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Blue Jays: What a succesful 2026 season looks like for Kazuma Okamoto
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Photo credit: © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Ben Wrixon
Feb 28, 2026, 08:01 EST
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Japanese star Kazuma Okamoto was the surprise signing of the Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason, and he has been under the microscope since Spring Training began. 
Many questions swirl around the now $60-million third baseman. Can he stick at that position full-time? Will his offensive game translate to MLB after nearly a decade of dominance overseas? Will he be enough to replace Bo Bichette’s lost production? 
The early returns have been encouraging. Okamoto has looked comfortable in the field thus far, and he’s already racked up several highlights in the batter’s box. So, with that in mind, what would a good season from him actually look like in 2026? 
It’s important to remember he’s being paid $15 million annually over the next four seasons. That’s a lot of money, but it’s hardly superstar money. When the Los Angeles Dodgers made Yoshinobu Yamamoto one of baseball’s highest-paid pitchers straight out of Japan, they were setting the expectation that he would immediately be a star. Okamoto shouldn’t be expected to be Shohei Ohtani when he’s getting paid more like Eugenio Suarez. 
Steamer projects him to hit 22 home runs with a 111 wRC+, while ZiPS is more optimistic in its projection of an .800 OPS and 121 wRC+. A wRC+ in the 110 range feels like an appropriate baseline for Okamoto; anything less would be a disappointment considering the Blue Jays signed him for his bat first and foremost. Anything above that would be great. 
As far as counting stats go, 20 home runs over a full season also seems like a reasonable expectation. Almost every projection system available has him reaching this mark. That with 70-80 RBIs should be attainable given the opportunities he will receive.
The expectations should be a little different on defence. Okamoto played third base at times in Japan, but was primarily a first baseman over the last few seasons. Anybody expecting him to pick it like Matt Chapman at the hot corner this year will be disappointed.
Okamoto just needs to make the plays he’s supposed to make. He probably won’t be a metrics darling, but steady is all he needs to be with Andrés Giménez to his left at shortstop. He doesn’t need to win games with his glove—he just can’t lose them. 
So, with all that being said, a good first season from Okamoto could look like a 115 wRC+, 20 home runs, and 75 RBIs with competent defence at third base. He doesn’t need to win a Silver Slugger or Gold Glove. He just has to hit better than average and make the routine plays in the field. The great news for the Blue Jays is that he’s already giving them plenty of reasons to believe he can. 

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