The Blue Jays are heavily favoured to win Wednesday’s series finale versus the Reds, as Shane Bieber (2.38 ERA, 11 and 1/3 IP) will make his third start of the season against Zack Littell (3.63 ERA, 161 IP).

While Tuesday’s game was more stressful than it needed to be, considering the Jays’ 12-run output, Jeff Hoffman was able to close it out with a solid showing in the ninth inning, keeping Toronto’s lead atop the AL East at 2.5 games with only 23 games left to play.

At the time of writing, the Blue Jays are priced at -160 to win Wednesday’s matchup, as Bieber will look to continue his excellent start to the season versus Littell, who has pitched to an ERA of 3.90 since being traded to the Reds at the trade deadline.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and the Reds:

Both the starting rotation and bullpen continue to look less convincing than desired for the Blue Jays, who hold a team ERA of 4.14 over the last 30 days. While Toronto’s 4.14 ERA still ranks 13th in baseball during that span, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox rank first and third, respectively, and the Blue Jays’ staff may prove to be a costly disadvantage in the race for the division with that in mind.

Bieber’s tremendous start to the season is one major cause for optimism among the Blue Jays’ starting rotation. It may be jumping the gun a little bit after just two outings, but the former Cy Young winner appears to be on track to start Game One come the postseason for Toronto.

Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, Bieber has pitched to an ERA of 1.16, albeit in just 23 and 1/3 innings of work. He’s been even more dominant than his 2.38 ERA suggests in his first two appearances of this season, as he holds an xFIP of 1.70 and a strikeout minus walk rate of 36.6%.

While it’s a tiny sample of only two starts, Bieber simply seems to be picking up where he left off before receiving Tommy John surgery and may prove to be a savvy pickup from GM Ross Atkins, given that few high-quality starters were available at the deadline.

The Blue Jays lineup will be familiar with Littell thanks to his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto will be facing him for the second time this season in Wednesday’s matchup. The Blue Jays managed eight hits and three earned runs off of Littell on May 15th in Tampa Bay.

Since the All-Star break, the Blue Jays have been the most productive team in MLB, slugging .489 with a wRC+ of 149. They have struck out less than any other team during that span and rank seventh in hard-hit rate. While the depth of the lineup continues to be a big story, with George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all in excellent form, the top of the order has become a nightmare for opposing pitchers.

Most underlying metrics suggest that Littell has been fortunate to hold a better-than-average ERA this season, as he holds an FIP of 4.79 and an xERA of 4.53. Much of his overachievement comes down to his 82.6% strand rate, and regression in that key area would lead to drastically worse results.

In eight appearances since the All-Star break, Littell holds an xFIP of 4.45 and a strikeout minus walk rate of 10.4%. His pitch metrics from that time frame are also highly unconvincing, as he holds a Stuff+ of 69 and a Pitching+ of 83.

Cincinnati’s lineup has given the Blue Jays a tough time in the first two games of this series, but based on their form entering the last two matchups, that could be taken as a reason to feel even more concerned about Toronto’s pitching staff. Over the last 30 days, the Reds rank 25th in wRC+ and hold the sixth-worst BB/K ratio in baseball.

The Reds also rank 19th in wRC+ versus righties this season and own the third-lowest hard-hit rate in MLB.

Bieber has pitched extremely well in his first two outings of the season and will have a good chance to offer another strong outing on Wednesday as he takes on a Reds lineup that has been in poor form over the last month of play.

Even if Bieber does falter to some extent, the Blue Jays’ red-hot lineup could have a productive day versus a starter who appears to be due for negative regression in Littell.

Isolating the Bieber versus Littell innings by backing the Blue Jays to win the first five innings at -130 appears to provide value, and could save you from having to sweat out another potential meltdown from the Blue Jays’ bullpen. However, given the disparity between the two prices, I still see the most value in backing Bieber to record a win at +125 and hoping that the bullpen can hold a potential lead.