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MLB Betting Preview (Aug. 30): Blue Jays vs. Twins predictions
Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Jhoan Duran (59) and catcher Christian Vazquez (8) celebrate a win as Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Davis Schneider (36) looks on at Rogers Centre.
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
Aug 30, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 30, 2024, 12:06 EDT
After taking three of five games from the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, the Toronto Blue Jays will continue their road trip on Friday when they visit the Minnesota Twins for the opener of a three-game set.
Backed by a strong performance from starting pitcher Bowden Francis, the Blue Jays cruised to a 2-0 victory over the Red Sox on Thursday to snap a two-game slide.
Minnesota, which had the day off Thursday, has dropped four consecutive games after being swept by the Atlanta Braves earlier this week.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Blue Jays and Twins courtesy of bet365:

Blue Jays vs. Twins odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds
+130
Twins Moneyline Odds
-155
Runline Odds
Twins -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)
Over/Under
Over 7.5 runs (+100), Under 7.5 runs (-120)
Time/Date
Aug. 30, 8:10 p.m. ET
TV
Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (66-70 SU, 71-65 ATS, 72-61-3 o/u)

The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 games and are playing loose since selling off several assets at the trade deadline in July. In fact, they’re playing so well, that there’s a faint glimmer of hope that this team could close the gap in the Wild Card standings. Entering play Friday, the Blue Jays have a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs’ projections. They enter this series with Minnesota, which is holding down the final AL Wild Card spot, 7 1/2 games back of the Twins. However, if they can somehow pull off a sweep this weekend, they could potentially close that gap to 4 1/2 games and make things interesting.
Toronto’s starting pitching has been excellent lately and pitching deep into games, giving the bruised and battered bullpen a chance to recover and regroup. Every reliever should be available on Friday, taking away Minnesota’s rest advantage from a pitching perspective by virtue of having a day off on Thursday.

Betting Minnesota Twins (72-61 SU, 61-72 ATS, 68-61-4 o/u)

The Twins had around -120 odds to win the AL Central Division back in March, but they find themselves looking up at the Kansas City Royals, who hold 1 1/2-game advantage over Minnesota for the division lead. Not only that, the Boston Red Sox are lurking 3 1/2 games behind the Twins for the final AL Wild Card spot, with several other teams still in a position to make a push if they get hot.
Losers of five of their last six games, the Twins will need to get back on track with a series win this weekend before heading out on a road trip with stops in Tampa Bay and Kansas City. That looming series with the Royals could go a long way in deciding Minnesota’s playoff fate.
The Twins rely heavily on their starting pitching, which ranks in the top five in the majors in WHIP (1.16), opponents’ batting average (.238), and strikeouts (721).

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (12-9, 4.10 ERA, 8.39 K/9, 1.22 WHIP)
Gausman is having a fine month of August, recording a 2.84 ERA while holding the opposition to a .211 batting average. He struck out 10 batters over seven innings in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels and he’s allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last nine appearances. However, bettors should be aware that Gausman is one of the easiest pitchers in the league to steal off of, so there might be some value in targeting some Minnesota speedsters on Friday.
Minnesota: RHP Pablo Lopez (12-8, 4.26 ERA, 9.79 K/9, 1.14 WHIP)
Lopez really struggled through the months of May, June, and July, but he’s really found his groove recently, holding the opposition scoreless in his last two starts. He’s struggled with his changeup, which has lost some of its vertical and horizontal movement this season when compared to 2023, and that’s resulted in a lofty .316 opponents’ batting average on the pitch. However, the right-hander is still one of the best starting pitchers in the AL, ranking in the 93rd percentile in chase % and 96th percentile in fastball run value, according to Baseball Savant.

Weather

We’ll have ideal weather conditions for this game, with temperatures around 22 C expected under clear skies. Winds will blow out to centre field at 11 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • The Twins have hit the team total over in 26 of their last 37 home games.
  • The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 17 of their last 25 games.
  • The Twins are just 28-38 on the runline at home this season.
  • The Twins took two of the three previous meetings with Toronto this season, and two of those games played under the total.

MLB player prop trends

  • Addison Barger has hit safely in eight straight games. He’s -210 to get a hit.
  • Lopez has recorded 18 outs or fewer in four of his last five starts. He’s -170 to record under 18.5 outs.
  • Lopez has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s -140 to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs.

Blue Jays vs. Twins predictions

  • Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair with the posted 7.5-run total, and there’s certainly a case to be made with these two formidable starting pitchers on the mound. Bet365 has a tidy three-leg parlay centred around Lopez that’s boosted to +350 odds that includes the Minnesota right-hander to pick up the win, amass over 5.5 strikeouts, and record under 2.5 earned runs. A quick glance at career matchup data reveals that Lopez has historically dominated everyone on Toronto’s roster, aside from George Springer (1-for-3 against Lopez), or they’ll be facing him for the first time. Teams always lean on their ace to snap a losing skid, and this game is incredibly meaningful for the Twins to get back on track. Also consider the Twins on the moneyline at -155.

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