With a convincing 6-2 win Sunday evening over the Seattle Mariners, the Blue Jays have forced a series-deciding Game 7 in the ALCS. Monday’s matchup will either go down as one of the greatest wins in franchise history, or another heartbreaking elimination game in a city that has seen many in recent years.

George Kirby will square off against Shane Bieber in a rematch of Game 3, a matchup the Blue Jays won 13-4. Oddsmakers currently offer the Blue Jays a 57.4% chance of taking this matchup and earning a date in the World Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s matchup between the Mariners and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

The Mariners bullpen and power-hitting are their two main edges over the Blue Jays and powered them to a win in Game 5. Seattle is a much lesser team defensively than Toronto and also offers drastically more swing-and-miss at the plate, and those two weaknesses ultimately powered its critical loss in Game 6.

Eugenio Suarez held a -6 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) at third base this season, and his error in the top of the second inning was a turning point in Sunday’s matchup, which ultimately led to two runs.

It hasn’t yet been too much of a talking point in this series, but the Blue Jays ranked fourth in DRS this season and ninth in OAA (outs above average). The Mariners ranked 18th and 28th in those two categories this season.

Based on Kirby’s performance in Game 3, there could be some added pressure on the Mariners to perform defensively in this matchup. The Blue Jays mashed Kirby in the previous matchup, generating eight hits, eight runs, and three home runs in just four innings of work, which left some observers questioning if the Blue Jays had potentially picked up something on Kirby.

We were bullish on the Blue Jays‘ chances of hitting Kirby effectively in Game 3, as his pitch metrics are down relative to what we have typically seen, and it seemed unlikely that he would generate much swing-and-miss based on his underlying profile.

Oddsmakers are expecting Kirby will have a short leash in this matchup, as he currently has a betting total of just 11.5 outs. In a do-or-die spot, Mariners manager Dan Wilson will certainly be keen to make sure his elite bullpen arms are used into this matchup (likely aside from Matt Brash), and Bryan Woo may also be available after throwing what would essentially equate to a side session in Game 5 on Friday.

The Mariners lineup has hit to a wRC+ of 99 this postseason and has struck out 27.9% of the time. They have leaned heavily on power-hitting in order to find success, which is a slight concern for the Blue Jays with Bieber on the mound, as he allowed 1.79 HR/9 this season, albeit in a small sample.

Seattle’s lesser overall approach has led to many fewer opportunities with RISP in the series. It has had just 35 at-bats with RISP compared to Toronto’s total of 62, and the Jays have hit to a higher average (.242) in those at-bats.

Many observers questioned if the New York Yankees’ offensive style could actually lead to winning results following the ALDS, but we haven’t really heard the same chatter in this series, despite the Mariners arguably leaning even more so into a power-reliant approach at the plate than the Yankees did.

There is no disputing that the Mariners’ mistakes in the field helped power the Blue Jays’ six-run output, but it was another night in which the team exhibited an excellent process offensively. The Blue Jays struck out just six times in 36 at-bats, racked up 11 hits, and held an xBA of .293 compared to Seattle’s mark of .175.

What the Blue Jays have done offensively this postseason has been extremely impressive. They rank first in wRC+ by a wide margin, hold an xwOBA of .363, and have struck out just 14.6% of the time, all while playing without a key bat in Bo Bichette.

At this point it’s hard to dispute that the Blue Jays hold a superior lineup to the Mariners, but they’ve got only one matchup left to prove it, and will be fighting an uphill battle once the starters leave this matchup.

Bieber was highly effective in Game 3, bouncing back after an ugly performance in the ALDS versus the Yankees. Bieber struck out 35% of batters faced and allowed an xBA of .178 in Game 3, and holds an xFIP of 3.35 this season and a Pitching+ rating of 101.

The Blue Jays likely don’t mind their chances in the Kirby vs Bieber innings, but things could feel pretty nervy if this game remains close late, similar to what we saw in Game 5 in Seattle.

Toronto’s bullpen is in pretty decent shape entering this matchup, but it is concerning that Louis Varland has now worked five times in this series and that Jeff Hoffman threw 35 pitches in Sunday’s matchup. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Max Scherzer get some innings in this matchup after his strong showing in Game 4, particularly if Bieber does not pitch overly deep into the ball game.

The betting sides in this matchup look fair to me, and I’m not quite confident enough in the Blue Jays to back them at -135 despite my strong belief in their offensive process. Unless the Blue Jays stake quite a significant early lead, this game will probably feel quite nerve-wracking in the late innings due to Seattle’s bullpen edge, and I don’t want to lay -135 with that in mind.

While Kirby’s outs prop is lower in this matchup than it was when we faded him in Game 3, I still see value in backing him to record under 11.5 outs. The Blue Jays present a very tough challenge for a righty that relies heavily upon four-seamers and sliders, and Wilson should be eager to make sure all of his high-quality relief options, and potentially even Bryan Woo, get into this game.

Unless Kirby is completely cruising, he will likely receive a pretty short hook in this matchup, and I’m happy to lay -120 to back him recording under 11.5 outs.

Hopefully I’ll be back with some World Series guides later in the week, but if not I’d just like to thank all our readers for a fun season. These articles I’ve written have turned in a solid +7.70 unit return this season (20-14-1), and I’m very hopeful that we can try to build on that mark later in the week.