The Mariners and Blue Jays will begin a best-of-seven series Sunday, with a trip to the World Series on the line.

This series will be a rematch of the 2022 Wild Card round, which Seattle won two to nothing, thanks to a stunning comeback in Game 2 in what was one of the worst moments in franchise history for the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays are heavy favorites in Game One, as the Mariners earned their spot in this series thanks to a 15-inning win over the Tigers Friday evening, before flying across the continent. Bryce Miller (5.53 ERA, 86 and 1/3 IP), will face off against Kevin Gausman (3.47 ERA, 189 and 1/3 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Mariners and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Entering the postseason, FanGraphs projected the Mariners as the most likely team to win the AL Pennant, largely based on the guarantee that they would play a fairly soft opponent in the ALDS following a bye through the Wild Card round.  It was a little more difficult than expected, but the Mariners were able to grind their way past the Detroit Tigers, who by most indicators would have provided a softer matchup.

The Mariners have a deeper starting rotation than the Blue Jays and arguably a better bullpen, and those will be their most significant advantages in this series. Seattle’s edge in terms of its starting rotation will be even more significant if Bryan Woo is able to return from a pectoral injury, as Woo held an ERA of 2.94 in 186 and 2/3 innings of work this season.

Thanks to the state of the Mariners’ pitching staff following Friday’s 15-inning marathon, Miller being arguably the worst Mariners starter who will work in this ALCS, and the fact that Gausman will start for Toronto, Sunday’s matchup should offer the Blue Jays their easiest win of the series on paper.

Miller started Game 4 of the divisional round versus the Tigers and will be working on short rest as a result. He had a fairly shaky outing versus Detroit, allowing four hits and two earned runs across four and a third innings of work. He allowed an xBA of .327, generated only two strikeouts, and held an xERA of 6.08.

Miller’s regular season results also indicate that he will be the softest Mariners pitcher to start in this series. He held an xERA of 5.29 this season, an xFIP of 4.60, and a strikeout minus walk rate of 10.2%.

Mariners relievers finished the season with the ninth-best ERA in baseball and ranked 12th in strikeout minus walk rate. The bullpen arms that made the ALDS roster combined for an average Stuff+ of 107, the highest combined mark of any bullpen this postseason.

Similar to a matchup versus the Yankees, the Blue Jays’ elite ability to put balls in play could prove favorable in this matchup. Based on Fielding Run Value, the Mariners were the fifth worst defensive team in baseball this season.

The Mariners’ lineup was not overly productive in the divisional round versus the Tigers, which was a key reason the series was stretched to the 15th inning of Game 5. Seattle finished the series with a wRC+ of 83 and struck out 27.8% of the time and hit just .207 at the plate.

While Cal Raleigh terrorized the majority of MLB pitchers this season, he’s always terrorized Blue Jays pitching, even prior to his full-fledged breakout this season. Unlike Aaron Judge, Raleigh does not hit for average, and the main key for Toronto’s staff will be to avoid allowing long balls to the MVP candidate.

On paper, Game 1 is likely to feature the greatest starting pitching mismatch of the series, as Gausman has been drastically more effective than Miller this season. Gausman finished the campaign with a 3.69 xERA and 3.77 xFIP, as well as a strikeout minus walk-rate of 17.9%.

Gausman elevated his level of play in the final third of the season in particular, pitching to an ERA of 2.98 and an xFIP of 3.25 in his final 57 and 1/3 innings of work. Gausman pitched well in his lone appearance in the ALDS versus the Yankees, allowing just one earned run across five and 2/3 innings of work.

The Blue Jays have officially announced their roster for this series, and unfortunately star shortstop Bo Bichette has been left off the roster once again. Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt have both been added to the roster, overtaking the places held by Justin Bruihl and Tommy Nance last round.

Toronto displayed an excellent offensive process in the ALDS versus the Yankees, striking out at the lowest rate of any team this postseason and generating plenty of solid contact. While they did slug .601 and hit for plenty of power, the team did a much better job of taking what was there relative to the Yankees and made life very difficult on high-quality starters such as Max Fried and Carlos Rodon.

On paper, Miller provides a fairly strong matchup for the Blue Jays lineup. The righty is in the second-worst percentile in terms of hard-hit rate this season and struck out just 18.9% of batters faced. Miller has relied heavily upon his four-seamer and splitter this season, and the Blue Jays rank sixth and second, respectively, in terms of weighted run value versus those two pitches.

This appears to be a good spot to keep it square and back the Blue Jays to win this favorable matchup by two runs or more. Miller has been a well below average starter this season, and a fastball-heavy right-handed starter is a particularly appealing matchup for the Blue Jays lineup, who should be able to get plenty of hard contact in play to start this matchup.

The Mariners’ pitching staff is fairly withered entering this matchup, which should further increase the Blue Jays’ pitching edge, in a game that will be started by red-hot Gausman.

Seattle’s offensive process versus the Tigers was also quite shaky, while Toronto was able to replicate its regular season success last round versus a solid Yankees staff.

At +115 I see value in betting the Blue Jays to win by two runs or more, and believe this is also a decent spot to sprinkle on the Blue Jays winning by a significant margin given the possibility that Seattle employs its worst pitching options if trailing in this matchup to have a better chance in Game 2.