<p>After losing a series to the red-hot Houston Astros, the slumping Toronto Blue Jays will try to finally get their season unstuck against another good AL West team, the Seattle Mariners.</p>
<p>The Jays, who look increasingly likely to trade off big-name veterans to shed salary and restock their farm system before the July 30 trade deadline, are +125 underdogs in Friday’s 9:40 p.m. ET game at Safeco Field. Bookmakers at Bet365 have set the over-under total at 7.5 runs.</p>
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<h3>Betting Toronto Blue Jays (39-48 OU, 39-48 ATS, 41-44-2 o/u)</h3>
<p>Increasingly, the buzz around this team is whether they’ll part with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yusei Kikuchi and other impactful major leaguers before the deadline. At 39-48, they’re almost certain to be below .500 when the deadline arrives and Kikuchi seems among the likeliest Blue Jays to go, particularly with Toronto’s No. 1 prospect, Ricky Tiedmann, just a phone call away at Triple-A. Chris Bassitt, too, could be a trade chip and Bassitt did nothing to quell that discussion with five so-so innings in a 5-3 loss to the Astros on Thursday.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays were somewhat disappointing last season as well, but they were able to reach the post-season almost entirely on the basis of a strong pitching staff that performed to a 3.83 ERA. This season, the pitching has been generally solid, but more inconsistent and has performed to a 4.03 ERA. The common denominator is a bad offence. The Jays this season rank 18<sup>th</sup> in MLB with a .686 OPS.</p>
<p>Guerrero (.840 OPS) is proving he can still hit with some of the best hitters in the game, but George Springer (.640 OPS), Alejandro Kirk (.573) and Kevin Kiermeier (.507) have had dreadful seasons as have many of their fellow Blue Jays position players. This team looks like it’s ready for a reboot and it might start soon.</p>
<h3>Betting Seattle Mariners (48-41 OU, 39-50 ATS, 36-47-6 o/u)</h3>
<p>Though squarely in the American League wild-card race, Seattle’s fans have had reasons for concern lately, primarily with a slumping offence. The Mariners managed just two hits on Tuesday, then five on Wednesday. They didn’t exactly scatter hits all over the field in Thursday’s 7-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles, but they made their seven hits count, because two of them were home runs and another two were doubles.</p>
<p>“The story is the same old story,” Seattle manager Scott Servais said recently. “We’re going to get our offense going.”</p>
<p>Most concerning of all is a nearly month-long slump for star center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who was batting .125 with 14 strikeouts in his last 56 at-bats without an extra-base hit since early June entering Thursday. One of the emerging faces of baseball following All-Star seasons in 2022 and 2023, Rodriguez is batting .237 with a .632 OPS and is on pace to set a career-high for strikeouts.</p>
<p>Lucky for Seattle, it certainly can pitch. The Mariners’ staff ERA (3.56) ranks fifth in MLB after the Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.</p>
<h2>Probable starting pitchers</h2>
<p><strong>Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (6-7, 4.75 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 1.34 WHIP)</strong></p>
<p>Gausman opened up after his last start, in which he gave up seven runs in just 5 1/3 innings vs. the New York Yankees. Gausman explained some of his struggles this season, just a year removed from a solid run at the Cy Young award. He began his season on shaky footing coming out of a spring training in which tightness in his shoulder delayed him a bit. Gausman can no longer rely on the split-finger pitch that made him such a strikeout accumulator in previous seasons. He also hinted that opponents find it easier to decipher his pitch sequencing given the length of time he has now pitched in the American League.</p>
<p>The bottom line, Jays fans can attest, is far worse results. Gausman has actually been below replacement level in 2024, with a 4.75 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP and he’s allowing an average of more than a home run per start for the first time since 2020. He can still strike batters out at a fairly impressive clip, but home runs have been a particular bugaboo. Gausman has allowed five long balls in his last 16 innings.</p>
<p><strong>Seattle: RHP Luis Castillo (6-9, 3.87 ERA, 8.89 K/9, 1.21 WHIP)</strong></p>
<p>One of the most reliable starting pitchers in the game for nearly a decade, Castillo hasn’t been at his sharpest in recent outings. He followed a fairly rough outing vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, in which he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings with a similar effort against the Minnesota Twins. Overall, though, Castillo still knows how to pile up quality innings. He also happens to lead the American League with nine losses.</p>
<p>Castillo’s strikeout rate (23.8%) is his lowest since 2018 and his 1.20 home runs per nine innings is his second-highest since the same year. None of this is to suggest the Jays’ struggling offence will have a field day, however. Castillo’s 95 mph fastball still ranks in the 89<sup>th</sup> percentage for run value and his 84% chase rate ranks in the 84<sup>th</sup>.</p>
<h3>Weather</h3>
<p>Forecasters expect nothing but fair skies Friday night in Seattle, where temperatures are expected to be about 21 C at first pitch, with winds blowing gently out to right field. The roof should be open.</p>
<h2>MLB betting trends</h2>
<p>Toronto is 4-12 straight-up in its last 16 games, fueling the mounting speculation it will be a deadline seller.</p>
<p>Both teams rank in the bottom half of the majors when it comes to hitting overs. In fact, Seattle has exceeded the total in just 42% of its games, making it the most under-heavy team aside from the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.</p>
<p>The Mariners have found it particularly tough to score at home. Of their last 45 home games, only 14 have exceeded the assigned total.</p>
<p>As poorly as Toronto is playing lately, they have actually been a decent bet on the road lately. They are 22-20 in their last 42 road games against the spread.</p>
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<h3>MLB player prop trends</h3>
<p>As poorly as Rodriguez has performed relative to past performance, his .247 batting average leads the team. Among qualified MLB hitters, however, he ranks 122<sup>nd</sup> in home runs and 133 in RBIs.</p>
<p>It’s hard to call Rodriguez hot just yet. Though he has a modest two-game hitting streak, he is still batting .190 with just two extra-base hits in his last five games.</p>
<p>Guerrero is riding a 10-game hitting streak. In his last 10 games, he’s batting .429 with six doubles and five home runs.</p>
<h3>Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions</h3>
<p>The hottest hitter on the field, Guerrero, offers tantalizing +115 odds to exceed 1.5 total bases here. Vladdy hasn’t done much against Castillo in the past, with zero home runs and just two hits in eight at-bats, but small sample sizes can be misleading. Consider backing Vlad in this one.</p>
<p>While both teams have tended to hammer the under this season, recent trends suggest both offences are beginning to gain just a bit of traction. Also, the 7.5-run total seems too low given the trajectory both starting pitchers are on. Gausman, in particular, doesn’t warrant that kind of respect these days. Consider taking the over.</p>

