The Blue Jays were able to show a sense of pride Friday night in bouncing back from a horrific 13-0 loss to the Rays on Thursday. Still, they have played to a record of just 24-28 at home this season and 4-6 over the last ten games.

Kevin Gausman’s inconsistent form has been one cause of the Jays’ disappointing record this season, and he has been awful at Rogers Centre in particular in pitching to an ERA of 6.96 across 53 innings this season. Gausman is a betting favourite once again on Saturday as he takes on Michael Lorenzen, who has pitched to a 3.53 ERA across 97 innings this season.

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Saturday’s matchup between the Rangers and Blue Jays:

Despite the Rangers holding the superior record of these two sides and starting a pitcher with a far superior ERA in this matchup, oddsmakers have tabbed Texas as fairly large underdogs at +120. Therefore it should come as no surprise that Lorenzen features a highly unconvincing underlying profile, as the main story behind this line comes down to oddsmakers’ belief that Gausman is still a superior starter to Lorenzen.

Lorenzen has pitched to an xERA of 4.78, which is over a full run greater than his actual mark. He also holds an ugly 4.87 xFIP and has struck-out just 6.77 batters per nine. He has found success in stranding 82.5% of baserunners this season, which is 8.2% greater than his career average despite the fact that he appears to be allowing more hard contact than ever.

Over the last five starts, Lorenzen has trended closer to his expected results as he has pitched to an ERA of 5.04. His xFIP has actually climbed to 5.49 in that span. The five teams that he has faced in that span also rank at an average of 21.2 in terms of wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Lorenzen has allowed an OPS of .854 versus right-handed batters this season, which is the eighth-highest mark in MLB among starters to throw 40 or more innings. He has been quite tough on lefties though, as they have hit just .139 against Lorenzen this season.

The Rangers bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 3.36 over the last 30 days with an xFIP of 3.93.

Down seasons from Adolis Garcia (86 wRC+) and Jonah Heim (77 wRC+), as well as a number of injuries have caused Texas to struggle to a 4.29 runs scored per game average and a 21st ranked 94 wRC+.

It still seems likely that the defending World Series champs trend towards better form in the season’s back half though, and over the last month of action, the Rangers have been slightly better against righties having hit to a wRC+ of 102 and an OPS of .716.

Gausman’s highly inconsistent form has continued of late, as he has pitched to a 5.40 ERA over his last five starts with an xFIP of 4.54. It’s interesting to note that in those outings he pitched well in all three road outings in San Francisco, Seattle, and Boston, and was hammered in both starts at home versus the Yankees and Tigers.

Gausman has pitched to an xFIP of 4.28 at home this season, compared to his road mark of 3.39. Batters have slugged .533 versus Gausman at Rogers Centre this season, and his strikeout rate is also lesser at home coming in at 21.3%.

It’s been well covered that Gausman hasn’t had quite the same stuff as last season, which has created issues in putting batters away. That notion is supported by his 97 Stuff+ rating compared to last season’s mark of 105.

Over the last month of play, Toronto has hit to a wRC+ of 100 with an OPS of .710 against right-handed pitching.

The excellent play of Spencer Horwitz has been one positive story for Blue Jays fans of late, and that continued in yesterday’s matchup in which Horwitz got a chance to be in the lineup versus a left-handed starter. While statistically it makes some sense for Horwitz to sit versus lefties, it also makes sense to let him develop in those spots given the outlook of the team. He had some highly encouraging at-bats in yesterday’s matchup versus two lefties being Andrew Heaney and Jacob Latz, and could be a bat to watch in today’s matchup.

Despite the lesser offensive form of these two sides this season, this looks like a good spot to target a higher-scoring matchup and a total of 8.5 looks a touch low.

The Rangers offence underwhelmed in the season’s first two-thirds, and it seems reasonable to think they can play closer to expectations in the season’s final third as they push for the division.

Gausman is better than his ERA suggests, but it is clear that he isn’t quite the pitcher he once was this season. And even if Gausman is to have one of his best outings of the season at Rogers Centre in this matchup the Blue Jays bullpen is highly capable of a significant blowup in any matchup right now.

Meanwhile, Lorenzen looks like a pure fade candidate right now, and it’s not giving the Jays’ lineup much credit to think it can do some damage against him in this matchup.

At anything better than -115 there is value backing this game to go over 8.5.