MLB betting preview (March 27): Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions

Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Adley Rutschman (35) connects on a game winning, two-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ninth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Photo credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Imag

Mar 26, 2025, 14:00 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will open their 2025 MLB season at Rogers Centre on Thursday afternoon when they host the Baltimore Orioles.

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting much from the Blue Jays this season, with the linesmakers at bet365 giving Toronto long +4500 odds to win the World Series with a season win total of over/under 78.5 this season. The Blue Jays also open the campaign with +240 odds (29.4% implied odds) to make the playoffs, and they have the longest odds (+1100) to win the American League East.

Coming off a 91-win season, oddsmakers are expecting the Orioles to take a little step back this year after losing ace Corbin Burnes via free agency and having a quiet offseason. Their season win total is set at 87.5, and they have -170 odds (62.9% implied odds) to make the playoffs. The O’s have the sixth-shortest odds to win the World Series this year at +1100.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for the season opener for both teams via bet365.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds

Orioles moneyline odds	-115
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-105
Runline odds	Orioles -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (-105), Under 8.5 (-115)
Date/Time	March 27, 3:07 p.m. ET

About the Orioles

We’re going to find out what the Orioles are made of this year after several years of hearing about the amazing potential of their young stars. They’ve flamed out early in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, and after a relatively quiet offseason, the O’s are relying on their young talent to take a huge step forward this year to keep them in the playoff conversation.

The good news is that stud closer Felix Bautista is ready to roll after missing all of the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. If he returns anywhere close to his dominant 2023 form, when he converted 33 of his 39 save opportunities with a microscopic 1.48 ERA, the Orioles should have one of the better bullpens in the league with Yennier Cano and Seranthony Dominguez also serving in high-leverage roles.

Tyler O’Neill also has the potential to be one of the most under-the-radar pickups of the offseason. The Canadian is fresh off a 31-homer campaign with the Boston Red Sox last season, and if he can stay healthy, he could replicate the offensive output lost with the departure of Anthony Santander.

About the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays made a few offseason moves in an attempt to be competitive in 2025, but they failed to address the expiring contracts of stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of the season. The additions of Santander, Andrés Giménez, and Jeff Hoffman will certainly boost morale, but the front office’s failure to extend Bichette and/or Guerrero Jr. will certainly be a distraction throughout the season if it’s not addressed in some fashion at some point.

There’s a path to the Blue Jays playing .500 baseball and potentially making a playoff push in 2025, but there’s also the possibility that the roster is completely blown up in favour of a rebuild by the trade deadline. This makes Toronto one of the more intriguing teams in baseball this season.

Probable starting pitchers

Baltimore: RHP Zach Eflin (2024 stats: 10-9, 3.59 ERA, 7.29 K/9)

Eflin is set to face the Blue Jays on Opening Day for the second consecutive year. It didn’t go well last year as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, though, as the righty coughed up six runs over 5 2/3 innings of work in a loss at Tropicana Field. He didn’t fare well in his other three starts last year against Toronto either, giving up 15 runs across 23 1/3 innings to the Blue Jays, who hit a lofty .357 collectively off him.

Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (2024 stats: 16-11, 3.60 ERA, 7.16 K/9)

Berrios is coming off a fine 2024 campaign, as he had tremendous success inducing weak contact. He made two starts against the Orioles, holding them to four runs across 13 innings, but he did surrender three homers in the process. It should be noted that his 7.16 K/9 mark last year was the lowest of his nine-year career.

Notable injuries

The Orioles will be missing the big bat of Gunnar Henderson as he begins the year on the injured list with a right intercostal strain. The 2024 All-Star shortstop crushed 37 homers and drove in 92 runs last year for the Orioles, so it’s a big blow to the lineup in this spot.

As for the Blue Jays, outfielder Daulton Varsho is still recovering from right rotator cuff surgery and won’t be available. Toronto will also be missing three relievers—Erik Swanson (forearm), Ryan Burr (shoulder), and Zach Pop (elbow)—due to minor injuries.

Weather

It’s still cold in Toronto, so the retractable roof at Rogers Centre will be closed for this matchup.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The Blue Jays have won their past five games on Opening Day and are 26-22 all-time.
Baltimore was 7-6 vs. Toronto last season, but just 3-4 at Rogers Centre
Toronto closed out spring training with four straight wins and finished with the best record (18-10) in the Grapefruit League.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

We don’t have any fresh data sets to analyze trends this early in the season, but we can look at some historical batter vs. pitcher data to make informed bets. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman terrorized the Blue Jays last season, slashing .302/.375/.651 with five homers and nine RBIs in 11 games. His numbers are even better against Berrios, who has allowed the youngster to post an insane 1.716 OPS against him in 22 career at-bats. Rutschman also has three career homers against the righty.
Guerrero Jr. has had some success against Eflin, posting a 1.105 OPS and two homers in 19 career at-bats against the Baltimore right-hander.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays best bets

Rutschman over 1.5 total bases: +125 (best odds @ Pinnacle). You rarely see such lopsided batter vs. pitcher splits, so it’s a no-brainer to back Rutschman in this spot against Berrios. Additionally, Rutschman has had a fine spring, posting a .357 average and 1.033 OPS. It might also be worth a half unit on Rutschman to go deep at more enticing +594 odds at Pinnacle.
Santander over 0.5 RBIs: +150 (best odds @ FanDuel). This is a classic revenge spot for Santander against his former club, so he’ll be especially motivated to make an impact with his bat in this game. He has a career .833 OPS in 12 at-bats against Eflin with a solo home run. We’ll bet on him to drive in at least one run in his Toronto debut.