The Toronto Blue Jays will look to take a 2-0 lead in the World Series after authoring one of the most impressive offensive performances in recent memory in the series opener.

Despite holding a 1-0 lead, the Blue Jays are still considered slight underdogs to win the best-of-seven series. A key reason why is that the Dodgers will presumably be significantly larger favourites in Games 3 and 4 than in Games 1 and 2.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will sqaure off against Kevin Gausman on Saturday, which, based on betting odds, is the most favourable matchup in the series for the Blue Jays.

Blake Snell, allowing eight hits and five earned runs while recording just 15 outs, has to put a little fear into the Dodgers, as the dominant lefty had pitched to an ERA of 0.86 across 21 innings this postseason. Snell was charged with all three earned runs after Emmet Sheehan failed to strand any of Snell’s base runners, exposing what could prove to be another issue for the Dodgers in this series.

As we discussed yesterday, the Dodgers’ bullpen had not often been tested this postseason, as their starters have pitched quite deep into the majority of matchups. In many of those matchups, when the starters did leave, the team already had a multi-run lead, and their relief staff had not been tasked to handle many high-stress situations.

The Dodgers’ bullpen was the team’s greatest flaw on paper entering the postseason, and though they have essentially coasted into the World Series, that perceived flaw has come to fruition. Following yesterday’s blow-up, the relief staff now holds an ERA of 6.16 across 30 2/3 innings of work. It also owns a sky-high xFIP of 5.65 in those innings, the worst mark of any playoff team by a wide margin.

The Dodgers will send another high-quality starter to the mound Saturday in Yamamoto, and Toronto will certainly try to stick with a similar approach in attempting to rack up his pitch count and get into the bullpen in short order.

Yamamoto has pitched to an ERA of 1.83 across 19 2/3 innings this postseason, with an xFIP of 3.40 and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 17.7%. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 102 dating back to the start of July and features a strong five-pitch arsenal.

The Dodgers’ high-powered lineup held an xBA of just .163 in the series opener, and though it did feel like Trey Yesavage was fighting it a bit and clearly did not have his best stuff, his underlying results were respectable.

The Dodgers will provide a tough matchup for Gausman, as they held a wRC+ of 114 versus right-handed pitching this season. They did not face Gausman during the three-game series in August between these sides.

Hanging up 11 runs in any matchup this time of year is eye-opening, but given the incredible form that Snell was in entering Game 1, the Blue Jays’ offensive performance in the series opener was especially impressive. Toronto was fairly unlucky not to get to Snell in the first inning but stuck with a strong process, running up Snell’s pitch count and forcing him to routinely work in uncomfortable spots.

The Blue Jays were eventually rewarded with an offensive explosion in the sixth inning, but certainly deserve credit for the groundwork that was laid in the previous innings versus Snell. Toronto finished with 11 hits and a .326 xBA in Game 1. Though they aren’t necessarily known for their power-hitting, four of the five highest exit velocities in the game came off Blue Jays’ bats.

The Blue Jays have hit to a wRC+ of 149 this postseason and hold an xwOBA of .365. They have struck out at an absurdly low rate of 14.4% but have still slugged .534, which is also the best mark in MLB this postseason.

The depth of Toronto’s lineup and roster was on full display, as John Schneider effectively pinch-hit Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes, and eight different batters recorded hits.

As Yamamoto is a righty, we will likely see Schneider alter his starting lineup to include Barger and Lukes in this matchup. Dating back to June 1st, the Blue Jays have hit to a wRC+ of 122 versus right-handed pitching and hold the highest BB/K ratio in baseball in that span.

Bo Bichette recorded a hit and a walk in three PAs in his return to the lineup and was able to field second base effectively, though he was only involved in two plays in the field.

Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 2.00 across 18 innings of work this postseason, but his underlying metrics are much less convincing. He holds an xFIP of 5.19 in those outings and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 4.2%. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 100 and a Pitching+ rating of 102 this season, but has been strongest where it counts in pitching to an ERA of 3.47, led by an excellent second half.

The Blue Jays’ massive lead allowed Schneider to avoid letting the Dodgers see Louis Varland and Jeff Hoffman in Game 1, which is beneficial. Just as there’s a third time through the order tax for starters, teams generally tend to fare better in the later games of playoff rounds versus relievers that have worked in numerous outings.

Toronto’s relief staff has struggled to an ERA of 5.53 and an xFIP of 4.46 in 50 2/3 innings of work this postseason. Those numbers are slightly less concerning in this matchup, given that Varland and Hoffman are both well-situated to work, but are still far from ideal.

Though Yamamoto and Gausman are both elite starters, there still seems to be value in backing a fairly high-event matchup Saturday with the total set at 7.5.

The Blue Jays have given fits to a ton of elite starters with their tremendous offensive approach this postseason, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them manage a solid performance versus Yamamoto and, at worst, chase him from the game somewhat early before getting into a soft Dodgers bullpen.

The Dodgers lineup will provide a very tough test for Gausman, who does hold concerning underlying results this postseason. And while Toronto’s top bullpen arms are well-rested entering this matchup, its bullpen is still a concern.

Between the shakiness of both bullpens and the possibility that these elite offences can get to the opposing starter, I’m happy to back this game featuring over 7.5 runs at -110.

After yesterday’s hit on the Blue Jays to score over 3.5 runs at +110, these article picks are up to a mark of +7.6 Units (21-16-1) this season, and I appreciate the growing support during this magical playoff run.