The Blue Jays are priced as slight betting underdogs on Tuesday as they look to respond after suffering a heartbreaking loss in Monday’s series opener.

The Blue Jays’ lead atop the AL East has been cut to just 2.5 games after Monday’s loss, and with just 24 games left in the regular season, it figures to be an exciting month of September. Toronto holds a record of 5-5 over its last 10 games and also owns a record of 34-35 on the road this season.

At the time of writing, the Blue Jays are priced at -105 to win Tuesday’s matchup, as oddsmakers are crediting Reds starter Nick Lodolo (3.22 ERA, 134 and 1/3 IP) as a superior pitcher to Jose Berrios (3.95 ERA, 152 and 2/3 IP), who will make his 28th start of the season for Toronto.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and the Reds:

The Jays were handed a tough situation on Monday, as after travelling out of Toronto Sunday evening, they faced off against one of the NL’s best starters in Hunter Greene the following morning. While it always would have been a fairly respectable game to lose, the outcome hurt much more after Toronto managed three runs in the top of the ninth to claim a two-run lead before the bullpen faltered once again in a high-leverage spot.

Over the last 30 days, Blue Jays relievers have struggled to an ERA of .70 and have been horrific in high-leverage spots during that time frame, pitching to an ERA of 6.52. While John Schneider’s bullpen usage has been questionable at times, the majority of the Jays’ supposed high-leverage arms have been in poor form and aren’t leaving the Jays skipper with easy decisions.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen is not in great shape from a rest perspective entering this matchup, as Yariel Rodriguez and Jeff Hoffman have both thrown 39 pitches over the last three days, while Tommy Nance, Seranthony Dominguez, and Louis Varland have all thrown 24 or more pitches since Saturday.

In seven starts since the All-Star break, Berrios has pitched to an ERA of 4.58 and holds an FIP of 4.58. He’s been hard-hit 40.2% of the time in that span and allowed a batting average of .284. His pitch metrics from those outings have also been highly unconvincing, as he holds a Stuff+ of 71 and Pitching+ of 86.

While the Blue Jays’ pitching staff has been in shaky form of late, the offence has been effective while continuing to receive strong production up and down the lineup. The Blue Jays hold a wRC+ of 132 over the last 30 days, which is the second-highest mark in MLB. They have slugged .490 during that span and rank fourth in hard-hit rate.

Toronto also holds the third-highest wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this season and holds the lowest strikeout rate in MLB versus lefties. Over the entirety of the season, the Blue Jays also hold the highest expected batting average in MLB.

Anthony Santander is currently the only position player who is unavailable due to injury.

It will be strength on strength in this matchup, as a Blue Jays lineup which has been highly effective against lefties this season takes on a quality arm in Lodolo.

Lodolo has pitched to an ERA of 3.22 and an xERA of 3.58 this season. In five starts since the All-Star break, he’s pitched to an ERA of 2.50 and a FIP of 2.63. He holds an excellent strikeout minus walk rate of 26.8 in that span and a Stuff+ of 104 with a Pitching+ of 100.

The Reds’ bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 3.92 this season, but does appear to have overachieved based on their 26th-ranked xFIP of 4.44. Over the last 30 days ,it holds an xFIP of 4.30 and a strikeout minus walk rate of 13%.

While they have managed to remain loosely in playoff contention, the Reds have not been overly productive at the plate recently. Over the last 30 days, they own a wRC+ of 85 and have struck out 24.2% of the time. They hold drastically better splits versus righties than lefties this season, as they hold a fairly mediocre wRC+ of 98 versus righties.

The Blue Jays have been leaning heavily upon their elite offensive play to get results recently, as their starting rotation has been overly convincing, while the bullpen has struggled mightily.

It seems likely that Toronto will once again require a strong offensive showing to earn a win on Tuesday, as Berrios has been fairly unconvincing recently, both in terms of his actual ERA and underlying results, while the bullpen is not in great shape from a rest perspective and has been in poor form.

Lodolo has been in great form recently and provides a tough matchup, but the Blue Jays have found plenty of success versus quality lefty starters based on their elite plate discipline and ability to string together quality at-bats.

Over the past two seasons, Great American Ball Park has played as the third most favourable ballpark in baseball for run creation. With that in mind and Tuesday’s pitching matchup, there looks to be value in backing this game to feature over 8.5 total runs.