MLB Betting Preview (July 26): Rangers vs. Blue Jays

Texas Rangers second base Marcus Semien (2) celebrates with shortstop Corey Seager (5) after hitting a home run against the Chicago White Sox in the third inning at Globe Life Field.

Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Jul 26, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 26, 2024, 11:14 EDT

One night after being thumped 13-0 by the Tampa Bay Rays, the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series Friday with the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre.

Toronto dropped two of three games to the Rays earlier this week to lose a third straight series and fall back to 10 games below .500.

Texas, meanwhile, has won five straight games to creep up to one game below .500 entering this series. The Rangers are just 2.5 games back of the Houston Astros for the top spot in the American League West Division.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Rangers and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Rangers vs. Blue Jays odds

Rangers Moneyline Odds	+105
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	-125
Runline Odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+165), Rangers +1.5 (-200)
Over/Under	Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 runs (-105)
Time/Date	July 26, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Apple TV

Betting Texas Rangers (51-52 SU, 45-58 ATS, 40-58-5 o/u)

Texas is now one game below .500 for the first time since June 2 and owns an MLB-best 13-6 (.684) record in July. The Rangers’ current five-game winning streak has vaulted them back into playoff contention, with FanGraphs now giving them a 24.7% chance of qualifying for the playoffs as the winner of the AL West, and a 6.8% probability of claiming the final AL wild card spot.

A series win this weekend in Toronto could solidify the Rangers as buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline, so motivation will be high for the Rangers to have a good showing. This team is poised to make a playoff push no matter what management decides to do at the deadline because several key players are rehabbing from injuries. Jacob deGrom (elbow), Evan Carter (back), and Josh Jung (wrist) are all beginning to get healthy and could rejoin the team in the coming weeks. When that happens, watch out.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (46-56 SU, 50-52 ATS, 53-46-3 o/u)

Toronto was held to just two hits by the Rays on Thursday afternoon. Spencer Horwitz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were the only Blue Jays to record hits, and the team managed to score just eight total runs over the three games against Tampa. Scoring enough runs has been a problem all season long for them (averaging just four runs per game), and it’s an issue that likely won’t get any better the rest of the way with the team so far out of contention.

Bettors should be monitoring trade deadline rumours and news regarding the Blue Jays for the next few days as the team is expected to deal many players on expiring contracts. Don’t be surprised if you see late scratches on the lineup card over the weekend and early next week when Toronto travels to Baltimore.

Friday will mark the first of six games the Blue Jays and Rangers will play against each other this season.

Probable starting pitchers

Texas: LHP Andrew Heaney (4-10, 3.60 ERA, 9.09 K/9, 1.24 WHIP)

Heaney has been very good in three starts this month, holding the opposition scoreless in two of those starts. He blanked the Baltimore Orioles over five innings last time out while walking three and striking out four. His control has been an issue recently, though, and that has resulted in high pitch counts early in games. Heaney hasn’t recorded more than 16 outs in all of his July starts. Heaney ranks in the 85th percentile in chase rate, according to Baseball Savant, so the Blue Jays will have to take a disciplined approach at the plate to have success against him.

Toronto: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (4-9, 4.54 ERA, 10.14 K/9, 1.31 WHIP)

This will likely be the final start for Kikuchi in a Toronto uniform, with the trade deadline quickly approaching next week. The lefty is on an expiring contract, and several contending teams are rumoured to be interested in his services. Bettors should know that Kikuchi is one of the rare pitchers that has a drastic difference in his day/night splits. He boasts an impressive 3.20 ERA and opponents are hitting just .221 off him in night games, but he’s struggled during day games this year, posting an ugly 6.06 ERA with opponents hitting .316 off him.

Weather

It’ll be a perfect night for baseball in Toronto, with temperatures expected around 24 C and clear skies. Winds will blow in from right field at just 3 mph.

MLB betting trends

The under is 4-1 in the Rangers’ last five games.
The over is 10-1 in Toronto’s last 11 games.
The Rangers are the worst team in the majors on the runline on the road with a 21-30 ATS record.

MLB player prop trends

Kikuchi has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts, averaging 7.8 per game during that span. He’s -160 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
As previously mentioned, Heaney has struggled with his control recently, walking two or more batters in six of his last seven starts. He’s -150 to walk over 1.5 batters.
Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien is slashing .320/.433/.600 over the last seven days with a pair of homers. The former Blue Jay has recorded over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in four straight games and is -145 to do so again Friday.
Guerrero Jr. has found his power stroke recently, launching four home runs over his last six games. He’s +450 to go deep.

Rangers vs. Blue Jays predictions

These are clearly two teams heading in different directions right now, so it’s hard not to like the Rangers on the moneyline at plus money (+105) in this spot.
You have to think Kikuchi will give the Toronto faithful one last hurrah with a solid performance. Take him to record over 5.5 strikeouts (-160).
Both of these teams are prone to giving up home runs, with Toronto coughing up the most in the majors and the Rangers not too far behind. Take a look at the odds for the big bats on Texas: Corey Seager (+475), Adolis Garcia (+275), and Semien (+500). While you’re at it, consider backing the recent power surge from Guerrero Jr. (+450), too.