After losing a series to the red-hot Houston Astros, the slumping Toronto Blue Jays will try to finally get their season unstuck against another good AL West team, the Seattle Mariners.

The Jays, who look increasingly likely to trade off big-name veterans to shed salary and restock their farm system before the July 30 trade deadline, are +125 underdogs in Friday’s 9:40 p.m. ET game at Safeco Field. Bookmakers at Bet365 have set the over-under total at 7.5 runs.


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<h3>Betting Toronto Blue Jays (39-48 OU, 39-48 ATS, 41-44-2 o/u)</h3>
Increasingly, the buzz around this team is whether they’ll part with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yusei Kikuchi and other impactful major leaguers before the deadline. At 39-48, they’re almost certain to be below .500 when the deadline arrives and Kikuchi seems among the likeliest Blue Jays to go, particularly with Toronto’s No. 1 prospect, Ricky Tiedmann, just a phone call away at Triple-A. Chris Bassitt, too, could be a trade chip and Bassitt did nothing to quell that discussion with five so-so innings in a 5-3 loss to the Astros on Thursday.

The Blue Jays were somewhat disappointing last season as well, but they were able to reach the post-season almost entirely on the basis of a strong pitching staff that performed to a 3.83 ERA. This season, the pitching has been generally solid, but more inconsistent and has performed to a 4.03 ERA. The common denominator is a bad offence. The Jays this season rank 18<sup>th</sup> in MLB with a .686 OPS.

Guerrero (.840 OPS) is proving he can still hit with some of the best hitters in the game, but George Springer (.640 OPS), Alejandro Kirk (.573) and Kevin Kiermeier (.507) have had dreadful seasons as have many of their fellow Blue Jays position players. This team looks like it’s ready for a reboot and it might start soon.
<h3>Betting Seattle Mariners (48-41 OU, 39-50 ATS, 36-47-6 o/u)</h3>
Though squarely in the American League wild-card race, Seattle’s fans have had reasons for concern lately, primarily with a slumping offence. The Mariners managed just two hits on Tuesday, then five on Wednesday. They didn’t exactly scatter hits all over the field in Thursday’s 7-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles, but they made their seven hits count, because two of them were home runs and another two were doubles.

