MLB betting preview (Sept. 12): Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Myles Straw (3) is out at first on a sacrifice bunt against Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday (7) during the eighth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Photo credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Sep 12, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 12, 2025, 12:15 EDT

After taking two of three games from the Houston Astros, the Toronto Blue Jays will open a three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre on Friday.

This will be Toronto’s last home series before hitting the road for seven games with stops in Tampa Bay and Kansas City.

Baltimore is playing some really fine baseball right now, claiming wins in eight of its last nine games, including a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates earlier this week.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Orioles and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds

Orioles moneyline odds	+115
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-135
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+155), Orioles +1.5 (-185)
Game total	Over 8 runs (-105), Under 8 runs (-115)
Date/time	Sept. 12, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Orioles (69-77 SU, 71-75 ATS, 60-82-4 o/u)

The Orioles are incredibly hot entering this series despite being far out of playoff contention in the American League. They began September with a three-game sweep of the Padres in San Diego, then took two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers in Baltimore, and then swept the Pirates at Camden Yards.

They’ve received some excellent pitching during their current run, holding the opposition to an average of just 2.6 runs per game over their last nine contests. Perhaps more impressive is that Baltimore’s pitchers largely silenced the potent bats of the Padres and Dodgers. The same can’t be said for the Pirates, though, as they rank as one of the worst offensive teams in baseball.

About the Blue Jays (84-62 SU, 84-62 ATS, 79-62-5 o/u)

The Blue Jays find themselves in a strong position with just 16 games left to play, holding a three-game lead over the New York Yankees for the top spot in the American League East. They also hold a 5 1/2-game advantage over the Seattle Mariners for a potential bye in the first round of the playoffs.

Toronto is averaging five runs per game (fourth in the majors) while leading MLB in team batting average (.268) and on-base percentage (.337). It also ranks second in team OPS (.769).

Probable starting pitchers

Baltimore: LHP Trevor Rogers (8-2, 1.51 ERA, 8.18 K/9)

Rogers has very quietly been one of the best starting pitchers in the majors this season. Opponents are only barreling him up at 6.2%, which ranks in the 81st percentile in the majors, and his 5.5% walk rate is also elite, ranking in the 90th percentile. Incredibly, Rogers hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 15 starts this season, and he’s coming off a solid start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who managed just two runs over 5 1/3 innings against the southpaw.

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (11-8, 3.97 ERA, 8.78 K/9)

Bassitt is on a really nice run right now, holding the opposition to three earned runs or less in each of his last seven starts. He’s also been incredible at Rogers Centre this season, posting an 8-0 record with a 2.76 ERA across 15 home starts. This will be his third start against the Orioles after having mixed results in the first two. Back in March, Bassitt was brilliant, holding the O’s to one run over six innings while striking out seven. However, he was beaten up in Baltimore in July, lasting just 2 1/3 innings while allowing six earned runs.

Notable injuries

Baltimore’s list of injured players is extensive, with outfielder Tyler O’Neill (wrist), infielder Jordan Westburg (ankle), catcher Adley Rutschman (oblique), pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (elbow), pitcher Zach Eflin (back), and closer Felix Bautista (shoulder) all on the injured list. Pitcher Dean Kremer is day-to-day with a forearm issue.

Outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), pitcher Yimi Garcia (elbow), pitcher Alek Manoah (elbow), pitcher Bowden Francis (shoulder), and shortstop Bo Bichette (shin) are on the IL for Toronto.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 18 °C under clear skies. Winds will blow lightly from right field to left field at 5 mph.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
Baltimore leads the season series, 6-4.
Toronto is 47-25 at home this season.
Toronto has played under the total in six straight games.
Baltimore has played under the total in six straight games.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Rogers has struck out five or more batters in eight straight starts and nine of his last 10. He’s around +100 to record over 4.5 strikeouts.
Bassitt has walked two or more batters in seven straight starts and is -120 to record over 1.5 strikeouts.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit safely in four straight games and nine of his last 10. He’s -185 to record a hit.
Rogers has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 15 outings this season. He’s -125 to record under 2.5 earned runs.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays best bets

Game total under 8 runs scored: -115 for one unit (best odds @ bet365). Both of these teams have been trending under game totals recently, and we have a formidable starting pitching matchup on Friday night with the red-hot Rogers taking on Bassitt, who has been absolutely dominant at Rogers Centre this season. Both teams will be missing some offensive players (Bichette for Toronto and Rutschman, Westburg, and O’Neill for Baltimore), which should also help keep this a low-scoring affair. I’m also going to play the first five innings total under 4 runs at even money odds at bet365 for one unit.

Greg’s Blue Jays betting record to date: 57-50 (+18 units).