MLB Betting Preview (Sept. 9): Mets vs. Blue Jays predictions
Photo credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
By Greg Warren
Sep 9, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 9, 2024, 11:01 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will open a six-game homestand on Monday night when they welcome the New York Mets to Rogers Centre.
Toronto has dropped five of its last six games overall, including two of three to the Atlanta Braves over the weekend.
New York, meanwhile, is surging up the National League standings after claiming wins in nine of its last 10 games. However, the Mets are coming off a 3-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Mets and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:
Mets vs. Blue Jays odds
Mets Moneyline Odds | -115 |
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | -105 |
Runline Odds | Mets -1.5 (+140), Blue Jays +1.5 (-165) |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 runs (-125), Under 8.5 runs (+105) |
Time/Date | Sept. 9, 7:07 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting New York Mets (78-65 SU, 76-67 ATS, 71-68-4 o/u)
The Mets will enter play Monday tied with the Braves in the standings for the final NL Wild Card spot, but they sit seven games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the top spot in the NL East. This series will be pivotal for New York’s playoff chances, as its schedule is downright daunting down the stretch, with two series looming against the Phillies, one against the Braves, and one against the Milwaukee Brewers who are leading the NL Central. Beating up on the non-contenders this month, like the Blue Jays and Washington Nationals, could very well be the difference between playing October baseball or hitting the golf course.
Bettors should know that the Mets can do some serious damage, putting up 4.8 runs per game this season (sixth in MLB) while smacking 182 homers (fifth in MLB). Pete Alonso (31 homers) and Francisco Lindor (30 homers) have done the bulk of the damage offensively, with third baseman Mark Vientos also breaking out this season with 24 long balls and 62 RBIs. Toronto pitchers have coughed up 192 home runs this season, the most in the majors.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (68-76 SU, 76-68 ATS, 75-66-3 o/u)
The Blue Jays have rolled over in the spoiler role recently, dropping three consecutive series to playoff contenders. They’ll continue to audition a plethora of young players down the stretch, with the emphasis on development rather than winning, so don’t expect them to put up much of a fight in this series with a hungry New York squad.
Toronto has a 40-28-1 over/under record at Rogers Centre this season, making it one of the best home over plays in the majors this year. Blue Jays pitchers have a 4.35 combined ERA at home this year, and opponents are hitting .245 off of them.
Probable starting pitchers
New York: RHP Paul Blackburn (5-4, 4.66 ERA, 7.05 K/9, 1.29 WHIP)
Blackburn will be activated off the injured list Monday to make this start. He took a liner off his throwing hand in his last start on Aug. 23 against the San Diego Padres, exiting in the third inning after coughing up five earned runs on 10 hits. He’s made three good starts and two bad ones since being acquired from the Oakland Athletics in July, and he hasn’t faced the Blue Jays yet this season. The righty uses six pitches to keep opposing hitters honest, and he ranks in the 86th percentile in offspeed pitch run value, according to Baseball Savant.
Toronto: TBD
Weather
Forecasts are calling for clear skies and temperatures around 16 C this evening in Toronto. If the retractable roof is open, winds will blow in from left field at 10 mph.
MLB betting trends
- The under is 7-3 in New York’s last 10 games.
- The Blue Jays have hit the team total over in six of their last eight home games.
- The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 25 of their last 41 games.
MLB player prop trends
- Blackburn has recorded four or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts, with the lone exception being his last outing when he suffered a hand injury and was forced to exit early. He’s -155 to record over 3.5 strikeouts.
- Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk has hit safely in six straight games. He’s -240 to get a hit.
- Kirk has also struck out in five straight games and is +155 to strike out over 0.5 times.
- Blue Jays second baseman Spencer Horwitz has three homers in his last two games. He’s +700 to go deep again.
Mets vs. Blue Jays predictions
- Mets moneyline: -115. We’re getting a good price here on a red-hot Mets team that is highly motivated to nail down a playoff spot down the stretch. Toronto’s starting pitcher is still to be determined as of Monday morning, and the team used six relievers on Sunday in Atlanta. Take the Mets on the moneyline in this spot.
- The Mets thrive at hitting home runs, and Toronto gives up the most in the majors, so target the big bats on New York to go deep in this one. Alonso (+500 to homer) has four homers in nine career games against Toronto (but he’s never played at Rogers Centre), and Lindor (+350 to homer) has three homers and 10 RBIs in 13 career games at Rogers Centre.