The Toronto Blue Jays will have the opportunity to extend their winning streak to six games Tuesday after earning a dramatic 2-1 win in Monday’s series opener with the Tampa Bay Rays to stretch their lead atop the AL East to five games.

Oddsmakers have Tuesday’s matchup priced as a pick’em at the time of writing, which suggests that they believe Rays starter Ryan Pepiot (3.59 ERA, 163 IP) offers an edge over Jose Berrios (3.99 ERA, 160 IP), considering the disparity between the two teams offensively. Pepiot has allowed just two hits and zero earned runs over his last three starts and will be facing the Blue Jays for the third time this season.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and the Rays, courtesy of bet365.

Thanks to a fantastic MLB debut from Trey Yesavage and an excellent showing from the Blue Jays bullpen, they were able to scrape out a rare road win over the Rays on Monday, something that has proven highly difficult for the franchise historically.

Rays starter Joe Boyle displayed much better command than usual, and the Jays had a tough time handling his high-quality stuff in Monday’s matchup. While Monday’s offensive performance was disappointing, Toronto did make 11 outs on balls in play with expected batting averages of about .300 and had some tough luck on a number of well-hit lineouts.

The Blue Jays lead the league by a wide margin with a .291 batting average with runners in scoring position, a mark that could be unsustainable, but will hopefully hold true throughout the postseason. Though potential regression with RISP is a concern, there are still a number of predictive metrics that suggest the Blue Jays are one of the best offensive teams in baseball aside from their excellent production on the scoreboard where it matters most.

The Blue Jays hold an expected batting average of .271, which is the highest mark in MLB. They also hold the fourth-best expected weighted on-base average, the lowest strikeout rate in MLB, and the highest BB/K ratio. The depth of the lineup has been a positive all season long and has remained a strength in a number of recent matchups in which important rallies have been led by the bottom of the order.

Since the All-Star break, Toronto holds the second-highest wRC+ in baseball versus right-handed pitching, as well as an OPS of .868.

Jose Berrios was able to get right with a solid performance versus the Houston Astros last Wednesday, but his form in the second half of the season still has to be viewed as a concern. Throughout his last 44 2/3 innings of work, Berríos holds an ERA of 4.63 and a FIP of 4.94. He’s been hard-hit 44% of the time in that span and managed a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 13.2%.

Considering his poor pitch metrics in the second half (86 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+), it’s no surprise that Berríos is allowing a lot of hard contact and not generating much swing-and-miss.

Pepiot enters this matchup off of three consecutive high-quality outings, which followed an ugly string of starts coming out of the All-Star break. Pepiot’s recent hot streak coincides with a favourable slate of opponents, as his last three games have come against teams with an average wRC+ of 85 versus right-handed pitching since August 1st, and he also appears to have had favourable luck on balls in play in those matchups.

Since the All-Star break, Pepiot holds an ERA of 4.07 and a FIP of 4.11. He’s been hard-hit 43% of the time in that span and holds a strikeout- minus-walk rate of 16.1%. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 98 throughout his nine second-half starts and a Pitching+ of 94 during his last three outings.

Since August 1st, the Rays hold a wRC+ of 98 versus right-handed pitching and a 13th-ranked slug rate of .421. They have been drastically more productive when playing at home this season, hitting to a wRC+ of 106 at a ballpark with the same specs as Yankee Stadium, compared to a mark of 89 on the road.

While both offences were stagnant in Monday’s series opener as Yesavage and Boyle were both in command of their high-quality stuff, it seems unlikely that we will see that type of pitchers’ duel in Tuesday’s matchup with Berrios set to take on Pepiot.

Pepiot has been dominant in his last three outings, but he was aided by a notably soft schedule of opponents and some good luck on balls in-play. The Blue Jays lineup has been extremely hard on righties in the second half and should be able to bounce back from a lethargic showing in this matchup.

Berrios has pitched to below-average results in the second half of the season, and his underlying profile suggests that he will continue to struggle moving forward.

Considering the batter-friendly environment of Tuesday’s game, this appears to be a good spot to fade Berrios and Pepiot and back the game to feature over 8.5 total runs at -115.