MLB Betting Preview (July 29): Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions
Photo credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Jul 29, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 29, 2024, 11:49 EDT
After sweeping the Texas Rangers in a three-game series over the weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays will play a doubleheader Monday against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.
The first tilt of the day will get underway at 3:05 p.m. ET, while the makeup game from May 14 will be played later in the evening.
The Orioles, who hold a one-game lead over the New York Yankees for the American League East lead entering play Monday, dropped two of three games to the San Diego Padres at home over the weekend. They also lost two of three to the lowly Miami Marlins prior to that.
Let’s dive into the game odds for the first contest of Monday’s doubleheader between the Blue Jays and Orioles courtesy of bet365:
Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +160 |
Orioles Moneyline Odds | -190 |
Runline Odds | Orioles -1.5 (+105), Blue Jays +1.5 (-125) |
Over/Under | Over 9 runs (+100), Under 9 runs (-120) |
Time/Date | July 29, 3:05 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (49-56 SU, 52-53 ATS, 56-46-3 o/u)
The demolition of Toronto’s roster is already underway, with Yimi Garcia, Danny Jansen, and Nate Pearson finding new homes leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. More trades involving Toronto’s players will sure develop over the next three days, so bettors will want to pay close attention to the news cycle before locking in any wagers on games involving the Blue Jays. Kevin Kiermaier, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justin Turner are just some of the rumoured names that could be on the move.
Despite the off-field distractions of the trade deadline, the Blue Jays have been playing pretty well on the field, posting a 5-4 record since the All-Star break. Bettors should note that Toronto has played over the total in five straight games and 13 of its last 14 contests.
The Blue Jays and Orioles have split six previous meetings this year, playing to a 3-3 over/under mark in those contests.
Betting Baltimore Orioles (62-43 SU, 56-49 ATS, 55-39-11 o/u)
Baltimore has also been busy wheeling and dealing with the trade deadline fast approaching, acquiring right-hander Seranthony Dominguez, outfielder Christian Pache, and right-hander Zach Eflin over the last few days. With one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, the Orioles are in a position to make a big slash on the trade market, with rumours swirling they’re targeting front-end starters like Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty, Blake Snell, Tarik Skubal, and Kikuchi, among others.
Offensively, the team is crushing the ball, scoring the most runs per game in the majors (five). They boast the league’s best slugging percentage as a team (.449) and have also hit the most home runs (163). Expect to see some fireworks in this series with the Blue Jays, who have allowed the most homers in the league (140) to this point.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Yariel Rodriguez (1-3, 3.69 ERA, 9.69 K/9, 1.26 WHIP)
Rodriguez has been fantastic this month, posting a 2.01 ERA while averaging more than a strikeout per inning over four starts. However, his limited pitch count is concerning, as he’s failed to throw more than 83 pitches in a single start this year. He’ll have the element of surprise in this one, as no one on the Baltimore roster has faced him before.
Baltimore: RHP Zach Eflin (5-7, 4.09 ERA, 7.12 K/9, 1.16 WHIP)
Eflin will be making his Baltimore debut after being acquired three days ago from the Rays. He pitched last Wednesday for Tampa against the Blue Jays, allowing two runs while striking out four in 5 2/3 innings of work. This will be his fourth start against Toronto this season and the Blue Jays are hitting a lofty .296 against him in that span.
Weather
It’s going to be a hot one in Baltimore, with temperatures around 33 C expected for the first afternoon game. Winds will be blowing out to left field at 10 mph.
MLB betting trends
- Toronto has played over the total in 13 of its last 14 games.
- The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 21 of their last 30 road games.
- The over is 6-0 in Baltimore’s last six games.
MLB player prop trends
- Rodriguez has struck out six batters or more in each of his last four starts. He’s +115 to record over 4.5 strikeouts.
- Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser is taking a nine-game hitting streak into action Monday and he has three multi-hit games in that span. He’s -200 to record a hit and +150 to record over 1.5 total bases.
- Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho has homered in back-to-back games, but he’s struggled against Baltimore this season, slashing .182/.250/.500 with a home run in 22 at-bats. He’s +600 to homer.
- Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has really found his power stroke lately, slugging six home runs over his last 11 games. He’s also +600 to homer.
- Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander has scored a run in seven straight games and nine of his last 10. He’s +100 to plate on Monday afternoon.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions
- The weather conditions are favouring the hitters this afternoon, so target some of the big bats on both teams to go deep. Guerrero Jr. (+600) has had some success against Eflin, posting a 1.188 OPS and two home runs in 16 career at-bats against the righty. And for Baltimore, Adley Rutschman (+650 to homer) has destroyed Blue Jays pitching this year, posting a 1.444 OPS with five homers and nine RBIs in 25 at-bats against Toronto. Remember, the Blue Jays have surrendered the most home runs in the majors to this point and Baltimore has hit the most home runs.
- Blue Jays moneyline (+160). The Blue Jays have seen a lot of Eflin already this year, and they’ve had his number, tagging him for 12 runs in just over 17 innings pitched. They have the edge in the starting pitching department in the early game, and the much fresher bullpen heading into the doubleheader. Toronto didn’t use a single reliever on Saturday and needed just two on Sunday, while six Baltimore relievers have thrown 20 pitches or more over the last three days. There’s value in the underdog here, especially with Toronto building some momentum with its sweep of the Rangers.