Friday’s matchup provided a great moment for starter Chris Bassitt, and yet another ugly moment for the 2024 Blue Jays, as they wasted a dominant outing. Bassitt worked eight innings while allowing only one earned run, and upon completing his final inning, scooped a handful of dirt from the Coliseum mound as a keepsake.

Toronto closed at -165 in last night’s matchup, and is priced comparably today with Kevin Gausman set to take on Luis Medina.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Saturday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Athletics:

After Bassitt’s strong start yesterday, Blue Jays’ starters own a team ERA of 3.85 entering this matchup. It’s not as dominant a number as we saw last season, but it would still certainly be sufficient if the offence was clicking, and if the bullpen was as effective as it was in 2023.

One starter who has been considerably less effective has been Kevin Gausman, who owns a 4.60 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 60 and 2/3 IP. He owns an xERA of 5.26, and an xFIP of 3.47.

It’s looked notable watching Gausman’s starts that he is having a much tougher time putting batters away, and that speculation is supported by the numbers. He’s lost some velocity off of his fastball this season, and some vertical movement on his splitter. His whiff-rate is down from 28.9% last year, to 25% this season.

Batters own a .356 woBA in 0-2 counts, a .262 woBA in 1-2 counts, and a .230 woBA in 2-2. All three of those numbers are far worse than in recent years, and correlate with his lesser quality of stuff. Gausman’s Stuff+ rating is also down from 105 in 2023 to 98 in 2024.

Over Gausman’s last five starts he has been hard-hit 49% of the time, allowing a .284 batting average, and a .300 xBA.

Toronto’s bullpen continues to be a concern. It has allowed an ERA of 4.64 over the last 30 days, with an xFIP of 4.19.

The Blue Jays offence enters this matchup in a completely average stretch of play, as it owns a wRC+ of 100 over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .690. They own a league-leading 0.50 BB/K ratio in that span, and own a 14th-ranked 41.5% hard-hit rate. For most teams, that combination should mean better results.

The Blue Jays also own drastically differing splits righty versus lefty at the plate this season. They own a wRC+ of 100 versus right-handed pitching this season.

Luis Medina will make his second start of the season Saturday, after an effective outing versus the Braves. His arm talent is highly touted, though he was not able to turn his lively stuff into effective results in 2023. He pitched to an ERA of 5.42 last season, with an xERA of 4.80.

Medina suffered a knee injury stepping off the mound in Spring Training, and therefore missed significant time. His velocity was not a concern in his initial start, and he owned a Stuff+ rating of 112, and a Location+ rating of 97 in that matchup. Those are all positive indicators for a starter who does still hold a bright future to be sure.

Athletics relievers own an eighth-worst xFIP of 4.21 over the last 30 days, and do appear due for worse results as a whole. Mason Miller likely won’t be available to work today, either, which is another advantage for the Jays.

The Athletics have hit to a wRC+ of 95 versus right-handed pitching this season, with an OPS of .662.

Gausman has not been good this season, and even his slight turnaround in May does not appear likely to be replicated. His contact rates have been just as bad recently as they have been over the entirety of the season, and it looks like he is currently far away from being the pitcher he once was.

The Blue Jays bullpen has quietly become a disaster over the last 30 days, which will be a concern if Gausman does not have a solid outing.

By no means has Blue Jays offence been good lately, but they have still been closer to the middle of the pack in terms of actual production for a fairly lengthy sample. And versus righties, most indicators suggest they are still slightly better than that. Without giving too much credit to the Jays offensively, it’s still fair to say they can do some damage against an unproven starter in Medina.

The Athletics look to be the side holding slightly more value at +160, but my favourite bet lies with backing the over 8 at -105, and I would bet it down to -110.