of playoff contention in the American League.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Red Sox courtesy of bet365:
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +125 |
Red Sox Moneyline Odds | -150 |
Runline Odds | Red Sox -1.5 (+125), Blue Jays +1.5 (-150) |
Over/Under | Over 9.5 runs (-115), Under 9.5 runs (-105) |
Time/Date | Aug. 27, 7:10 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (65-68 SU, 70-63 ATS, 72-58-3 o/u)
All of a sudden, the Blue Jays are just three games below .500 after an impressive stretch of baseball. After taking all four games from the Los Angeles Angels last week, Toronto stormed into Fenway Park and grabbed a pair of wins on Monday. Trailing the Minnesota Twins by eight games for the final AL Wild Card spot, the Blue Jays actually have a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs now, according to FanGraphs’ projections. Obviously, it would take a Herculean effort down the stretch in order to make things close, but it’s interesting that it’s at least possible now after the team’s current winning streak.
Outfielder George Springer homered in both contests Monday, bringing his total to 19 on the season. He has homers in five of his last seven games (if you count yesterday’s suspended afternoon game in succession), which is surely a good sign for the struggling veteran. Despite his recent surge, he’s still slashing just .190/.261/.405 this month.
Betting Boston Red Sox (67-64 SU, 59-72 ATS, 69-55-7 o/u)
After having roughly a 45% chance of making the playoffs just a week ago, Boston’s playoff probability has fallen to around 18% following its recent losing streak, according to FanGraphs. The schedule in the second half has been daunting, and it won’t get any easier down the stretch for the Red Sox, who still have series remaining against the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and the Minnesota Twins, who they are chasing in the Wild Card.
Errors, errors, and more errors have been their ultimate undoing. The Red Sox have committed the most errors in baseball (98), and that has resulted in the lowest fielding percentage (.980) in the majors. Their -20 rating in team defensive runs saved also ranks 24th in baseball.
Boston needs to turn things around now against the Blue Jays, and this weekend against the lowly Chicago White Sox, in order to play some meaningful baseball in September.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Yariel Rodriguez (1-5, 4.40 ERA, 9.40 K/9, 1.33 WHIP)
Rodriguez gave up five earned runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings last time out against the Cincinnati Reds, and he wasn’t great in his start before that, coughing up four runs over five innings to the Chicago Cubs. He hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in a start this season, so don’t expect him to pitch deep into this game.
Boston: RHP Cooper Criswell (5-4, 4.41 ERA, 6.89 K/9, 1.34 WHIP)
Criswell held the Houston Astros to one run on four hits while striking out four over 4 1/3 innings the last time he took the mound, but he was demolished in a relief appearance in his previous outing before that by the Baltimore Orioles, who piled on six earned runs on nine hits over 3 1/3 innings. Criswell doesn’t throw anything straight or hard, so expect the Blue Jays to put lots of balls in play.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 24 C under clear skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 8 mph.
MLB betting trends
- The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 17 of their last 22 away games.
- The over is 6-2 in Toronto’s last eight games.
- The Red Sox are just 23-43 on the runline at home this season.
- Boston holds a 4-3 straight-up edge in the season series and the over is 5-2 in those meetings.
MLB player prop trends
- Addison Barger has hit safely in five straight games and eight of his last 10. He’s -190 to record a hit.
- Masataka Yoshida has been hot for the Red Sox, hitting safely in four straight games and eight of his last 10. He’s slashing .339/.416/.534 with five home runs and 22 RBIs since the All-Star break. Yoshida is -220 to get a hit and +145 to record over 1.5 total bases.
- Both Jarren Duran and Springer have homered in back-to-back games. Duran is +600 to homer, and Springer is +500.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions
- Momentum is really on Toronto’s side after Monday’s sweep, and the Blue Jays have the edge in bullpen usage after receiving two strong starting pitching performances in Monday’s doubleheader. Both of Tuesday’s starting pitchers have struggled to pitch past the fifth inning this season, so bullpens should play a key role in this one, with Toronto’s unit being the fresher of the two. Take the underdog Jays on the moneyline at +125.
- It’s going to be a warm evening in Boston with light winds blowing out, so target a few players on both sides for home run props. Toronto has allowed the most homers (182) in the majors and Boston (163) isn’t too far behind in that category. Duran (+600) and Springer (+500) are swinging the hot bats right now, but also consider Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+475) and Triston Casas (+650) to go yard.