MLB Betting Preview (June 14): Guardians vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) tosses his gum at the end of the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Jun 14, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Jun 14, 2024, 11:11 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays are back in action Friday, kicking off a six-game homestand with a three-game set against the visiting Cleveland Guardians.

Toronto dropped two of three games to the Milwaukee Brewers earlier in the week after taking two of three from the Athletics in Oakland.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has had a light week after getting Monday and Thursday off. The Guardians split a quick two-game series with the Reds in Cincinnati on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Toronto and Cleveland enjoyed off days on Thursday, so both bullpens will be rested for this matchup.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Guardians and Blue Jays via bet365:

Guardians vs. Blue Jays odds

Guardians Moneyline Odds	+120
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	-140
Runline Odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+155), Guardians +1.5 (-185)
Over/Under	Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 runs (-105)
Time/Date	June 14, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Sportsnet 1, Sportsnet+

Betting Cleveland Guardians (43-23 SU, 38-28 ATS, 30-30-6 o/u)

The Guardians opened with +300 odds to win the American League Central Division at bet365, and now they find themselves with a hearty five-game lead over the Kansas City Royals for the division lead entering play Friday. Oddsmakers initially tabbed the Minnesota Twins as favourites to win the division (around -120 odds), but they’re just five games over .500 after a slow start to the season.

Cleveland is getting the job done on both sides of the ball, averaging five runs per game (fourth in the majors) while allowing just 3.7 (fifth in MLB). The Guardians have a +90-run differential, the third-best margin in the AL, and their pitching staff boasts a .343 ERA, the sixth lowest in baseball.

Third baseman Jose Ramirez and first baseman Josh Naylor have been doing most of the damage for the Guardians, combining for 35 homers and 102 RBIs through 66 games. Outfielder David Fry is also having a breakout campaign, slashing .321/.452/.565 to this point.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (33-35 SU, 34-34 ATS, 29-37-2 o/u)

Buckle up, Blue Jays fans, as we’re about to find out what this team is made of. The team’s next 16 games are against opponents with .500 records or better, including six contests against the AL Central-leading Guardians and four against the AL East-leading Yankees. Toronto will also play the Boston Red Sox, who always seem to play well against them, six times during this stretch. It should be very apparent after this brutal stretch of games whether the Blue Jays are wild-card contenders or not. If they can’t play around .500 baseball for the remainder of the month, they very well could be sellers in July.

Offensively, the Blue Jays continue to struggle as manager John Schneider experiments with finding the right lineup. Spencer Horwitz was moved into the leadoff spot Wednesday in an attempt to spark the bats and he responded with two hits. Don’t be surprised if he’s back in that spot again Friday, or maybe even promoted to the two-hole, as the Jays desperately seek an offensive spark. They’re averaging just 3.9 runs per game, tied for 24th in the majors.

Probable starting pitchers

Cleveland: LHP Logan Allen (6-3, 5.57 ERA, 7.52 K/9, 1.52 WHIP)

It’s been a nightmarish season for Allen to this point, but he’s coming off a decent outing against the Miami Marlins. He threw six innings of two-run ball in that start but he was taken deep twice. In fact, the long ball has been a serious problem for Allen this year, as he’s surrendered 14 homers in just under 65 innings pitched. Allen relies heavily on locating his pitches, as his fastball, which he uses almost 50% of the time, only averages 91 mph. Batters are hitting a juicy .352 off his heater this season. He’ll also throw a changeup to right-handed hitters and mix in a cutter and a sweeper.

Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (5-4, 4.00 ERA, 8.91 K/9, 1.25 WHIP)

Gausman pitched a gem the last time he took the mound, throwing a complete-game shutout against the Oakland Athletics. He struck out 10 batters while scattering five hits on 109 pitches. Gausman was roughed up by the Baltimore Orioles for six earned runs and three homers in his previous start before that, though. It should be noted that Gausman’s home/away splits are alarming. He owns a lofty 6.68 ERA and opposing batters are hitting .321 against him in 31 innings at Rogers Centre this season. However, on the road, he sports a microscopic 1.86 ERA and opponents are hitting .201 against him over almost 39 innings.

Weather

It should be a perfect night for baseball in Toronto, with temperatures expected around 20 C with clear skies. Winds will be blowing out to left field at 11 mph. The retractable roof at Rogers Centre should be open.

MLB betting trends

The under is 5-1 in Cleveland’s last six games.
The under is 4-1-1 in Toronto’s last six games.
The Guardians are 21-16 on the runline away from home this year.

MLB player prop trends

Allen has struggled with his control this year, walking two or more batters in three straight starts and seven of his last 10. He’s -200 to issue two or more walks.
Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan is carrying an eight-game hitting streak into action Friday. He’s compiled multi-hit efforts in five of those eight games and is +200 to record two or more hits. Kwan has also scored a run in six straight games and is +115 to do so again Friday.
Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho has struck out at least once in five straight games and six of his last seven. He’s -190 to strike out at least once Friday.

Guardians vs. Blue Jays predictions

Over 8 runs: -115. Gausman has been terrible at Rogers Centre this season and Allen is very prone to the long ball. It’s also supposed to be a warm evening in Toronto with the winds blowing out. Throw in the fact that Toronto owns one of the worst bullpens in the league (4.88 ERA and yielded a league-leading 42 home runs) and we have the conditions for a high-scoring affair on Friday night.
The conditions are favourable for some home runs in this matchup, but now we have to handicap who is the most likely to go deep and if there’s any value in betting on that line. I’m going to zero in on Davis Schneider (+375), who went deep Wednesday and is 2-for-2 with a home run and two walks in his career against Allen. He doesn’t hit lefties well (.189/.270/.396 slash line) but three of his eight homers have been off southpaws this season. There isn’t a player on the Cleveland roster with a career home run against Gausman, but if I had to pick one player to do deep, it would be Josh Naylor (+475). The Canadian is 2-for-6 in his career against Gausman and he’ll be pumped up playing in front of friends and family back in Canada. He boasts a career .803 OPS at Rogers Centre with a home run and five RBIs in 27 at-bats at the venue.