“The story is the same old story,” Seattle manager Scott Servais said recently. “We’re going to get our offense going.”

Most concerning of all is a nearly month-long slump for star center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who was batting .125 with 14 strikeouts in his last 56 at-bats without an extra-base hit since early June entering Thursday. One of the emerging faces of baseball following All-Star seasons in 2022 and 2023, Rodriguez is batting .237 with a .632 OPS and is on pace to set a career-high for strikeouts.

Lucky for Seattle, it certainly can pitch. The Mariners’ staff ERA (3.56) ranks fifth in MLB after the Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.
<h2>Probable starting pitchers</h2>
<strong>Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (6-7, 4.75 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 1.34 WHIP)</strong>

Gausman opened up after his last start, in which he gave up seven runs in just 5 1/3 innings vs. the New York Yankees. Gausman explained some of his struggles this season, just a year removed from a solid run at the Cy Young award. He began his season on shaky footing coming out of a spring training in which tightness in his shoulder delayed him a bit. Gausman can no longer rely on the split-finger pitch that made him such a strikeout accumulator in previous seasons. He also hinted that opponents find it easier to decipher his pitch sequencing given the length of time he has now pitched in the American League.

The bottom line, Jays fans can attest, is far worse results. Gausman has actually been below replacement level in 2024, with a 4.75 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP and he’s allowing an average of more than a home run per start for the first time since 2020. He can still strike batters out at a fairly impressive clip, but home runs have been a particular bugaboo. Gausman has allowed five long balls in his last 16 innings.

<strong>Seattle: RHP Luis Castillo (6-9, 3.87 ERA, 8.89 K/9, 1.21 WHIP)</strong>

One of the most reliable starting pitchers in the game for nearly a decade, Castillo hasn’t been at his sharpest in recent outings. He followed a fairly rough outing vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, in which he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings with a similar effort against the Minnesota Twins. Overall, though, Castillo still knows how to pile up quality innings. He also happens to lead the American League with nine losses.

Castillo’s strikeout rate (23.8%) is his lowest since 2018 and his 1.20 home runs per nine innings is his second-highest since the same year. None of this is to suggest the Jays’ struggling offence will have a field day, however. Castillo’s 95 mph fastball still ranks in the 89<sup>th</sup> percentage for run value and his 84% chase rate ranks in the 84<sup>th</sup>.
<h3>Weather</h3>
Forecasters expect nothing but fair skies Friday night in Seattle, where temperatures are expected to be about 21 C at first pitch, with winds blowing gently out to right field. The roof should be open.
<h2>MLB betting trends</h2>
Toronto is 4-12 straight-up in its last 16 games, fueling the mounting speculation it will be a deadline seller.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the majors when it comes to hitting overs. In fact, Seattle has exceeded the total in just 42% of its games, making it the most under-heavy team aside from the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.

The Mariners have found it particularly tough to score at home. Of their last 45 home games, only 14 have exceeded the assigned total.

As poorly as Toronto is playing lately, they have actually been a decent bet on the road lately. They are 22-20 in their last 42 road games against the spread.
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<h3>MLB player prop trends</h3>
As poorly as Rodriguez has performed relative to past performance, his .247 batting average leads the team. Among qualified MLB hitters, however, he ranks 122<sup>nd</sup> in home runs and 133 in RBIs.

It’s hard to call Rodriguez hot just yet. Though he has a modest two-game hitting streak, he is still batting .190 with just two extra-base hits in his last five games.

Guerrero is riding a 10-game hitting streak. In his last 10 games, he’s batting .429 with six doubles and five home runs.
<h3>Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions</h3>
The hottest hitter on the field, Guerrero, offers tantalizing +115 odds to exceed 1.5 total bases here. Vladdy hasn’t done much against Castillo in the past, with zero home runs and just two hits in eight at-bats, but small sample sizes can be misleading. Consider backing Vlad in this one.

While both teams have tended to hammer the under this season, recent trends suggest both offences are beginning to gain just a bit of traction. Also, the 7.5-run total seems too low given the trajectory both starting pitchers are on. Gausman, in particular, doesn’t warrant that kind of respect these days. Consider taking the over.

MLB Betting Preview (July 5): Blue Jays vs. Mariners Predictions

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