MLB Betting Preview (Sept. 11): Mets vs. Blue Jays predictions
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
By Greg Warren
Sep 11, 2024, 08:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 11, 2024, 10:44 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will play the rubber match of a three-game interleague series with the New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon at Rogers Centre.
Toronto rallied behind starter Chris Bassitt on Tuesday night to claim a 6-2 victory after the Mets squeezed out a 3-2 win in the series opener on Monday.
Despite Tuesday’s loss, the Mets have still won 10 of their last 12 games to remain one of the hottest teams in the majors. Toronto has just two wins in its last eight games.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s clash between the Mets and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:
Mets vs. Blue Jays odds
Mets Moneyline Odds | -130 |
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +110 |
Runline Odds | Mets -1.5 (+130), Blue Jays +1.5 (-155) |
Over/Under | Over 8 runs (-105), Under 8 runs (-115) |
Time/Date | Sept. 11, 3:07 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting New York Mets (79-66 SU, 76-69 ATS, 71-69-5 o/u)
The Mets enter play Wednesday deadlocked with the Atlanta Braves for the final National League Wild Card spot with identical 79-66 records. However, they have just a 45.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs’ projections, due to a difficult schedule down the stretch. New York has six games remaining against the NL East-leading Phillies, three against the NL Central-leading Brewers, and three in Atlanta against the Braves. Collecting wins against sub-.500 opponents, like the Blue Jays and Nationals over the next week, will be paramount to their playoff chances.
The biggest issue for the Mets right now is that the bats have gone cold at the worst time. They have just five runs on nine hits in this series against Toronto, and now they’ll face one of the hottest starting pitchers in the majors right now, Bowden Francis. Prior to Tuesday night, the Mets had held the opposition to four runs or less in 11 consecutive games. David Peterson, who has been incredible for the Mets since the All-Star break, coughed up five runs to Toronto and couldn’t complete five innings.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (69-77 SU, 78-68 ATS, 75-67-4 o/u)
Every player in Toronto’s starting nine collected at least one hit on Tuesday, including Spencer Horwitz who recorded a pair of knocks and drove in a run. Horwitz is seeing red right now, slashing .300/.376/.622 with seven homers and 15 RBIs over the last 30 days. Davis Schneider also drove in a pair of runs after failing to record a RBI since late July. The fan favourite slashed a miserable .064/.154/.085 in August while striking out 23 times.
Shortstop Bo Bichette began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday, going 1-for-3 with a single. He hasn’t played since July 19 due to a calf strain, but it’s possible he rejoins the team in the coming days and weeks. It’s been a miserable season for Bichette, who has posted a .222/.275/.320 slash line with just four home runs through 80 games.
Probable starting pitchers
New York: LHP Sean Manaea (11-5, 3.43 ERA, 9.32 K/9, 1.10 WHIP)
Manaea had a nice run of allowing three earned runs or less in eight straight starts until the Cincinnati Reds tagged him for two home runs and four runs over 6 2/3 innings the last time he took the mound. He’s pitched better on the road this season (6-2, 2.90 ERA in 14 starts), and he’s really caught fire since the All-Star break, holding opposing hitters to a .183 batting average. The Blue Jays will see a steady diet of sinkers in addition to several breaking pitches from the big left-hander.
Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (8-4, 3.72 ERA, 8.61 K/9, 0.99 WHIP)
Francis was phenomenal in August, posting a 1.05 ERA while striking out 39 batters over 34 1/3 innings of work to earn American League Pitcher of the Month honours. His first start of September was also decent, as he held the Phillies to three runs over six innings of work. He’ll want to finish the season on a high note in order to cement a spot in the team’s rotation next year, and he should continue to have success thanks to his elite 4.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Weather
It should be a perfect afternoon for baseball in Toronto, with temperatures around 23 C expected under sunny skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 8 mph.
MLB betting trends
- The under is 8-3-1 in New York’s last 12 games.
- The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 27 of their last 43 games.
- The Mets are 51-33 SU in night games this season.
MLB player prop trends
- Francis has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts. He’s -105 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
- Manaea has recorded 20 outs or more in five straight starts and seven of his last eight. He’s -220 to record over 17.5 outs.
- Francis has recorded 18 outs or more in five straight starts. He’s -130 to record over 17.5 outs.
- Manaea has allowed five hits or less in six straight starts. He’s -170 to allow under 5.5 hits.
- Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk has hit safely in eight straight games. He’s -220 to get a hit.
Mets vs. Blue Jays predictions
- Five innings total under 4.5 runs: -145. Both of these starting pitchers are throwing fire right now, so we should see a low-scoring affair, at least until the bullpens get involved on Wednesday afternoon, especially considering it’s a getaway day for the Mets who will be off to Philadelphia for their next series on Friday.
- The Mets let us down last night on the moneyline, but it’s hard not to back them again at -130 odds against a team out of playoff contention. They’ve been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last couple of weeks, and they need this win to keep pace in the Wild Card standings before their schedule gets significantly more difficult later this month.