MLB Betting Preview (July 24): Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays first base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) runs the bases after hitting a home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Jul 24, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 24, 2024, 10:37 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to rebound Wednesday after dropping the series opener to the Tampa Bay Rays, 4-2, on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre.

Toronto starter Jose Berrios struggled mightily with his control Tuesday, issuing six walks while allowing three earned runs over 4 2/3 innings as the Blue Jays dropped to 10 games below .500 with the loss.

Six Rays pitchers held the Blue Jays to just two runs on six hits, and Brandon Lowe launched his 11th homer of the season to propel Tampa to its third win in its last four games.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s clash between the Rays and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Rays vs. Blue Jays odds

Rays Moneyline Odds	-115
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	-105
Runline Odds	Rays -1.5 (-145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)
Over/Under	Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 runs (-105)
Time/Date	July 24, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Tampa Bay Rays (51-50 SU, 50-51 ATS, 49-50-2 o/u)

With Tuesday’s win, the Rays are now just 4.5 games back of the Kansas City Royals for the final American League wild card spot. They have a 21% chance of making the playoffs, but also have the third-most difficult remaining schedule, according to FanGraphs. The team’s performance over the next handful of games will determine the direction the front office takes leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. After this series with the Blue Jays, the Rays have favourable matchups against the Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins to close out the month.

On Tuesday, the Rays did a good job of capitalizing on the opportunities that presented themselves, going 3-for-8 with runners in scoring position while stranding just six runners. The team also stole three bases on Toronto to bring its total up to 102 on the season, good for fourth in MLB.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (45-55 SU, 49-51 ATS, 51-46-3 o/u)

It was the same old story for the Blue Jays on Tuesday as the bats went cold once again. Justin Turner did his part, though, collecting three hits, including his sixth homer of the season. Toronto’s executives will be pleased with the performance and will hope he continues to swing a hot bat as they shop him and his expiring contract ahead of the trade deadline.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also launched his 17th homer of the campaign in a losing cause. He loves hitting at the Rogers Centre, where he’s slashing .324/.393/.514 with nine homers and 33 RBIs in 185 at-bats this season.

Keep an eye on Toronto’s lineup card for late scratches before placing your wagers over the next week as the team will surely be trading away key players over the coming days.

Probable starting pitchers

Tampa: RHP Zach Eflin (5-7, 4.14 ERA, 7.16 K/9, 1.17 WHIP)

Eflin is struggling right now, allowing 18 hits and 10 earned runs over his last three starts. Additionally, the Blue Jays have roughed him up twice already this year, tagging the right-hander for 10 earned runs over 11 2/3 innings. One thing Eflin excels at is limiting walks, as he ranks in the 98th percentile in avoiding free passes, according to Baseball Savant. However, he struggled with his control in his last start, walking a season-high four New York Yankees hitters.

Toronto: RHP Yariel Rodriguez (1-3, 3.78 ERA, 9.72 K/9, 1.38 WHIP)

Bettors need to know that Rodriguez is always in the game for a good time, not a long time. The right-hander hasn’t thrown more than 83 pitches in a start this season, throwing past the sixth inning just once in eight starts. The Cuban rookie is on a nice little run right now, though, allowing just three earned runs over his last three starts while striking out 19 batters in just under 17 innings pitched. He’s never faced the Rays, so he’ll have the element of surprise in this start.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for evening temperatures around 22 C (feeling like 26 C with the humidity) with a 40% chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be blowing in from right field at 11 mph.

MLB betting trends

The over is 8-1 in Toronto’s last nine games.
The Rays have covered the runline in 20 of their last 30 games.

MLB player prop trends

Eflin has recorded more than 18.5 outs in just five of his 18 starts this season (28%) and just twice in his last 10 outings. He’s -190 to record under 18.5 outs on Tuesday.
Rodriguez has recorded at least six strikeouts in each of his last three starts and is -140 to record over 4.5 strikeouts against the Rays, who strike out an average of 8.98 times per game.
Guerrero Jr. has exceeded 1.5 total bases in five straight games and is -105 to do so again Tuesday.

Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions

These two teams give up the most homers in the majors (Rays 29th, 134 HR, Jays 30th, 137 HR), so hone in on some home run props for this one. Guerrero Jr. has homered in four of his last five games (+550 to homer Tuesday) and Lowe has homered in three of his last five (+425 to homer Tuesday). George Springer (+525 to homer) has also had some success against Eflin, posting a 1.429 OPS and a home run in seven career at-bats against the righty.
The Rays love to run, so consider targeting their three speedsters — Jose Caballero (+265), Richie Palacios (+320) and Randy Arozarena (+400) — to potentially steal a bag. Base stealers are a perfect 4-for-4 stealing second base on Rodriguez this year.