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MLB betting preview (June 18): Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Photo credit: © Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Nicholas Martin
Jun 18, 2025, 11:10 EDT
The Blue Jays snapped their three-game losing skid with an impressive comeback victory Tuesday, thanks to back-to-back solo home runs from Bo Bichette and Addison Barger in the ninth inning. Oddsmakers have priced the second game of the series as a pick-em, as Eduardo Rodriguez (6.27 ERA, 40 and 2/3 IP) will take on Eric Lauer (2.37 ERA, 30 and 1/3 IP).
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Cardinals, courtesy of bet365.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays odds

Diamondbacks moneyline odds
-110
Blue Jays moneyline odds
-110
Runline odds
Diamondbacks +1.5 (-220), Blue Jays -1.5 (+180)
Game total
Over 9 runs (-110), Under 9 runs (-110)
Date/time
June 17, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Diamondbacks (37-35 SU, 35-36 ATS, 34-33-4 o/u)

Shaky pitching in all situations continues to plague the Diamondbacks, who saw Shelby Miller blow his fourth save of the season Tuesday evening after Brandon Pfaadt put together one of his better outings of the season. Miller’s four blown saves are the fourth-highest total in MLB, and the Diamondbacks’ depleted bullpen now holds an ERA of 5.05 over the last 30 days.
With Jordan Montgomery out for the season and Corbin Burnes still on the IL, the Diamondbacks really need starters such as Rodriguez to start posting better results if they are to begin pushing for a playoff berth.
Rodriguez finished the 2024 campaign with a disappointing 5.04 ERA and has been even worse this season, with a 6.27 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Rodriguez’s underlying results do suggest positive regression could be on the horizon, as he holds a 3.86 xERA and 3.96 xFIP. He’s stranded base runners just 58.7% of the time, which is the worst mark of his career by a wide margin.
Rodriguez has pitched twice since missing three weeks of action with shoulder inflammation and has put up a 3.18 ERA across 11 and 1/3 innings of work. In those outings, his Stuff+ rating dropped somewhat significantly to 88, however, and he held an xFIP of 4.48.
As we touched on prior to yesterday’s matchup, the Diamondbacks’ offensive play has remained excellent this season, and their lineup had a solid showing in the series opener, managing three earned runs off a high-quality starter in Chris Bassitt, as well as eight hits. They struck out seven times and held an xBA of .293.
The Diamondbacks have been considerably less effective versus left-handed pitching this season, as they hold a wRC+ of 91, compared to a mark of 123 versus righties.
Arizona’s lineup was without one key piece Tuesday after Gabriel Moreno was a late scratch with hand soreness, and the former Blue Jay’s status for this matchup is unclear. Moreno has slugged .422 versus left-handed pitching this season.

About the Blue Jays (39-33 SU, 42-30 ATS, 37-32-3 o/u)

Lauer has bounced back and forth between usage as a traditional starter and a bulk reliever this season, but regardless of what situation John Schneider has turned to him in, he’s been quite effective. After finishing the 2024 season with a 6.56 ERA, Lauer has been a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays, as he enters today’s matchup with a 2.37 ERA across 30 and 1/3 innings of work.
Lauer’s underlying numbers suggest he may be due some negative regression, but that he has still pitched at a better-than-average level this season. He holds a 3.26 xERA and 4.42 xFIP, and he’s allowed a career-low line drive rate of 14.1%.
Mason Fluharty has entered in each of the last two games and thrown 41 pitches, but the rest of Toronto’s bullpen is in good shape and should be well situated to handle five to six innings, as will likely be needed with Lauer starting. Over the last 30 days, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 3.28 with a 3.81 xFIP.
Earlier in the year, last night’s game would have felt out of reach once the Diamondbacks tacked on an insurance run in the top of the seventh inning to make it 4-2. As has often been the case lately, however, the Blue Jays’ offense came through with some timely runs to steal a win.
The Blue Jays rank fourth in wRC+ over the last 30 days and fourth in wOBA. They hold the best BB/K ratio in MLB in that span by a wide margin and rank sixth in hard-hit rate.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Blue Jays are 10-1 in their last ten home games.
  • The Diamondbacks are 4-9 in their last 12 road games.
  • Ketel Marte has had 17 ABs versus Lauer throughout his career, and has hit .412 with a 1.236 OPS.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays best bets

  • Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline: -110 for one unit (best odds @ Bet365). Rodriguez has struggled mightily this season, and his pitch metrics have actually regressed since returning from shoulder inflammation. He’s not only struggled at batter-friendly Chase Field either, as he’s pitched to a 6.91 ERA on the road with a 1.71 WHIP.  The Blue Jays have been surging offensively of late and have displayed an excellent process at the plate, which has led to plenty of hard contact with very few strikeouts.
Toronto’s bullpen also projects as an advantage compared to Arizona’s, which is noteworthy in this game where neither starter is likely to last overly long.

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