The Blue Jays continue to seem allergic to pushing past .500, as they blew yet another chance in Monday’s series opener and followed that loss up with a painful collapse Tuesday.

While the Blue Jays’ bullpen has offered far more ugly blow-ups this season than last, Toronto has still won 72% of games in which it has scored three or more runs. That mark matches the mark of the Red Sox, who are suddenly 39-35 and just two games back of the final Wildcard spot.

It might only be June 19th, but the games are becoming pretty critical for the Jays, particularly with the Red Sox above them in the Wildcard race. Kevin Gausman will look to better his 4.08 ERA,  in a matchup against Brayan Bello, who has struggled to a 5.00 ERA across 63 IP.

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Wednesday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays:

Brayan Bello hopes to get right after an ugly stretch of play at this start. Over the last month, Bello has had an ERA of 6.89. He’s been hard-hit 45% of the time in that span and has struck out just 20% of batters while walking 10% of batters faced.

Bello has been one of few pitchers in the Red Sox organization to underachieve preseason expectations this season. His arm talent rates out quite well (104 Stuff+) but he has struggled to an ERA of 5.00 and an xERA of 4.27.

Command has been an issue, and he continues to have a hard time throwing his highly-rated slider (117 Stuff+) for strikes. Since 2022 Bello has recorded strikes on just 58% of his sliders. Since last season Bello has allowed an OPS of 1.323 when behind in the count, which is the sixth-highest mark among qualified starters in MLB.

The Red Sox’s talented young lineup has hit to a wRC+ of 114 versus right-handed pitching over the last month, though a big part of that success has been a league-leading .329 BABIP, which likely won’t be sustained much longer. They have struck out at a ninth highest rate (23.9%), and hard-hit 32.9% of balls.

One area in which the Red Sox have been far worse than the Jays is their fielding, as they own a 12th-ranked DRS (defensive runs saved) rating, and a 24th-ranked OAA (outs above average).

Kevin Gausman has taken a step back this season and continues to have a far tougher time putting batters away with two strikes. His 97 Stuff+ rating has been down significantly since last season, but it still yields excellent command based on his 105 Location+ rating.

Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of .370 in two-strike counts this season, which is the fifth-highest mark among qualified starters.

An xFIP of 3.37 suggests Gausman has run with some tough luck this season though, and has seen his strikeout rate climb back to 25% over the last 145 PAs.

The Blue Jays own a wRC+ of 109 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with a league-leading 0.56 K/BB ratio. They have hard-hit 32% of balls in that span.

Bo Bichette will remain will remain sidelined from this contest. His loss is far less relevant than in years previous, but there is still some replacement value drop-off with his .695 OPS versus RHP missing from the lineup for this matchup.

The Blue Jays are well situated to get right with a win in this spot. Bello has displayed highly inconsistent command recently and has been getting crushed over the last month of action. He provides a solid target for a Jays offense that has been productive versus right-handed pitching for a lengthy period of time, and whose best asset at the plate is discipline.

Gausman still offers a clear pitching edge to the Blue Jays compared to Bello and is also backed by the league’s best defence.

Betting the Blue Jays to win the game at -135 looks reasonable, but I see the most value in backing the Jays to win the first seven innings at -120. I’d rather take a chance with -0.5 isolating the Gausman vs Bello innings than take the chances with a high-leverage spot working out for the Jays right now.