The Toronto Blue Jays are heavily favoured in Friday’s matchup, as they open up a critical three-game series versus the Tampa Bay Rays. While the Rays have played to a record of 10-13 in September and will finish below .500 this season, the Blue Jays have struggled versus Tampa Bay once again this season, playing to a record of 3-7 in head-to-head matchups.

On paper, the Blue Jays hold a significant starting pitching advantage in Friday’s matchup, as Shane Bieber (3.57 ERA, 35 1/3 IP) will face off against Adrian Houser (3.18 ERA, 110 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

The Blue Jays could be catching a big break in this series, as Yandy Diaz may be unavailable after leaving Thursday’s matchup with groin tightness. Diaz ranks second on the team with an OPS of .851 this season, behind only Jonathan Aranda, who could also remain sidelined due to injury.

Diaz holds an OPS of 1.106 and has slugged .595 in the month of September and has been a driving force behind the Rays’ solid offensive play of late.

Since September 1st, the Rays have held a wRC+ of 103 and rank 11th in weighted on-base average. While Tampa Bay has been effective offensively recently, it holds the third-highest BABIP in baseball this month, despite ranking 27th in hard-hit rate. It has also struck out 23% of the time and walked at the 23rd-lowest rate in MLB.

The Rays have also been significantly less productive versus right-handed pitching recently, hitting to a wRC+ of 91 this month.

Houser offers a solid matchup for the Blue Jays to try and build on Thursday’s offensive performance. The veteran righty holds an xERA of 4.10 and an xFIP of 4.30 this season and has allowed an ERA of 4.58 throughout his last 10 appearances. In those 10 starts, he holds a Stuff+ rating of 92 and managed a strikeout-minus-walk rate of just 10.7% while being hard-hit 49% of the time.

The Rays bullpen has been in strong form recently, pitching to an ERA of 3.73 and an xFIP of 3.60 over the last 30 days. Most of their top options, such as Pete Fairbanks, Garrett Cleavinger, and Edwin Uceta, are well-rested entering this series.

After going scoreless in the first five innings of Thursday’s matchup, the Blue Jays finally got the big hit they needed when Daulton Varsho blew the game wide open with a grand slam, powering the team to a desperately needed win. Varsho’s clutch homer may ultimately be viewed as a turning point for the team, as the pressure to snap out of their recent offensive slump had reached a fever point.

While the Blue Jays’ recent offensive struggles have been the main talking point surrounding the team, it’s been lefties in particular that have given the team fits. Since the start of September, the Blue Jays are still among the top 10 teams in baseball with a wRC+ of 105 versus right-handed pitchers and hold the third-best BB/K ratio versus righties.

Addison Barger’s recent ineffectiveness at the plate has been one key reason for the team’s lesser results compared to earlier in the season, as he’s batted just .138 over the last 10 games. Barger’s process still seems solid though, as during that time he holds an xBA of .261, a hard-hit rate of 44%, and has struck out just 13% of the time while walking 9% of the time.

A matchup versus Houser could provide a good opportunity for Barger to snap out of his current 0-for-7 slump at the plate, as Barger has slugged .473 versus right-handed pitchers this season, while Houser has pitched to an xFIP of 4.85 to lefties this season.

The Blue Jays provided Shane Bieber with an extra day of rest by pitching a bullpen game on Thursday, hoping to keep the likely Game 2 starter in good shape entering the postseason.

Bieber will be making his sixth start with the team in this matchup and has made a strong first impression, pitching to a 3.07 ERA and 3.07 xFIP throughout his first 35 1/3 innings with the team. He holds a strong strikeout-minus-walk rate of 21.2% and holds a Pitching+ rating of 102 this season.

A matchup versus Houser provides a strong opportunity for the Blue Jays to build on Thursday’s strong offensive performance, which will hopefully prove to be a turning point entering the final series of the season. Houser’s stuff does not grade out overly well, and therefore, it’s no surprise that he ranks in the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed this season.

Bieber has had a strong start to the season, leaning on strong command to achieve quality results. The Rays provide a solid matchup for him to author another quality start, especially if Diaz and Aranda are to remain out of the lineup.

At -130, I see value in backing the Blue Jays to win the first five innings of this matchup and would bet it down to -135.

This also appears to be a good spot for Barger to break out of his offensive slump and record two or more total bases, given the long price of +145. His process at the plate has been solid recently, and his expected average on balls in play is still quite respectable. Houser has allowed a ton of hard contact versus LHB this season, and offers a good matchup for Barger to get right.