After coming within two outs of winning the World Series in 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays have performed well below expectations in 2026 and sit last in the AL East. For much of the season, they were helped by struggles across the American League, meaning that despite their disappointing first half, the Blue Jays were able to stay in the American League wild-card race.

That has changed in recent weeks, with the Blue Jays dropping to 6.5 games back of the third AL Wild Card spot. A lot has gone wrong for the Blue Jays in 2026, but one of the biggest reasons for their struggles has been their plate approach.

A big reason for the Blue Jays’ success in 2025 was their aggressive plate approach. They’ve carried that aggressive approach to the plate into 2026, but with less success.

The Blue Jays have the second-fewest pitches per plate appearance in MLB (3.79). This is actually slightly higher than in 2025, when they saw 3.77 pitches per plate appearance. However, the Blue Jays slashed .265/.333/.427 in 2025, while in 2026 they’re slashing .244/.306/.384. So not only are they not getting hits, they’re not working counts.

The Blue Jays have the second-highest swing rate in MLB (50.3 per cent), which is up from 2025 (48.9 per cent), when they had the fifth-highest. However, most of that difference comes from swinging on pitches outside the zone.

Their chase rate has increased from 29.3 per cent in 2025 to 33.5 per cent in 2026. However, their contact rate on those balls outside the strike zone is similar to 2025 (63.4 per cent in 2025, 62.8 per cent in 2026). Their swing rate on pitches inside the zone is similar to last season (68.1 per cent in 2025 to 68.6 per cent in 2026).

The Blue Jays’ strikeout rate is up from 2025 (17.8 per cent in 2025 vs. 19.6 per cent in 2026), but it’s still the third lowest in MLB behind the Tampa Bay Rays and the Arizona Diamondbacks. So while they are swinging a lot outside the zone, they are making a lot of contact. They have the third-highest contact rate in MLB (79 per cent). The problem is that the contact isn’t translating into hits as much as it did in 2025. The Blue Jays are 25th in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) (.277). In 2025, they were seventh (.298).

Their hard-hit rate is down significantly from 41.3 per cent in 2025 to 35.4 per cent in 2026. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that their home run percentage is also down from 3.1 per cent in 2025 to 2.7 per cent in 2026. However, their ground-ball rate is up from 41.2 per cent in 2025 to 42.5 per cent in 2026.

Another issue for the Blue Jays in 2026 is their lack of walks. The Blue Jays have the second-lowest walk rate in MLB (7.4 per cent), ahead of only the San Francisco Giants. Not only is this well below the league average (nine per cent), it’s also down from their walk rate in 2025 (8.4 per cent).

The Blue Jays’ lack of walks is especially interesting because walks as a whole are up across MLB. The Blue Jays’ 8.4 per cent walk rate from 2025 matched the league average. Even if they were to match that rate, they would only have the 23rd-highest walk rate in 2026.

The Blue Jays are one of six teams whose walk rate hasn’t increased in 2026. That includes the New York Yankees, who have maintained a 10.2 per cent walk rate from 2025 to 2026. Of the five teams whose walk rates are down, the Blue Jays have the third-largest decrease (minus-one per cent), behind only the Athletics (minus-1.3 per cent) and the Giants (minus-2.7 per cent).

Among returning Blue Jays players with at least 100 plate appearances, Daulton Varsho (plus-2.8 per cent), Myles Straw (plus-1.5 per cent), and Alejandro Kirk (plus-0.7 per cent) are the only players who are walking more than they did in 2025. Even so, Varsho and Straw are still below the MLB average of nine per cent (Varsho: 8.4 per cent, Straw: 7.9 per cent). The biggest drop-offs in walk rate for the Blue Jays are from Andrés Giménez (minus-3.3 per cent) and Nathan Lukes (minus-3.2 per cent), though Lukes has still increased his OBP from .323 in 2025 to .339 in 2026.

The lack of walks may play a role in why the Blue Jays’ OBP dropped from an MLB-leading .333 in 2025 to the worst at .303 in 2026. Walks aren’t everything, but it’s worth noting that the top three teams in walk rate (Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers) all rank in the top five in OBP.

The Blue Jays offence was starting to look stronger in the final week before the All-Star break, though it came after one of the worst four-game stretches of the season. When play resumed after the break, the Blue Jays were back to struggling.

The Blue Jays went 29.2 straight innings without scoring a run between July 3 and 6. The streak was broken up by a solo home run from Kazuma Okamoto in the sixth inning of their series opener against the San Francisco Giants on July 6. That would be the only run the Blue Jays scored that night in a sloppy 10-1 loss.

The following day, the Blue Jays introduced a new addition to the dugout: a stuffed dragon.

The early returns in the dragon era were promising, at least for the offence. The Blue Jays are 3-2 with the dragon heading into the All-Star break, though the two losses were more due to pitching and defensive issues than the offence.

In the first five games with the dragon, the Blue Jays hit nine home runs and averaged 10 hits per game. Their slash line looked more similar to 2025 than to 2026 (.275/.338/.451). They’ve also had a 13.4 per cent strikeout rate and an 8.5 per cent walk rate.

The Blue Jays showed a much more patient approach in the final five games before the All-Star break. Their swing rate was 48.2 per cent, almost two per cent lower than their season rate. They were also swinging less on pitches outside the zone (31.2 per cent vs. 33.4 per cent). Their contact rate over those five games was 84.4 per cent compared to 79 per cent on the season. They were more selective about their pitches and did more damage when they chose to swing.

The results didn’t last. When the Blue Jays returned after the break, they were back to struggling. Since play resumed, the Blue Jays have slashed .192/.250/.274 with just four home runs. Their walk rate dropped to 6.4 per cent.

All the positive signs they showed before the break disappeared. They were swinging at 53.2 per cent of pitches and 39.2 per cent outside the zone. They still had the highest contact rate (82.1 per cent), but had the second-lowest BABIP (.225). They continued making a lot of contact, but hardly any of it was effective.

The Blue Jays needed to come out swinging after the All-Star break. Instead, they floundered and have almost certainly put themselves out of contention for a wild-card spot.

The Blue Jays have shown flashes of being a very productive offensive team, but have lacked consistency. That may have cost them a spot in the postseason in 2026. Still, a smarter plate approach would help the team make up some of the ground they’ve lost, and at the very least, would make for more entertaining baseball.