MLB Betting Preview (Aug. 6): Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions
Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Aug 6, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 6, 2024, 10:54 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will welcome a familiar foe, the Baltimore Orioles, to Rogers Centre on Tuesday to begin a three-game series.
These two teams met for four games at Camden Yards last week, with the Orioles taking three of four from Toronto. Baltimore has a 6-4 straight-up edge in the season series, and the teams have played over the total in seven of the 10 previous meetings this season.
Baltimore split a four-game series with the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend, taking the final two contests. Toronto, meanwhile, dropped two of three games to the Yankees in the Bronx over the weekend.
Both teams were off on Monday, so the bullpens will be fresh for this game.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Orioles and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:
Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds
Orioles Moneyline Odds | -140 |
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +120 |
Runline Odds | Orioles -1.5 (+115), Blue Jays +1.5 (-135) |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 runs (-105), Under 8.5 runs (-115) |
Time/Date | Aug. 6, 7:07 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Baltimore Orioles (67-46 SU, 57-55 ATS, 62-40-11 o/u)
The Orioles enter play Tuesday deadlocked with the New York Yankees for the top spot in the American League East standings. However, despite having identical 67-46 records, FanGraphs is giving the Yankees a 58.7% chance of clinching the division title because New York has an easier schedule down the stretch. And the Yankees and Orioles won’t meet again during the regular season, so there won’t be a direct opportunity to gain ground on each other.
Bettors should know that the Orioles have hit the most home runs in the majors (174) and average the third-most runs per game (5.1). Anthony Santander leads the team with 32 homers, and he’s hit four against Toronto this season, two of those coming at Rogers Centre. Gunnar Henderson is second on the team with 29 long balls, and six other Orioles have registered double digits in the home run category, so there’s power all throughout the lineup. Toronto has coughed up 154 home runs to this point, the most in the majors, so there’s a recipe for fireworks in this series.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (51-61 SU, 55-57 ATS, 61-48-3 o/u)
It’s going to be a long two months for the Blue Jays, who are well out of contention and playing for next season with a record of 10 games under .500. The Orioles punished Toronto’s pitching staff over the course of four games last week, teeing off for an average of 7.75 runs per game in the series.
On a more postive note, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing like a man possessed lately, slashing .398/.455/.830 with nine home runs and 20 RBIs over the last 30 days. He’s done some serious damage against the Orioles this season, too, posting a 1.424 OPS with four homers.
Addison Barger has also impressed recently, collecting seven hits, two of them home runs, over his last six games.
Probable starting pitchers
Baltimore: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (13-4, 3.86 ERA, 10.03 K/9, 1.24 WHIP)
This will be Rodriguez’s second consecutive start against the Blue Jays after he allowed four runs – three earned – with eight strikeouts over six innings of work last week against Toronto. In an earlier June outing against the Blue Jays, Rodriguez was even better, holding Toronto to one run over 6 2/3 innings while striking out four. The right-hander has a devastating changeup, which he throws 21% of the time with a 35% whiff rate. It’s particularly nasty against left-handed hitters.
Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (8-10, 4.02 ERA, 8.41 K/9, 1.45 WHIP)
Bassitt was roughed up by the Orioles for five earned runs over four innings of work last week. Opponents hit a lofty .315 against him last month, and he posted an ugly 7.01 ERA across five July starts. Left-handed batters have had much more success against him (.817 OPS) this season than right-handed batters (.638 OPS), so targeting Baltimore’s big bats from the left side (Santander, Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Adley Rutschman) may be a profitable strategy.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 21 C with clear skies this evening in Toronto, which means this will likely be an outdoor game. Winds will blow from left field to right field at 8 mph.
MLB betting trends
- The over is 13-1 in Baltimore’s last 14 games.
- The over is 10-2 in Toronto’s last 12 games.
- The Blue Jays have won four of their last five home games.
MLB player prop trends
- Rodriguez has struck out six or more batters in eight of his last 10 starts, including last time out against Toronto. He’s -130 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
- Bassitt has recorded 15 outs or less in four of his last five starts. He’s +115 to record under 17.5 outs on Tuesday. Bassitt has also allowed three or more earned runs in five straight starts. He’s -115 to record over 2.5 earned runs.
- Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser is taking an impressive 17-game hitting streak into action Tuesday. He’s a steep -225 to get a hit and +125 to record over 1.5 total bases.
- Orioles rookie Jackson Holliday has scored a run in six straight games. He’s +160 to accomplish the feat again Tuesday.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions
- Target the player props for some of Baltimore’s big left-handed bats against Bassitt. Henderson is 4-for-7 with two homers and five RBIs in his career against the Toronto righty, and O’Hearn is 5-for-9 with a homer and four RBIs against Bassitt. Santander and Rutschman have also had some success against Bassitt to a lesser degree.
- Over 8.5 total runs (-105). Both of these teams have been trending over totals lately, and both starting pitchers won’t be fooling anyone this time around having already faced off against these respective lineups last week. The hitters should have the edge here, especially with the line at 8.5. A safer play would be to target the Orioles team total over 4.5 runs (-115).