Oddsmakers suggest that the Toronto Blue Jays have just a 37% chance of winning Game 3 of the World Series in Los Angeles, which will feature future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer facing off against Tyler Glasnow.

Based on their current betting price of -200, this is likely the most heavily favoured the Dodgers will be on the moneyline in any matchup of the series.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s World Series Game 3 matchup between the Blue Jays and Dodgers courtesy of bet365.

The Blue Jays closed at +115 in Scherzer’s last start in Game 4 of the ALCS in Seattle and ultimately proved oddsmakers wrong with a critical 8-2 win to knot the series at two. Scherzer was able to grind his way through 5 2/3 innings in that matchup after oddsmakers set his betting total at just 11.5 outs, a line they have replicated again for Scherzer in this matchup (-140 over, +110 under). From the Blue Jays’ perspective, they would certainly love to get at least four innings from Scherzer, as the bullpen continues to feel highly unreliable.

Given the way that Kevin Gausman performed in Game 2 and the lack of dominant arms in Toronto’s bullpen, it’s not been much of a talking point that he was left in to handle the seventh inning even though he allowed a pair of solo home runs to Will Smith and Max Muncy.

There is a huge sample of statistics that suggest a heavy tax on starters when working the third time through the order, and in an ideal world, you’d like to feel as though a rested Blue Jays bullpen could be expected to handle the final three innings of work. By no means is my argument that Gausman needed to be removed, but more so to note that John Schneider does not have enough elite high-leverage arms to make leaving Gausman in for the seventh a debate.

At this point it feels as though the team only truly trusts Louis Varland and Jeff Hoffman to handle critical relief work. And even still, Varland has allowed a 4.63 ERA in 11 2/3 innings with a 6.14 FIP this postseason, and is far from the most convincing option.

Blue Jays relievers have pitched to an ERA of 5.43 and a 4.68 xFIP in 53 innings of work this postseason. If Scherzer can’t offer a relatively lengthy and effective start Monday, it will certainly put the team in a very concerning situation.

Chris Bassitt has looked sharp in his last two appearances, and he is certainly a solid candidate to follow Scherzer in this matchup, particularly given his capability of handling multiple innings.

Scherzer turned back the clock with a gutty performance in Seattle, a performance that was particularly impressive when you consider how the legendary 41-year-old had been trending prior to that start. Though Scherzer’s final stat line was solid, he was pitching at baseball’s most pitcher-friendly venue and held fairly concerning underlying metrics, including a 5.39 xFIP.

A start at Dodger Stadium versus the Dodgers is certainly a much more difficult challenge than he faced last round in Seattle, and it is still concerning that Scherzer pitched to a 5.19 ERA and 4.55 xFIP during the regular season. By no means would it be surprising if Scherzer is able to grind out another solid outing, but it’s certainly fair to question if he can replicate the magic of his previous outing.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was razor-sharp in Game 2, and to make matters worse for Toronto’s offence, umpire Adrian Johnson gave some critical strikes below the zone (though the iffy calls went both ways).

While the Blue Jays couldn’t get it going in Game 2 versus Yamamoto, they’ve generally hit elite pitching extremely well this postseason, and relative to how strong of a pitcher Glasnow is, he does profile as a solid matchup for Toronto’s lineup.

Toronto ranked seventh or better in weighted pitch value versus each of Glasnow’s four pitch offerings, and Glasnow is fairly reliant on generating swing-and-miss inside the strike zone to find success, which could prove favourable to Toronto given its excellent contact rates.

At the time of writing, the Blue Jays have not announced their starting lineup, but it seems likely that Schneider will insert Bo Bichette back into the starting mix, likely at second base once again. Bichette’s addition obviously boosts the team’s offensive upside, but is a concern from a fielding perspective.

Yamamoto’s brilliance came at a critical time for the Dodgers, as his second consecutive complete game prevented the Blue Jays from being able to expose a very shaky bullpen.

As noted in each of the previous two game guides, the Dodgers bullpen has been somewhat of a train wreck this postseason, but it’s a flaw that has mainly been masked because their starters have handled so many innings, and the team has mainly held multi-run leads when they exit the game.

The Dodgers bullpen has pitched to a 6.16 ERA and 5.65 xFIP in 30 2/3 innings of work this postseason. The upside of the Dodgers bullpen has been further reduced in this series, after the team was forced to leave Alex Vesia off the World Series roster for personal reasons.

Glasnow pitched to a 3.25 xERA and 3.72 xFIP during the regular season. His Stuff+ rating was down significantly compared to his career average, as was his strikeout-minus-walk rate. He has had an excellent start to the postseason, but that was the case for several Mariners pitchers prior to their first matchup with the Blue Jays’ elite offence last round.

The Dodgers were the third most productive team in the league versus right-handed pitching across the entirety of the season and rank third in hard-hit rate versus righties dating back to August 1st. They were also drastically more productive offensively at home this season with a first-ranked wRC+ of 125, compared to a mark of 102 on the road.

It’s scary to go back to the well after suggesting what was a bad bet on the over in Game 2, backing this game to go over its total is my favourite play once again. It feels as though there are plenty of paths in which this game can be somewhat of a shootout, and I’m happy to back over 8 runs at a price of -125.

The Blue Jays offence has dominated elite pitching this postseason. Yamamoto offered a special performance in Game 2, but that doesn’t make me believe that Toronto’s offensive process can’t cause problems for Glasnow in this matchup and give them a chance to expose the Dodgers bullpen.

While Scherzer was able to author a solid start versus the Mariners off a lengthy layoff, the Dodgers provide a much more difficult test, and it is putting a lot of stock into one start to suggest he is poised for another strong showing Monday. Even if Scherzer is able to author a fairly strong outing, Toronto’s bullpen also has high blow-up potential right now.