MLB betting preview (Sept. 9): Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) forces Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) out at second base but is not enough to turn the double play in time in the fifth inning at Daikin Park.

Photo credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Sep 9, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 9, 2025, 12:28 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will open a pivotal three-game series with the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night.

Toronto is coming off a 3-3 road trip that included dropping two of three to the New York Yankees over the weekend. However, the Blue Jays still boast the best record in the American League at 82-61, and a series win against Houston this week could go a long way in clinching a first-round playoff bye.

Houston is also in mediocre form, winning just four of its last 10 games. It has dropped back-to-back series to the Texas Rangers and Yankees.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Tuesday’s series opener between the Astros and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Astros vs. Blue Jays odds

Astros moneyline odds	+130
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-155
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+130), Astros +1.5 (-155)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (-110), Under 8.5 (-110)
Date/time	Sept. 9, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Astros (78-66 SU, 72-72 ATS, 65-72-7 o/u)

Bettors should be aware of potential live-betting opportunities ahead of this series, as the Astros’ bullpen has been putrid since losing closer Josh Hader to injury in early August, ranking 26th in ERA and home runs allowed and 28th in hard-hit rate in that span. Bryan Abreu has been promoted to the team’s closer, while Steven Okert and Bryan King are also handling high-leverage duties. Veteran closer Craig Kimbrel is also being used in a middle relief role and has impressed since being acquired in late August, holding the opposition scoreless through 5 2/3 innings, albeit with an ugly 1.59 WHIP.

It should be noted that the Astros swept three games against the Blue Jays in Houston in April, outscoring them 15-2.

About the Blue Jays (82-61 SU, 83-60 ATS, 79-59-5 o/u)

The Blue Jays still hold a two-game lead over the Yankees for the top spot in the AL East heading into this series, but they’ll need a strong showing against Houston to maintain their slim margin. New York has one of the easiest remaining schedules (.478 SOS) down the stretch, while the Blue Jays have three more series (Houston, Boston, and Kansas City) remaining against teams with records greater than .500, as well as seven games against the pesky Tampa Bay Rays, who own a respectable 71-72 record heading into action Tuesday.

Returning to Rogers Centre this week should bode well for the Blue Jays, who are averaging 5.32 runs per game at their home venue (second best in baseball). They own a potent .272/.342/.451 slash line with a .793 OPS in 69 games at Rogers Centre, but their pitching staff has struggled at home, posting a 4.15 ERA (21st in MLB) while coughing up a total of 108 homers. Only the Baltimore Orioles (112), Athletics (113), and Colorado Rockies (122) have allowed more homers at their respective home venues.

Probable starting pitchers

Houston: RHP Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA, 9.00 K/9)

Garcia was initially slated to pitch last Sunday against the Rangers, but the Astros elected to start Framber Valdez on normal rest instead, pushing Garcia to the mound on Tuesday against Toronto. The right-hander made his 2025 debut over a week ago against the Los Angeles Angels, holding them to three runs on three hits over six innings of work while racking up six strikeouts. This will be just his second start since a long recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Toronto: RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.15 ERA, 10.90 K/9)

Bieber will be making his fourth start since returning from elbow surgery. He struggled last time out, allowing five runs over six innings while striking out six against the Cincinnati Reds, but he was very impressive in his first two outings of the campaign against the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins (3 ER over 11 1/3 innings).

Notable injuries

Pitcher Ronel Blanco (elbow), pitcher Josh Hader (shoulder), pitcher Kaleb Ort (elbow), third baseman Isaac Paredes (hamstring), and second baseman Brendan Rodgers (concussion) are on the injured list for Houston.

Outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), pitcher Yimi Garcia (elbow), pitcher Alek Manoah (elbow), and pitcher Bowden Francis (shoulder) are on the IL for Toronto. Shortstop Bo Bichette (shin) is expected to play on Tuesday, but bettors should wait to see Toronto’s starting lineup for confirmation.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 20 °C at first pitch under clear skies. Winds will blow from right field to left field at just 10 mph.

Astros vs. Blue Jays betting trends

Houston is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings between the teams.
The under is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings, including all three meetings this season.
Toronto is 45-24 at Rogers Centre this season, and the over is 41-26-2 in those games.
Houston is 38-31 on the runline on the road this season.

Astros vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit safely in seven straight games and is -220 to extend that streak.
Jeremy Pena has hit safely in five straight games and is also -220 to make it six straight games with a hit.
Bo Bichette has walked at least once in four straight games and is +210 to make it five in a row.
George Springer has had some success against Garcia, going 3-for-7 with a pair of homers in his career.
Yordan Alvarez is smoking hot right now, slashing .425/.529/.700 with three homers and nine RBIs with a 1.229 OPS over the last 30 days.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bet

George Springer over 0.5 runs scored: -115 for one unit (best odds @ bet365). Springer has beaten this line in 15 of his last 20 games and boasts an incredible .500 on-base percentage over the last 15 days. His previous success at the plate against Garcia also bodes well for us in this spot, as does the revenge factor against his former team. Routinely hitting out of the lead-off spot, Springer’s potential to score runs is maximized.