MLB Betting Preview (July 9): Blue Jays vs. Giants predictions

San Francisco Giants third baseman Matt Chapman (26) throws to first base in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.

Photo credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Jul 9, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 9, 2024, 12:15 EDT

After a day off Monday, the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series with the Giants in San Francisco on Tuesday night.

Toronto took two of three games from the Mariners in Seattle over the weekend to begin its nine-game road trip on the West Coast. After three games in San Francisco, the Jays will travel to Arizona for three more games prior to the All-Star break.

After taking the series opener on Friday, the Giants lost back-to-back games to the Guardians in Cleveland over the weekend. They’ll now play six home games before the break with the aim of closing the gap in the National League wild-card race. San Francisco is 3.5 games back of the final playoff spot currently held by the San Diego Padres.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Giants courtesy of bet365:

Blue Jays vs. Giants odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	+110
Giants Moneyline Odds	-130
Runline Odds	Giants -1.5 (+165), Blue Jays +1.5 (-200)
Over/Under	Over 7.5 runs (-125), Under 7.5 runs (+105)
Time/Date	July 9, 9:45 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (41-49 SU, 44-46 ATS, 43-44-3 o/u)

The Blue Jays are running out of time to convince team management to keep the current squad together and push for a playoff berth. They’re 8.5 games back of a wild-card berth in the American League and they have just a 2.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.

Scoring runs continues to be a problem, but the team did put up five runs in consecutive games over the weekend against a very talented Seattle pitching staff. George Springer appears to finally be snapping out of his season-long funk, slashing a very impressive .395/.480/.814 with five home runs and 16 RBIs over the last 15 days. Alejandro Kirk has also had a subpar season offensively, but he’s also been hot lately, slashing .385/.412/.538 over the last seven days.

One of Toronto’s best offensive performers this season, infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, is on the injured list with a knee injury. However, reliever Yimi Garcia appears close to returning from an elbow injury after beginning a rehab assignment in the minors over the weekend.

Betting San Francisco Giants (44-47 SU, 44-47 ATS, 50-38-3 o/u)

The Giants signed former Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman to a three-year, $54 million contract this past offseason and the early returns have been positive, as the veteran leads the team with 12 home runs, 42 RBIs, and 82 hits while also playing exceptional defence. Chapman played two seasons in Toronto and earned a Gold Glove Award last season while playing for the Jays. Many fans were disappointed when Toronto failed to retain Chapman’s services, but his replacement, Kiner-Falefa, is also having a fine season for the Jays, which has at least temporarily taken the sting out of his departure.

Historically, San Francisco has been known for having solid pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this year. The team is coughing up 4.7 runs per game (21st in the majors), the pitching staff has a combined 4.44 ERA (25th in the majors), and opposing batters are hitting .261 against them (28th in baseball).

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 4.12 ERA, 9.38 K/9, 1.31 WHIP)

After three disappointing starts, Kikuchi finally got back on track last week against the Houston Astros. The lefty, who is the subject of trade rumours with his contract set to expire later this year, threw 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against Houston. This could be one of his final starts for the Blue Jays with the trade deadline looming at the end of the month. Surprisingly, Kikuchi has never made a start at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in his six-year MLB career.

San Francisco: LHP Blake Snell (0-3, 9.51 ERA, 11.79 K/9, 1.94 WHIP)

It’s been an absolute nightmare of a season for the 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner. Snell, who has battled multiple groin injuries this year, is still seeking his first win of the season. He’s failed to pitch past the fifth inning in all six of his starts and he’ll be reinstated from the injured list Tuesday after rehabbing in the minors. Opposing batters are barreling him up at an 11% rate, and hitting a whopping .415 off his fastball this season. However, Snell is still an elite strikeout artist, boasting a lofty 11.79 K/9 rate. The Giants must feel cheated after signing Snell to a two-year, $62 million contract in March.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for clear skies and temperatures around 15 C at first pitch. Winds will blow out to left field at 10 mph.

MLB betting trends

The over is 11-3 in Toronto’s last 14 games.
The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 16 of their last 24 road games.
The Giants have played over the total in 50 of their 91 games this year (best over team in MLB).

MLB player prop trends

Snell has posted five or more strikeouts in three straight starts and in four of his six outings this season. He’s -150 to record over 4.5 strikeouts.
Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has struck out in seven straight games and nine of his last 10. He’s -170 to strike out.
Springer has recorded a hit in 10 of his last 12 games. He’s -185 to get a hit and holds a career .308 batting average against Snell in 13 at-bats.

Blue Jays vs. Giants predictions

Chapman is in a classic revenge spot against his former club and he’s had some success against Kikuchi in his career (1.109 OPS with two homers in 16 at-bats). Consider him to exceed 1.5 total bases (around even money if you shop around) and you can find his home run odds at over +400 odds if you want to wager on him really sticking it to his former team. You’ll pay a steep price on him to get a hit (around -250), though.
Blue Jays moneyline: +110. Back the Jays at plus money in this spot against the unpredictability of Snell. Toronto has some offensive momentum from the weekend and it wouldn’t be surprising if Snell impodes in this one given his circumstances. Kikuchi should deliver a strong outing at San Francisco’s cavernous ballpark.