The Yankees snapped their season-high four-game losing skid in commanding fashion, as they put up 15 runs in the final four innings of Friday’s game en route to a 16-5 victory.

Toronto will be keen to see Chris Bassitt’s recent dominance continue Saturday, as its bullpen has been in disastrous form of late. Bassitt has pitched to a 2.32 ERA across 31 innings in the month of June, lowering his season-long ERA to 3.45.

Bassitt will take on Nestor Cortes who owns a comparable 3.40 ERA across 100 and 2/3 IP this season, but has struggled to a 5.57 ERA away from Yankee Stadium.

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Saturday’s matchup between the Yankees and Blue Jays:

The Yankees’ offence got right in a big way Friday and will look to carry that performance into Saturday’s matchup. Over the last two weeks, New York has been in its worst form of the season, but it still seems more likely that this recent run is a blip on the radar, than something that proves the Yankees were frauds early on.

The Yankees have hit to a league-leading 123 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season. They own a 0.47 BB/K ratio, and have displayed far better plate discipline in a number of key areas compared to last season. Their 33.2% hard-hit rate against righties ranks fourth in baseball.

New York’s upside against right-handed pitching certainly takes a hit with Giancarlo Stanton’s .840 OPS versus RHP out of the lineup, but it should still trend toward top-third results versus righties at worst.

Nestor Cortes is still offering wildly differing splits on the road versus at Yankee Stadium, and it is an interesting story to keep an eye on as the sample grows larger. It seems hard to believe that pitching away from home truly shakes Cortes up this considerably, but his 4.46 xFIP on the road compared to a 3.53 xFIP at home tells us it has been more than bad luck causing the differing results.

Cortes has pitched to an xERA of 3.04 this season and an xFIP of 3.92. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 98 and a Location+ rating of 103.

For a team with the Blue Jays salary to post 37-44 record, it’s likely going to take underachievement in several different areas of the roster. That point has been quite clear lately, as on some of the days the offence has actually put up a solid total, and the bullpen has had ugly collapses.

Over the last two weeks, the Jays’ bullpen has pitched to a 4.63 ERA, and over the last month, they own a 4.78 ERA.

Another deep outing from Bassitt would help John Schneider tremendously in this spot, as piecing together more than three innings right now feels pretty daunting.

Bassitt has pitched to a 2.32 ERA in June, but he has still allowed a WHIP of 1.32. His most notable improvement in June has been stranding 84.1% of baserunners, which is not likely to continue over a lengthy sample. Bassitt owns a 4.22 xERA this season, and an xFIP of 4.15.

The Blue Jays’ offence has been considerably less effective in splits versus left-handed pitching once again this season. Over the last 30 days, they have posted a wRC+ of just 71 versus lefties, with an OPS of .585.

Last night’s comeback win felt like a potential turning point for the Yankees as they look to get things moving in the right direction again. Whether you feel that narrative actually means anything or not, it is clear that this year’s Yankee side displays a better process at the plate and offers a deeper lineup than last season.

Bassitt enters this matchup in tremendous form, but most indicators suggest he is still not offering a starting pitching edge in a matchup versus Cortes. Chances are Cortes will start to pitch to more balanced splits on the road moving forward, and he was excellent last time out in Kansas City.

The Blue Jays have been significantly less effective against left-handed pitching this season, while the Yankees have been the best team in baseball against right-handed pitchers. Even if the Blue Jays do manage to put together a big offensive day and earn another lead, it’s hard to trust any of their high-leverage arms right now.

It’s difficult to see why the Yankees don’t deserve to be a larger favourite in this matchup. There is value in backing New York to win at anything better than -135.