MLB Betting Preview (Sept. 19): Blue Jays vs. Rangers predictions
Photo credit: © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Sep 19, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 19, 2024, 11:48 EDT
The Texas Rangers will look to complete a three-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon in Arlington.
Texas claimed a 2-0 victory on Wednesday over Toronto, backed by a strong pitching performance from Cody Bradford, who threw seven shutout innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen. Adolis Garcia launched a two-run homer in the sixth inning that proved to be the difference in the game.
Heading into this series, Texas had dropped five of its previous six contests.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Thursday’s series finale between the Blue Jays and Rangers courtesy of bet365:
Blue Jays vs. Rangers odds
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | -105 |
Rangers Moneyline Odds | -115 |
Runline Odds | Rangers -1.5 (+180), Blue Jays +1.5 (-220) |
Over/Under | Over 7.5 runs (-105), Under 7.5 runs (-115) |
Time/Date | Sept. 19, 2:35 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (72-80 SU, 79-73 ATS, 78-70-4 o/u)
It looked like Bowden Francis, who flirted with a no-hitter in his previous start, was going to throw another gem on Wednesday until Garcia took him deep in the sixth inning. However, he still pitched six strong innings, striking out six in the loss. More importantly, he at least gave the Jays some length, which leaves the bullpen fairly rested heading into this matchup.
After missing nearly two months with a calf strain, Bo Bichette suffered a new injury while fielding ground balls prior to Wednesday’s game. He took a ball off his right middle finger and is likely out on Thursday. He’ll undergo testing to determine the extent of the injury.
Davis Schneider’s home run streak was also halted at three games on Wednesday, as he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout.
Betting Texas Rangers (73-79 SU, 66-85 ATS, 69-75-7 o/u)
Garcia has feasted on Blue Jays pitching this year, launching two homers and recording nine RBIs in five games against Toronto this year, while posting a .368/.455/.684 slash line with a 1.139 OPS. However, it’s been a down year overall for the slugger, who mashed 39 home runs a year ago. He has 23 homers entering this contest but is on pace for career lows in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, OPS, and WAR.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (12-11, 4.02 ERA, 8.10 K/9, 1.25 WHIP)
Gausman has been great down the stretch, posting a 5-3 record with a 3.27 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break. He also tossed a complete game against Texas back in July, holding the Rangers to three runs while striking out eight. The veteran right-hander has thrown 100 pitches or more in six of his last seven starts, so don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays give him a shorter hook on Thursday. There’s no point in pushing him past 100 pitches again with the team out of playoff contention.
Texas: RHP Kumar Rocker (0-0, 2.25 ERA, 15.75 K/9, 1.25 WHIP)
Rocker, the Rangers’ top pitching prospect, made his MLB debut last week against the Seattle Mariners, throwing four innings of one-run ball while striking out seven. He was limited to just 74 pitches in that start, so don’t expect him to throw 100-plus on Thursday and endure a lengthy outing. The No. 3 overall pick of the 2022 draft throws either his slider, or 97-mph fastball, around roughly 90% of the time, and he’ll have the element of surprise against the Blue Jays, who will be seeing him for the first time.
Weather
This game will likely be played with the roof closed as daytime temperatures are expected to hit around 37 C under sunny skies.
MLB betting trends
- The Rangers have covered the runline in eight of their last 10 home games.
- The Blue Jays have been underdogs in 76 games this season and have won 26 of those contests (34.2%).
- The over is 4-1 in the previous five meetings between the teams this season.
MLB player prop trends
- Gausman has walked two or more batters in nine of his last 10 starts, averaging 2.5 per start during that span. He’s -135 to record over 1.5 walks.
- Nathan Lukes has exceeded his line for hits + runs + RBIs in four straight games. He’s -115 to record over 1.5 on Thursday.
- Schneider has homered in three of his last four games. He’s +470 to go deep.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers predictions
- Rocker over 4.5 strikeouts: -125. Rocker’s slider is absolutely electric, and the pitch notched him 13 whiffs on 21 swings for five strikeouts in his MLB debut. This will be the first time the Blue Jays have seen him and his hard-breaking slider, so there could be plenty of whiffs the first couple of times through the order until adjustments are made.
- Gausman over 1.5 walks: -135. He’s exceeded this line at a 65% rate over his last 20 starts and at a 59% rate this season (in addition to going over in nine of his last 10 starts), so we’re getting good value here.