MLB betting preview (Sept. 10): Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) hits a double against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Sep 10, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 10, 2025, 12:37 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will continue their three-game series with the Houston Astros on Wednesday night at Rogers Centre after a thrilling come-from-behind victory in the series opener on Tuesday night.

Toronto trailed 3-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth inning, but the Blue Jays loaded the bases with two walks and a single before Isiah Kiner-Falefa tied the game with a two-RBI base hit to send the game to extras. Tyler Heineman played the role of hero for Toronto in the 10th inning, driving in the winning run with a fielder’s choice grounder.

Houston has dropped four of its last five games and is 3-7 in its last 10.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Wednesday’s clash between the Astros and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Astros vs. Blue Jays odds

Astros moneyline odds	+110
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-130
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+155), Astros +1.5 (-185)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (-125), Under 8.5 (+105)
Date/time	Sept. 10, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Astros (78-67 SU, 73-72 ATS, 65-73-7 o/u)

Houston’s lead in the American League West is down to a single game over the Seattle Mariners due to its poor recent performance. It now has just a 48.4% chance of winning the division, according to FanGraphs, although the Astros are still incredibly likely to clinch a playoff berth at 79.3%.

Houston’s bullpen imploded again on Tuesday, as the team continued to struggle without injured closer Josh Hader. Starter Luis Garcia exited in the second inning due to discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow, forcing Houston to use six relievers in the crushing loss. Three of those relievers threw 20 pitches or more, which could impact some availability in Wednesday’s game, although Houston did have Monday off before beginning this series with Toronto.

About the Blue Jays (83-61 SU, 83-61 ATS, 79-60-5 o/u)

The Blue Jays maintained their three-game lead over the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox with Tuesday’s win, increasing their probability of winning the AL East to 74.2%, according to FanGraphs. Toronto is now also 5 1/2 games ahead of Houston in the AL standings, increasing its chances of a first-round playoff bye.

However, the Blue Jays did suffer a major setback when it was announced before Tuesday’s game that shortstop Bo Bichette was placed on the injured list with a left knee sprain. He’s been incredible for the Blue Jays this season, hitting .311 with 18 homers and 94 RBIs while boasting an .840 OPS. His absence for at least the next week or so will surely be felt while the team tries to solidify the best playoff stance possible heading into October.

Probable starting pitchers

Houston: RHP Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.68 ERA, 7.84 K/9)

Alexander really hit his stride in August, posting a 3-0 record with a 2.17 ERA across five starts, but he struggled a little last time out, giving up three runs on six hits over five innings against the Yankees. Bettors should be aware that he’s struggled mightily against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to slash a combined .282/.354/.542 with an .896 OPS. The Blue Jays will see a healthy diet of sinkers and changeups from Alexander, who only throws in the low 90s. He’s a relative unknown to Toronto’s roster, as only Daulton Varsho (2-for-3, 1 HR) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (0-for-2) have previous at-bats against Houston’s righty.

Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (9-5, 4.02 ERA, 7.62 K/9)

This should be an interesting start for Berrios, who is in danger of losing his spot in Toronto’s starting rotation. The veteran righty has struggled to a 4.81 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in five starts since the All-Star break, and he lasted just two innings against the Cincinnati Reds the last time he took the ball. However, Berrios does have drastic day/night splits that could work in his favour on Wednesday night, as he’s an incredible 7-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 17 night starts this season in comparison to a 2-4 mark with a 6.05 ERA during the day.

Notable injuries

Pitcher Ronel Blanco (elbow), pitcher Josh Hader (shoulder), pitcher Kaleb Ort (elbow), third baseman Isaac Paredes (hamstring), and second baseman Brendan Rodgers (concussion) are on the injured list for Houston.

Outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), pitcher Yimi Garcia (elbow), pitcher Alek Manoah (elbow), pitcher Bowden Francis (shoulder), and shortstop Bo Bichette (shin) are on the IL for Toronto.

Weather

It should be a fine night for outdoor baseball in Toronto, with temperatures around 20 C expected under clear skies. Winds will blow out to left field at just 6 mph.

Astros vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The under is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings between these teams, including all four meetings this season.
Houston is 39-31 on the runline on the road this season.
Toronto owns the best home record in the AL (46-24).
Toronto has the best over record in baseball (79-60-5 o/u).

Astros vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Jose Altuve has a .304 batting average and .838 OPS in 23 career at-bats against Berrios.
Berrios has recorded 16 outs or fewer in five of his last six starts and is -130 to record under 17.5 outs on Wednesday.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has exceeded 1.5 total bases in six straight games and is around +100 to do it again.
Jeremy Pena has struck out at least once in nine straight games and is a steep -270 to suffer the same fate.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bet

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases: +106 for one unit (best odds @ NorthStar Bets). Alvarez owns a ridiculous .444/.536/.711 slash line with a 1.247 OPS over the last 30 days, and he feasted on Blue Jays pitching Tuesday with three hits, including a double. He’s beaten this line in five of his last seven games and has had some moderate success against Berrios in the past, boasting a pair of homers and a .751 OPS in 16 career at-bats against Toronto’s struggling starting pitcher. This line is as short as -115 at some online sportsbooks, so be sure to lock it in at plus money over at NorthStar Bets.