MLB Betting Preview (Sept. 27): Marlins vs. Blue Jays predictions

oronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) pitches to the Texas Rangers during the sixth inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Sep 27, 2024, 08:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 27, 2024, 11:53 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will begin their final series of the season when they host the Miami Marlins on Friday night at Rogers Centre.

Toronto is coming off a 6-1 win over the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, but the team still dropped two of the three games in the series to Boston to lose its third straight series.

Miami, one of the worst teams in baseball, enjoyed playing the spoiler role earlier this week, taking two of three from the Minnesota Twins, who are battling for a playoff spot in the American League.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Marlins and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Marlins vs. Blue Jays odds

Marlins Moneyline Odds	+165
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	-200
Runline Odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+110), Marlins +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under	Over 8 runs (-120), Under 8 runs (+100)
Time/Date	Sept. 27, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Miami Marlins (59-100 SU, 74-85 ATS, 83-65-11 o/u)

The Marlins flat out stink in every department. They average 3.8 runs per game (28th in the majors) while giving up 5.2 runs per game (29th in the majors), and they’re the worst team defensively, with a .980 fielding percentage.

This team also has unusual home/away over/under splits. At home, the Marlins are the best team in the majors at playing over totals with a 53-20-8 over/under mark. But on the road, Miami is one of the best under teams with a 30-45-3 o/u record. The Marlins have actually performed around league average offensively at home, putting up 4.2 runs per game. But on the road, they’re averaging just 3.4 runs per contest.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (74-85 SU, 83-76 ATS, 70-76-4 o/u)

The final three games of the season will continue to be all about rotating some of the team’s young talent into the lineup. One of those young players is Jonatan Clase, who posted three hits with two RBIs and two runs scored on Wednesday against Boston.

One major storyline to monitor heading into the weekend is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s pursuit of a batting title. He enters the weekend with a .325 batting average, just seven points shy of Bobby Witt Jr.’s .332 mark. With a hot weekend at the plate, it’s entirably feasible that Vladdy can catch the Kansas City superstar.

Probable starting pitchers

Miami: RHP Adam Oller (1-4, 5.06 ERA, 7.96 K/9, 1.47 WHIP)

Oller will be making his eighth start for the Marlins, and he’s coming off a pair of decent outings. He allowed five earned runs across his last two starts against the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals while striking out nine across 10 2/3 innings. Bettors should know that he struggles with his control, having issued at least two walks in all seven of his starts this season.

Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (16-10, 3.38 ERA, 7.08 K/9, 1.13 WHIP)

Berrios has very quietly had an exceptional season, really picking up the pace in the second half. He’s 8-3, with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break, and he’s holding opposing batters to a .208 batting average during that span. The veteran right-hander has allowed two earned runs or less in eight straight starts, and he held the Tampa Bay Rays to one earned run over six innings the last time he took the mound.

Weather

It’s very possible we see some outdoor baseball in Toronto this evening, with temperatures expected around 19 C under clear skies. If the dome is open, winds will blow in from right field at 14 mph.

MLB betting trends

The Blue Jays have played over the total in 35 of their past 55 home games.
The under is 7-1 in Toronto’s last eight games.

MLB player prop trends

As previously mentioned, Oller has issued two or more walks in all seven of his starts this season. Oddsmakers have taken notice, setting his line at 2.5 walks (+125 for the over) in this one.
Berrios has allowed six hits or less in eight of his last 10 starts and at a 74% rate this season. He’s -165 to allow six hits or less.
Berrios has allowed two earned runs or less in eight straight starts. He’s -125 to go under that mark on Friday.
Jesus Sanchez and Jonah Bride each have five-game hitting streaks heading into action Friday. Sanchez is -225 to get a hit, Bride is -230.

Marlins vs. Blue Jays predictions

Look for Berrios to finish the season strong with another quality start against the lowly Marlins. Back him to allow under 2.5 earned runs (-125) and under 6.5 hits (-165). You can parlay those two markets for more favourable odds, if desired.
We’ve had success backing Guerrero Jr. this week, so let’s go back to the well with over 1.5 total bases at -130 odds. He’s 0-for-2 in his career against Oller, but that’s too small of a sample size to deter us from backing the red-hot Vlad in his pursuit of a batting title.