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MLB betting preview (July 11): Blue Jays vs. Athletics predictions

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Ernie Clement (22) beats the tag from Athletics second baseman Luis Urias (17) to slide safely to second base on a double during the eighth inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

By Greg Warren

Jul 11, 2025, 16:55 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will be looking to get back to their winning ways when they visit the Athletics in Sacramento for their final series before the All-Star break.

Toronto had its 10-game winning streak snapped by the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday afternoon, but it still enjoys a two-game lead over the New York Yankees for the top spot in the American League East.

The Athletics took two of three from the Atlanta Braves at home earlier this week and are a respectable 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Blue Jays and Athletics courtesy of bet365.

Blue Jays vs. Athletics odds

Blue Jays moneyline odds	-165
Athletics moneyline odds	+140
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (-105), Athletics +1.5 (-115)
Game total	Over 10.5 runs (-125), under 10.5 (+105)
Date/time	July 11, 10:05 p.m. ET

About the Blue Jays (54-39 SU, 55-38 ATS, 49-42-2 o/u)

Yes, Toronto had its 10-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday, but the team has still won five straight series to rocket to the top of the AL East. Now, the Blue Jays have three games in Sacramento to close out the schedule prior to next week’s All-Star break.

The Blue Jays have averaged 5.9 runs per game over their last 14 contests with a .276 team batting average and .358 on-base percentage. George Springer continues to lead the way offensively, slashing .412/.487/.882 with five homers and 13 RBIs in nine games this month.

Toronto swept all four games with the Athletics when they visited Rogers Centre at the end of May.

About the Athletics (39-56 SU, 46-49 ATS, 48-41-6 o/u)

The Athletics are already 17 games back of the Houston Astros for the AL West lead and are well out of playoff contention, so they’ll surely be sellers once again at the trade deadline.

Most of their problems this season have stemmed from poor pitching. They rank 29th in the majors in runs allowed per game (5.7) while sporting a combined 5.29 ERA. They’ve also given up the most home runs in the majors (143) and have one of the worst fielding percentages (.981, 27th) in baseball.

The Athletics’ minus-137 run differential is the second worst in the majors behind Colorado (minus-251).

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Max Scherzer (0-0, 4.76 ERA, 8.47 K/9)

Scherzer has been solid in three starts since returning from the injured list, limiting the opposition to three earned runs or less in each of those outings. However, his pitch count hasn’t exceeded 83 in any of his four appearances this season, so don’t expect a lengthy outing from the veteran righty. Even at the age of 40, Scherzer is still averaging nearly a strikeout per inning.

Athletics: RHP Luis Severino (2-10, 5.30 ERA, 6.05 K/9)

Severino is in awful form, allowing five earned runs or more in each of his last three starts. And he’s been dreadful in 11 home starts this year, sporting a bloated 7.04 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .298 off of him at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The right-hander recently complained about the temporary minor-league home of the club, stating, “it feels like a spring training kind of game every time I pitch.” Severino has been much better on the road, recording a 3.04 ERA while holding opponents to a .219 batting average across eight starts.

Notable injuries

Pitchers Nick Sandlin (elbow), Bowden Francis (shoulder), and Yimi Garcia (ankle) are on the injured list for Toronto. Andres Gimenez (ankle), Daulton Varsho (hamstring), and Anthony Santander (shoulder) are also on the IL.

Shortstop Jacob Wilson (wrist) is day-to-day for the Athletics.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for warm temperatures around 30 C under clear skies. Winds will blow out to centre field at 8 mph.

Blue Jays vs. Athletics betting trends

The Blue Jays have the best record on the runline (55-38) in the majors.
Toronto is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 on the runline against the Athletics this season. The over is also 4-0 in the season series.
The Blue Jays have hit the team total over in 26 of their last 38 games.
The Athletics have hit the team total over in eight of their last 11 games.

Blue Jays vs. Athletics player prop trends

Severino has recorded 17 outs or less in six of his last seven starts and is -130 to record under 17.5 outs. He’s also allowed five earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts, with a median of five earned runs during that span. Severino is +100 to allow four or more earned runs on Friday against Toronto.
Tyler Soderstrom has hit safely in four straight games and seven of his last 10. He’s -200 to get a hit.
Nathan Lukes has recorded over 1.5 total bases in four straight games and five of his last six. He’s -102 to do it again on Friday.

Blue Jays vs. Athletics best bet

Luis Severino under 17.5 outs recorded: -122 for one unit (best odds @ Pinnacle). We can’t ignore Severino’s awful track record at Sutter Health Park, where he has averaged just 16.7 outs over 11 starts this season. You won’t find a starting pitcher with more drastic home/road splits than Severino (7.04 ERA at home; 3.04 on the road), and the warm weather conditions will certainly favour the hitters in this matchup. Add in the fact that the Blue Jays are hitting well above the league average over the last month or so, and it’s hard to imagine a lengthy outing from Severino on Friday night. Some sportsbooks have set this game total as high as 11 runs, so they’re expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. If that game script plays out, it’ll likely be another short start for the Athletics righty.
Blue Jays runline -1.5: -101 for one unit (best odds @ Pinnacle). This seems like a logical spot to back the best team on the runline in the majors against an inferior opponent. Toronto has a clear edge in the starting pitching department and the rest advantage in this matchup, having Thursday off while the Athletics battled the Braves. The Athletics used five relievers on Thursday, while Toronto’s relievers have had a light week due to some solid starting pitching performances. Not a single Blue Jays reliever has thrown more than 44 pitches over the last five days, so the group is fresh and ready for a heavy workload this weekend, if needed.