MLB betting preview (July 22): Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Jul 22, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 22, 2025, 11:54 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays are favoured to win for the 12th consecutive time at Rogers Centre on Tuesday, as Cam Schlittler will take on Max Scherzer in the second start of his MLB career.
The Blue Jays extended their lead atop the AL East to four games with a well-rounded performance in the series opener on Monday, and can clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Yankees with one more win from the final four matchups between the two this season.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Yankees and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds
Yankees moneyline odds | +105 |
Blue Jays moneyline odds | -125 |
Runline odds | Yankees +1.5 (-190), Blue Jays -1.5 (+160) |
Game total | Over 9 runs (-110), Under 9 runs (-110) |
Date/time | July 22, 7:07 p.m. ET |
About the Yankees (55-45 SU, 47-53 ATS, 44-52-2 o/u)
The Yankees will be feeling the pressure to respond with a much sharper performance after a sloppy showing on Monday and finally earn their first win of the season at Rogers Centre in their sixth attempt. New York’s lineup struck out 12 times in the series opener and made a pair of defensive errors in the fifth inning, which helped the Blue Jays to break through with three critical runs.
While their bats were fairly quiet in Monday’s series opener, the Yankees have scored an average of 4.8 runs at Rogers Centre this season and also averaged 9.6 hits per game in those matchups. New York has struggled to convert with runners in scoring position this season at Rogers Centre, while its pitching staff has struggled mightily to shut down the Blue Jays’ offence.
The Yankees have been the second most effective offence in MLB versus right-handed pitching this season, entering this matchup with a wRC+ of 118 and an OPS of .784. They hold the fourth-highest hard-hit rate in baseball versus righties and the eighth-best BB/K ratio.
Scherzer pitched the opener of the previous series in Toronto and allowed two earned runs across five innings of work.
Schlittler is considered one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and earned his call-up to the big leagues with some excellent work in Triple-A this season, striking out 13.31 batters per nine and allowing an xFIP of 2.97. Schlittler allowed three earned runs across five innings of work in his MLB debut versus the Seattle Mariners, but was effective overall, racking up seven strikeouts and pitching to an xERA of 2.84.
It was evident that Schlittler has high-quality stuff in his big league debut, as he generated 10 whiffs and 15 called strikes and held a Stuff+ rating of 107.
About the Blue Jays (59-41 SU, 59-41 ATS, 52-46-2 o/u)
From top to bottom, the Blue Jays’ scrappy lineup offered another strong performance in the series opener and were able to force Carlos Rodon out of the game after five innings. Toronto’s strong plate discipline was on display versus Rodon, as the dominant lefty racked up only four strikeouts and allowed a season-high five walks.
The Blue Jays hold fairly neutral lefty-righty splits and will provide a tough matchup for Schlittler in this matchup. They hold a ninth-ranked wRC+ of 106 versus right-handed pitching this season and have also struck out less than any other team versus righties.
While Blue Jays management has likely still been fairly pleased with Scherzer’s work this season, particularly given the leadership and experience that he provides to the team, his stuff is not what it used to be. He holds a career-worst 4.70 ERA, as well as a career-worst 4.87 FIP.
Scherzer’s Stuff+ rating of 98 is also the worst mark of his career, and his chase and whiff rates are down considerably.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The Blue Jays are 28-17 when playing as a favourite this season.
- The Blue Jays have won 11 straight home games.
- Toronto is 6-2 versus New York this season.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets
- New York Yankees Moneyline +105: The massive difference in experience between Scherzer and Schlittler could play a role in this high-pressure matchup, but it also seems that the gigantic gap in name power between the two starters could be helping the Blue Jays garner a little too much credit from a betting perspective in this matchup.
Schlittler has the potential to be a far better-than-average starter at the big league level and showed well in his big league debut, despite finishing with a fairly modest stat line. Scherzer’s velocity has decreased considerably at this stage of his career, and he has become far more hittable as a result.
While fading the Blue Jays’ red-hot offence right now is not all that appealing, the Yankees have been the best offence in baseball versus right-handed pitching this season and should be able to do some damage against Scherzer in this matchup.
Considering the Yankees’ results versus righties this season, and the fact that Schlittler could easily outperform Scherzer the rest of the way, a price of +105 to back the Yankees finally earning their first win of the season at Rogers Centre looks to hold value.