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Breaking down what a successful season would look like for Shane Bieber
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Photo credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
Ben Wrixon
May 16, 2026, 08:00 EDTUpdated: May 16, 2026, 06:56 EDT
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There was plenty of optimism surrounding the Blue Jays when Shane Bieber exercised his $16 million player option to forgo the free-agent market and remain with the organization in 2026. Bieber was, seemingly, taking a pay cut to run it back with a squad that was a few outs away from the World Series rings. 
While Bieber’s enjoyment of his time in Toronto likely was a factor, his decision made more sense when the Blue Jays revealed he would start the season on the injured list. It makes perfect sense now that we’re halfway through May and he’s sidelined.
It certainly hasn’t been the reunion Bieber or the Blue Jays hoped for—it’s fair to wonder what a successful season might look like at this point. 
Step one for Bieber is to get back into the starting rotation. He threw to live hitters for the first time earlier this week; he’s a long way from even beginning a rehab assignment. A late June or early July return is probably the best-case scenario at this point. The end of May seems to be a stretch. 
Still, getting 15 starts from Bieber this season would constitute a success from a volume standpoint after he made just seven last season. That would probably equate to 80-90 innings, which would be more than double the 40 1/3 he threw in 2025 before the playoffs. 
But what about the results? Bieber was solid, albeit unspectacular, pitching for the Blue Jays down the stretch. He recorded a 3.57 ERA (120 ERA+) with a less impressive 4.47 FIP. What he did best was limit baserunners, showcasing good command after such an extended layoff. 
Where the Blue Jays will be hoping for improvement is in the strikeout department. Bieber, who owns a career 10.1 K/9, struck out less than a batter per inning in 2025. While he’s unlikely to recapture the form that allowed him to punch out 122 batters in 77 ⅓ innings in 2020, some positive regression could lead to more ace-like results. 
Bieber will also need to do a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark; the 1.8 HR/9 he allowed in last season’s small sample was the highest of his career. This issue persisted into the playoffs, where he gave up three long balls in his five appearances. 
So, with all that said, if Bieber makes 15 starts with a 3.50 ERA, strikes out a batter per inning, and keeps the home runs in check, that should be considered a success. Nobody should be expecting him to be the Blue Jays’ best starting pitcher—he just needs to be a quality third option behind Dylan Cease and Kevin Gausman. 
There is plenty of time left for Bieber to make an impact this season, and the Blue Jays will be a better team whenever he finally does return to the mound. 

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