The Tigers stayed hot with a 5-4 win in Friday’s series opener, which was their third straight victory and eighth in ten matchups. Jack Flaherty showed well with eight strikeouts in five and 2/3 innings pitched and continued his case as one of the top starters on the market ahead of the July 30th trade deadline.

Blue Jays management would love to see a similar performance from Yusei Kikuchi who is also likely to be moved prior to the deadline but has struggled to a 6.93 ERA over his last five starts.

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Saturday’s matchup between the Tigers and Blue Jays:

Reese Olson has shown plenty of positive development for the Tigers the last two seasons, and has effectively kept batters on their toes with a five-pitch mix this season.

Olson has pitched to an xERA of 3.46 and xFIP of 3.60 this season and has improved upon those marks in his most recent outings. Over the last five starts, Olson has pitched to an ERA of 2.40 and an xFIP of 3.04. He has also remained equally effective away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Comerica Park to this point, as he owns a 3.14 ERA on the road across 51 and 2/3 IP.

The Tigers are projected to be a worse-than-average side against left-handed pitching entering the season and have been worse than average with a wRC+ of 90 and a slugging rate of .378 versus LHP this season. They enter this matchup in better form against lefties though, having hit to a wRC+ of 111 over the last 30 days of play.

Kikuchi could be making the final start of what has been an up-and-down career with the Blue Jays on Saturday. Throughout most of Kikuchi’s tenure he has found a hard time finding consistency, and that trend has continued of late.

Kikuchi was pitched well versus Houston and San Francisco, before an ugly blowup on July 14th versus the Diamondbacks just prior to the break. He has pitched to an ugly ERA of 6.93 over his last five starts, with the bulk of the concern being a strand rate of 60% and an HR/FB of 16.7%. His 3.19 xFIP in those outings is still a highly positive indicator, and he has still struck out batters at an elite rate with a 12.41 K/9.

Pitching metrics aren’t surprising to see an elite K-rate from Kikuchi, as he owns a Stuff+ rating of 110 and a Location+ rating of 102 this season.

Over the last 30 days, the Blue Jays have been in a middle-of-the-pack offence in splits against right-handed pitching. They have hit to a wRC+ of 103 and an OPS of .715 in that span. Their typically strong BB/K ratio has trended down to 0.34, which ranks 17th in the league across that span.

Kikuchi continues to be one of the streakier pitchers in baseball, and more than most it feels like at any point he could put together an entirely dominant outing, or blow up at any moment. Still, he has boasted a strong underlying profile of late and gets a better-than-average matchup here versus the Tigers which makes me feel like the most common outcome is a good Kikuchi game.

Backing Kikuchi to record over 6.5 strikeouts is tempting at +128, but the one concern I have with that bet is that Blue Jays’ management likely isn’t interested in pushing Kikuchi’s pitch count in this matchup right now, particularly if any single inning late in the game becomes strenuous.

Even over a span where the Tigers’ offence has been playing well past expectations, they have still performed like a middle-of-the-pack side against left-handed pitching.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Blue Jays waste a quality outing from Kikuchi if he does pitch well though, as Olson has been a legitimately excellent starter that has proven tough for opposing teams to game plan for.

It’s scary betting on a strong Kikuchi start, but a betting total of 8 does look high given the upside of these starters and the offensive play of these teams. At any price better than -120 a bet on the game to go 8 looks worthwhile.