MLB Betting Preview (Aug. 8): Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions
Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Aug 8, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 8, 2024, 10:53 EDT
The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays will play the rubber match of a three-game series on Thursday evening at Rogers Centre.
After the Blue Jays took the series opener 5-2, the Orioles slugged their way to a 7-3 victory on Wednesday night to even up the series. Baltimore has taken seven of the previous 12 meetings between the AL East rivals, guaranteeing a win in the season series with the Blue Jays.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Thursday’s clash between the Orioles and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:
Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds
Orioles Moneyline Odds | -115 |
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | -105 |
Runline Odds | Orioles -1.5 (+140), Blue Jays +1.5 (-165) |
Over/Under | Over 9 runs (-105), Under 9 runs (-115) |
Time/Date | Aug. 8, 7:07 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Baltimore Orioles (68-47 SU, 58-56 ATS, 63-41-11 o/u)
The Orioles added three more home runs Wednesday to their season tally of 178, the most in the majors. Anthony Santander went deep twice, and Jackson Holliday homered for the third consecutive game to become the youngest player in AL history to accomplish the feat (20 years, 247 days). Santander leads the team with 34 home runs, and he’s done a considerable amount of damage against the Blue Jays by crushing six of those homers against them this season. Holliday has also feasted on Toronto pitching, swatting three of his first four career homers against the Jays.
Toronto has surrendered a major league-leading 158 home runs, so betting on Baltimore’s big bats going deep again on Thursday should continue to be a profitable strategy.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (52-62 SU, 56-58 ATS, 62-49-3 o/u)
Alejandro Kirk has mostly been a disappointment this season, but his bat has come alive lately, slashing .353/.368/.451 with 10 RBIs over the last 30 days. Kirk went 2-for-3 with a walk on Wednesday while serving as the team’s designated hitter, and he boasts a .313 career batting average against Baltimore’s starting pitcher on Thursday, Dean Kremer.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also continued his tear on opposing pitchers, extending his hitting streak to 19 games with a single hit on Wednesday. He was also robbed of extra bases by Anthony Santander, who made a leaping catch up against the wall late in the game on a Guerrero Jr. The Blue Jays slugger is slashing an incredible .471/.591/.824 in August.
Probable starting pitchers
Baltimore: RHP Dean Kremer (4-8, 4.39 ERA, 8.44 K/9, 1.25 WHIP)
This will be the first time Toronto has seen Kremer this season. He’s coming off a loss to the Cleveland Guardians, who touched him up for four earned runs on six hits over five innings last week, but Kremer posted a solid 3.96 ERA last month and was in good form heading into that start. Kremer’s best pitch is his split finger, which he uses roughly 17% of the time for a 36% whiff rate. Toronto will need to be disciplined and not chase this pitch down in the zone in order to be successful.
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (9-8, 4.56 ERA, 8.61 K/9, 1.30 WHIP)
Gausman will have to erase his last start against Baltimore from his mind because it wasn’t pretty. The right-hander coughed up three homers, two of them to Austin Hays, and six runs total to the Orioles in that early June start. And Gausman won’t be bringing much confidence into this start after the New York Yankees roughed up him for five runs (four earned) on eight hits the last time he took the mound. His splitter remains his best pitch, but he isn’t getting as much downward movement on the pitch this season as he has in previous years, according to Baseball Savant.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 22 C and cloudy skies with a 40% chance of rain, so this game could be played outdoors or indoors depending on how the weather shapes up closer to first pitch. Winds will blow from left field to right field at 15 mph, if the game is played with the roof open.
MLB betting trends
- The over is 14-2 in Baltimore’s last 16 games.
- The over is 11-3 in Toronto’s last 14 games.
- The Orioles have only hit the first five innings moneyline in three of their last 10 road games.
MLB player prop trends
- Kremer has failed to record 17 outs or more in seven of his last eight starts. He’s -115 to record under 17.5 outs.
- Kremer has walked two or more batters in eight of his 10 starts, averaging 2.5 per game during that span. He’s -150 to record over 1.5 walks.
- As previously mentioned, Holliday has homered in three straight games. He’s +750 to go deep again.
- Guerrero Jr. is -350 to get a hit after hitting safely in 19 straight games.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions
- Take a good look at Guerrero Jr. (+425) and Santander (+400) to go deep in this one. The red-hot Vladdy has four homers in 25 career at-bats against Kremer and the equally hot Santander has taken Gausman deep three times in 15 career at-bats against him. While we’re at it, why not put a sprinkle on Holliday to continue to clear the fences at enticing +750 odds.
- Orioles moneyline: -115. This game is incredibly meaningful for the Orioles, who are deadlocked with the New York Yankees for the top spot in the AL East. Look for them to slug their way to another victory and a series win against lowly Toronto on Thursday.