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MLB betting preview (June 19): Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Photo credit: © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Nicholas Martin
Jun 19, 2025, 10:14 EDT
The Blue Jays will look to complete a three-game sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon when Ryne Nelson (4.14 ERA, 50 IP) takes on Kevin Gausman (4.08 ERA, 81 and 2/3 IP).
Toronto is in the midst of a 24-13 stretch of play and is now only 2.5 games back of the New York Yankees in the division, who are amid a six-game losing skid. Following the series finale on Thursday, the Blue Jays will host the Chicago White Sox for a three-game series over the weekend.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Cardinals, courtesy of bet365.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays odds

Diamondbacks moneyline odds
+120
Blue Jays moneyline odds
-140
Runline odds
Diamondbacks +1.5 (-220), Blue Jays -1.5 (+180)
Game total
Over 8.5 runs (-120), Under 8.5 runs (+100)
Date/time
June 19, 3:07 p.m. ET

About the Diamondbacks (36-37 SU, 35-38 ATS, 36-33-3 o/u)

Thursday’s matchup currently features the lowest betting total of this series. Nelson has been in the best form of any of the three starters Toronto will face in this series, while the Diamondbacks’ lineup could be without a key bat in Corbin Carroll.
Carroll was hit by a pitch in the eighth inning of Wednesday’s matchup but did stay in the game to run the bases. X-rays came back negative after the game, and it is unclear if Carroll will be available in this matchup. Carroll holds a .573 slugging rate overall this season, as well as a .696 slugging rate and .985 OPS in June. Gabriel Moreno is considered probable to return to the lineup in Thursday’s matchup after missing the last four games with a hand injury.
Nelson was tagged for seven earned runs in an ugly outing at batter-friendly Great American Ballpark on June 7th, but has otherwise been in solid form recently. Over his last five starts, he holds a 3.04 ERA and has allowed one earned run or less in four of those five outings. Nelson has allowed a WHIP of 1.14 this season and only 0.72 home runs per nine. He’s stranded only 65.5% of base runners, but despite that weakness, he has managed a respectable 4.14 ERA, as batters have hit just .217 overall versus Nelson. His five-pitch mix grades out quite well, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 106 and a Pitching+ rating of 106 this season. Nelson holds a 2.84 ERA in two career starts versus the Blue Jays.
The Diamondbacks‘ bullpen had not been overly effective entering this series, and the Blue Jays have taken advantage, earning nine runs in the seven and 1/3 innings Arizona’s relievers have pitched in this series. They finished the 2024 season with a fifth-ranked wRC+ rating of 113 versus right-handed pitching and have been even more dominant against righties this season with a second-ranked wRC+ of 122.
They hold the second-best weighted Fastball runs above average rating in the league and have been the seventh most productive team in the league versus splitters. Alongside their overall splits versus righties, those numbers suggest they are a difficult matchup for Gausman.

About the Blue Jays (40-33 SU, 42-30 ATS, 39-32-2 o/u)

After two dominant outings versus the Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres, Gausman has allowed 10 earned runs across his last three starts.
While Gausman has not found much success where it matters throughout his last three outings, his underlying results have been solid. He owns a 3.57 xFIP over the last three starts and has struck out 10.91 batters per nine. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 99 across those three matchups and a Pitching+ rating of 103. Gausman has pitched well at home so far this season, as he holds a 3.31 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across 35 and 1/3 innings of work at Rogers Centre.
Jonaton Clase and Myles Straw are listed as day-to-day after suffering injuries in consecutive innings on Wednesday. With Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, and Anthony Santander also on the IL, the Blue Jays outfield looks to be a concern entering this matchup.
The top of the Blue Jays‘ order has been dominant in this series, as Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Addison Barger have combined for 17 hits in the first two matchups.
Over the last 30 days, the Blue Jays rank third in wRC+ and have slugged .436. They have hit the eighth most home runs in the league over the last month, which has been a nice change of pace after the team’s inability to hit for power early on in the season.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Blue Jays are 11-1 in their last ten home games.
  • The Diamondbacks are 4-10 in their last 14 road games.
  • The Blue Jays hold the best record against the spread in MLB.
  • Ketel Marte has batted just .091 in 22 career at-bats versus Gausman.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays best bets

  • Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline: +120 for one unit (best odds @ Bet365). Ryne Nelson has been in strong form recently, and his pitch metrics suggest he has the stuff to be an above-average starter this season. The Diamondbacks’ lineup matches up well versus Gausman, who enters this matchup in a slightly less dominant stretch of play.
It’s not overly appealing to fade the Blue Jays right now, but considering the way that Nelson is pitching right now and that they have been one of the best teams in the league versus right-handed starters, a price of +120 looks to be worth a bet.
It could be worth waiting until lineups are confirmed to lock in bets on Arizona, however, as we may see Toronto become a larger favourite if Carroll is confirmed to be out of the lineup.

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