MLB betting preview (Sept. 11): Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions

Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) gets Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Ernie Clement (22) out trying to steal second base during the fifth inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Sep 11, 2025, 09:56 EDTUpdated: Sep 11, 2025, 11:42 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will play the rubber match of their three-game series with the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre on Thursday afternoon.

Houston staged a late rally to claim a 3-2 win over Toronto on Wednesday after the Blue Jays eked out a 4-3 win in the series opener on Tuesday.

Toronto holds a three-game lead over the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox for the top spot in the American League East, while Houston is clinging to a one-game advantage over the Seattle Mariners for first place in the AL West.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Thursday’s series finale between the Astros and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Astros vs. Blue Jays odds

Astros moneyline odds	+130
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-155
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+135), Astros +1.5 (-160)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (-105), Under 8.5 (-115)
Date/time	Sept. 11, 3:07 p.m. ET

Probable starting pitchers

Houston: RHP Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA, 8.85 K/9)

Javier will be making just his sixth start of the season, and he’s coming off a disappointing outing against the Yankees, who scored four runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings against him. Houston’s right-hander was solid before that start, though, posting a 1-1 record with a 3.38 ERA across four August starts. Javier’s fastball averages just 93 mph, but its significant rising effect has held hitters to a .188 batting average and .170 xBA.

Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA, 8.64 K/9)

Gausman is in terrific form, holding the opposition to two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. He tossed eight dominant innings of one-run ball against the high-powered Yankees last time out, so he should take some confidence to the mound on Thursday. The righty has dominated left-handed batters this season, holding them to a .174/.232/.324 slash line this season. Gausman turned in a mediocre outing against Houston back in April, allowing four earned runs on six hits over six frames.

Notable injuries

Pitcher Ronel Blanco (elbow), pitcher Josh Hader (shoulder), pitcher Kaleb Ort (elbow), pitcher Luis Garcia (elbow), third baseman Isaac Paredes (hamstring), and second baseman Brendan Rodgers (concussion) are on the injured list for Houston.

Outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), pitcher Yimi Garcia (elbow), pitcher Alek Manoah (elbow), pitcher Bowden Francis (shoulder), and shortstop Bo Bichette (shin) are on the IL for Toronto.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 24 °C under sunny skies. Winds will blow out to centre field at 8 mph.

Astros vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The under is 9-3 in the past 11 meetings between these teams, including all five meetings this season.
Houston is 40-31 on the runline on the road this season.
Toronto is 46-25 at Rogers Centre this season.
Houston is 4-1 against the Blue Jays this season.

Astros vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Javier has walked two or more batters in three straight starts and four of his five appearances this season. You’ll have to pay a steep price of around -200 if you like the over, though.
Ernie Clement has exceeded 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in five straight games and eight of his last 10. He’s around even money if you like the over.
Carlos Correa has homered in back-to-back games and has three in his last five contests. He’s around +525 to go deep.
Yainer Diaz has collected at least one RBI in four straight games and is +245 to drive in a run.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bet

Game total under 8.5 runs: -110 for one unit (best odds @ Pinnacle). These two teams have played under the game total in all five previous meetings this season, and Thursday should be no different. We have a solid starting pitching matchup for this afternoon’s tilt, and it’s getaway day for the Astros, who are off to Atlanta following this contest. This should be another tight, low-scoring affair, so place your wagers accordingly.

Greg’s Blue Jays betting record to date: 56-50 (+17 units).