With just a 1.4% chance at claiming a playoff berth, it’s about the small victories at this point in the season for the Blue Jays. A series win over a division rival which has often given the team fits in recent years has to count for something, and the Jays’ have the opportunity to do so Thursday afternoon.

Thursday’s matchup is nearly a pick-em at most sportsbooks, as Taj Bradley (2.63 ERA, 75 and 1/3 IP) is set to take on Chris Bassitt (3.71 ERA, 114 IP). Bassitt has struggled to an ERA of 6.14 in three starts this July, while Bradley has been dominant in pitching to a 0.45 ERA in 20 innings of work.

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Thursday’s matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays:

After a late start to the season due to a pectoral injury sustained late in Spring Training, Taj Bradley has made the most of his 75 and 1/3 innings of work in pitching to a dominant 2.63 ERA. Despite holding a 5.59 ERA last season, Bradley remained a trendy option in fantasy drafts entering the 2024 campaign based on his high-quality stuff.

At the age of just 22 Bradley held a strong Stuff+ rating of 110 last season, with an average fastball velocity of 96.1 MPH. He struggled with command however as well as potentially tipping his pitches, leading to his ugly ERA.

His command looks better this season, and his arsenal is now grading out even better as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 115. He has improved his HR/FB to 13.5% and has managed to strand 83.3% of base-runners.

Bradley owns a 3.70 xERA overall this year, with a 3.29 xFIP. Over his last five outings, Bradley has struck out 10.29 batters per nine innings and holds an xFIP of 3.07. He has also allowed an xBA of only .172 in that span and has been hard-hit just 33% of the time.

The Rays lineup currently features no absences due to position players on the IL and will hope being at full health can help drive a better stretch of offensive play. Over the last month of action, Tampa has hit to a wRC+ of only 89 versus right-handed pitching. They have struck out more than we have typically come to expect (25.1% of the time) but do still hold a second-best walk rate of 10.3%.

Bassitt will look to get right and snap a stretch of three ugly starts in a row Thursday, in which he has allowed 12 earned runs across 16 and 2/3 innings of work. His underlying results have not been as strong as usual recently, but do suggest that he can stabilize moving forward, and there have not been drastic red flags in terms of his velocity of late either. Over his last five starts, Bassitt has pitched to an xBA of .271 with a hard-hit rate of 42%, and he owns an xFIP of 4.53 in that span. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 94 this season, which is highly comparable to last season’s mark.

The Blue Jays have hit to a wRC+ of 108 versus right-handed pitching over the last month with an OPS of .736. The shaky form of the bullpen during that span (28th ranked 5.45 ERA) has helped hide a better run of form at the plate.

At times this season the Jays’ have displayed elite plate discipline, which is certainly a favourable note in a matchup versus Bradley. However they have also consistently struggled with high velocity fastballs, and can expect a steady dose of quality fastballs from Bradley Thursday.

George Springer could be one batter to watch on Thursday, as he has been effective against high-velocity fastballs and is in excellent form. Springer has seven home runs against fastballs of 95 MPH or greater this season, which ranks second in MLB.

The Jays have consistently overvalued at home all season long and that looks to be the case once again today as it continues to look like the prior results of the Jays’ lineup are leading to inflated betting lines. Toronto has quietly been the more effective offence in splits relative to this game, but that still doesn’t seem to cover up the Rays’ other edges.

Bassitt is certainly a better pitcher than we have seen of late and likely will stabilize in the near future. Bradley looked like a pitcher worth buying on entering this season based on his electric stuff, and he has been paying off those expectations of late with a tremendous run of results.

While it was the Rays bullpen that blew up last night, they do still look to be holding a more trustworthy set of high-leverage arms for the time being.

At -105 there is value backing the Jays’ to disappoint at the Rogers Centre this afternoon.