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MLB betting preview (May 22): Padres vs. Blue Jays predictions
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Bowden Francis (44) throws against the Detroit Tigers in the second inning at Rogers Centre.
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Greg Warren
May 22, 2025, 09:30 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will try for a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres when they wrap up their series at Rogers Centre on Thursday afternoon.
Toronto cruised to a lopsided 14-0 victory on Wednesday to give the Blue Jays their third win in the last four games and move them back to the .500 mark.
San Diego, meanwhile, is mired in a five-game losing streak in which it has scored just three total runs, with Toronto shutting it out in back-to-back games in this series.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Thursday’s series finale between the Padres and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Padres vs. Blue Jays odds

Padres moneyline odds
-120
Blue Jays moneyline odds
+100
Runline odds
Padres -1.5 (+135), Blue Jays +1.5 (-160)
Game total
Over 9 runs (-105), Under 9 (-115)
Date/Time
May 22, 1:07 p.m. ET

About the Padres (27-20 SU, 26-21 ATS, 20-26-1 o/u)

To say that the Padres are in a slump at the plate would be a massive understatement. They’ve scored just three runs over their last five games and are 0-for-33 with runners in scoring position during that span.
They recorded just five hits Wednesday, and two of those hits came off the bat of Luis Arraez, who extended his hitting streak to eight games with his multi-hit effort. The three-time batting champion has posted a microscopic 3.4% whiff rate this season, which is on pace to break former Blue Jay Marco Scutaro’s record of 5.6% set back in 2012.

About the Blue Jays (24-24 SU, 30-18 ATS, 23-24-1 o/u)

Everything went right for the Blue Jays on Wednesday, but the game was actually much closer than the final score reflects. They were only leading by a score of 2-0 until the bottom of the seventh inning, when they exploded for five runs before hanging seven more on the Padres in the bottom of the eighth. Their 14 runs were a season high, an encouraging sign for a team that has largely struggled at the plate this season.
Daulton Varsho launched a grand slam in the rout to increase his home run total to an impressive seven through just 16 games.

Probable starting pitchers

San Diego: RHP Stephen Kolek (2-1, 2.33 ERA, 6.98 K/9)
Kolek was shelled for five runs on eight hits over five innings in his third start of the season last week against the Seattle Mariners, but his two prior starts were fantastic, holding the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates scoreless over 14 1/3 innings. Kolek uses a six-pitch mix, but hitters will primarily see four-seamers and sinkers from the right-hander. His sinker has been hit particularly hard through three starts, with the opposition hitting .421 off of the pitch.
Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (2-6, 5.63 ERA, 6.99 K/9)
Francis is 0-4 in his last five starts with a lofty 8.10 ERA. Opponents are hitting .353 off him during that span, and he’s been bombed for nine home runs in that stretch. The big righty ranks in the fifth percentile in hard-hit rate (51%), and opponents are barreling him up at a 12.1% rate, which ranks in the 14th percentile. Francis has done a good job at limiting free passes with a 6.5% walk rate, but that’s about all he has going for him right now.

Notable injuries

The Padres are a little thin in the starting pitching department, with both Joe Musgrove (elbow) and Yu Darvish (elbow) on the injured list.
Pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays. Infielder Andres Gimenez (quad) is also on the IL. Anthony Santander (hip) is a game-time decision.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for rainy conditions and cold temperatures, so the retractable dome at Rogers Centre will be closed.

Padres vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The under is 5-1 in San Diego’s last six games.
  • The Blue Jays are 30-18 on the runline this season (best in baseball).
  • The Padres have hit the team total under in 13 of their last 19 road games.

Padres vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

  • Kolek has exceeded his line of 3.5 strikeouts in all three of his starts this season and is +110 to beat that mark again Thursday.
  • Francis has allowed six or more hits in five straight starts and is -150 to exceed that mark again.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has exceeded his line of 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 17 of his last 21 games and at a 69% rate this season. He’s -170 to keep that trend hot.
  • Bo Bichette has struck out at least once in seven straight games and is -137 to do so again.

Padres vs. Blue Jays best bet

  • Game total under 9.5 runs: -130 for one unit (best odds at Betway). This line seems high given the recent offensive struggles of the Padres, especially for a getaway afternoon game after a night game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a few stars get a day off in this spot with the short turnaround between games, which only further enhances this play, but wait until you see lineups for both teams before locking in. The Blue Jays had scored four runs or less in six straight games prior to Wednesday’s 14-run outburst, so we should see a more typical offensive output of around four or five runs from them in this series finale.

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