The outlook for the Blue Jays might be as bleak as it has been at any point this season right now, as they head to Cleveland for a three-game set in the midst of a three-game losing streak, and 5.5 games back of the final American League wild-card berth.

Toronto will hope to once again take advantage of Carlos Carrasco, who has pitched to an ERA of 5.80 across 59 innings of work this season.

Yariel Rodriguez will make his return to action, having last pitched in MLB on April 29th. Rodriguez had shown some positive signs prior to his injury, and owns a 4.11 ERA across 15 1/3 IP this season.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Guardians:

The Jays are searching for answers ahead of the trade deadline, and they need to go on a considerable run for Ross Atkins to even consider adding.

Treading water just below .500 isn’t going to cut it, and inconsistent play from the offence continues to be the main source of frustration for fans and the team alike.

The Blue Jays continue to own significantly different results in splits against righties versus lefties. They have hit to a wRC+ of 108 versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .724, and a slug-rate of .404. Bo Bichette should remain the only regular missing from the lineup in this matchup.

Yariel Rodriguez had a strong start to the season, and his return to the mound is exciting for a team in need of some positivity. Rodriguez has pitched to an xFIP of 4.30 this season, and holds a solid Stuff+ rating of 99, and a Location+ rating of 99.

The Blue Jays bullpen should be in great shape after an off-day, which will be important with Rodriguez not likely to pitch deep into this game.

The Blue Jays tagged Carrasco for four earned runs on June 15, which has been par for the course for Carrasco this season. He has pitched to an xERA of 5.13, struck out only 16.9% of batters faced, and been hard-hit 38% of the time. Over the last month of action Carrasco has allowed an xBA of .289.

Carrasco holds a Stuff+ rating of only 92, with horrible ratings on his fastballs. Batters have slugged .556 versus his four-seamer this season, and .667 versus his sinker. High-quality fastballs are a great way to shut the Jays down, but Carrasco’s are far from quality, and even the Jays should be able to hit them well once again.

Cleveland’s offence has remained in strong form over the last month, as it holds a wRC+ of 120, and an OPS of .760. Toronto lucked out as Jose Ramirez missed two games from the series earlier in the month, but he is back from the paternity list, meaning every regular should be available in this matchup.

Carrasco looks to be one of the worst full-time starters in baseball, and was hammered by the Blue Jays on June 15 at Rogers Centre. It seems unlikely that this game will feature a notably different storyline, as he sets up as a perfect target for the Jays offence. Look for Toronto to be productive in the early innings of this matchup, and it may need to be given the dominance of the Guardians bullpen.

Even if Rodriguez can only handle one time through the lineup, the Blue Jays hold a significant pitching edge in this matchup.

While the Jays’ price to win the first five innings is far shorter than their number to win the game, there still looks to be far more value backing the Jays to win the first five at -105 than to win the game.