Every dollar must be spent meticulously for the Toronto Blue Jays this off-season.
The organization has several roster spots to fill before next season arrives, and management only has a finite amount of resources to address them. As a result, the franchise will have a few interesting calls to make ahead of Friday&#8217;s non-tender deadline.
Toronto has nine players eligible for arbitration this off-season, and they must each be tendered a contract by 8 p.m. ET on Friday, or they&#8217;ll become free agents. If all nine return, they could account for nearly $60 million of the Blue Jays&#8217; 2025 competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll, using <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MLB Trade Rumors&#8217; arbitration projections.</a>
But chances are they won&#8217;t all be tendered a contract.
This is Toronto&#8217;s opportunity to save money, reallocating some of those dollars to its off-season spending pool. However, five of those nine will almost certainly return in &#8217;25, namely Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The other four expected to have their contracts tendered include Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement and Alex Manoah, who&#8217;s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Where does that leave the remaining four? With Friday&#8217;s deadline looming, they&#8217;ll sit on the bubble as potential non-tender candidates.
<h2>Jordan Romano</h2>
2024 salary: $7.75 million
Projected &#8217;25 salary: $7.75 million
Let&#8217;s start with the toughest decision first.
Romano entered last season among baseball&#8217;s premier closers, trailing only Cleveland&#8217;s Emmanuel Clase (86) for the major league lead in saves from 2022-23 with 72. But then he endured a miserable &#8217;24 season that included a pair of IL stints, with his second trip ultimately resulting in season-ending surgery to repair an impingement in his right elbow that had plagued him all year.
That ailment didn&#8217;t impact Romano&#8217;s velocity during his brief time with the Blue Jays, spanning only 13.2 innings before throwing his final pitch on May 29. But, it did have a negative outcome regarding his spin rate, with his four-seamer losing almost 80 RPMs and his slider dropping by 160 RPMs in 2024.
<figure id="attachment_80503" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-80503" style="width: 2560px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-80503" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1.jpeg 2560w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-2048x1152.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-80503" class="wp-caption-text">Source: <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-romano-605447?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baseball Savant</a></figcaption></figure>
The fact Romano wasn&#8217;t able to return to game action before last season concluded makes things even more challenging for Toronto&#8217;s front office. Can he regain his All-Star form in 2025? Perhaps. However, the better question is, can they afford to take that gamble for almost $8 million?
With four or five bullpen spots to fill, spreading that amount across multiple arms rather than spending it on a single one is likely the more sensible decision.
Prediction: Non-tendered, potentially re-signed on a multi-year, cost-effective deal
<h2>Erik Swanson</h2>
2024 salary: $2.75 million
Projected &#8217;25 salary: $3.2 million
Now, this is a tricky one.
At a projected $3.2 million, Swanson carries a manageable price tag for a high-leverage reliever &#8212; if the Blue Jays are confident in his late-season resurgence, that is. But the problem is he didn&#8217;t turn his campaign around over a large sample size. Instead, after returning from triple-A in July, most of his success began in late August and carried through September.
Still, you can&#8217;t argue with how he performed during that impressive stretch, posting a 1.32 ERA and 2.14 FIP with 18 strikeouts and only three walks in 13.2 innings. And despite a few ups and downs, his fastball velocity vastly improved following his minor-league demotion, returning to its usual 94-95 m.p.h. range.
<figure id="attachment_80504" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-80504" style="width: 2560px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-80504" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1.jpeg 2560w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1-2048x1152.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-80504" class="wp-caption-text">Source: Baseball Savant</figcaption></figure>
Swanson was among Toronto&#8217;s most valuable relievers in 2023, worth 0.8 fWAR just one season after registering a career-high 1.7 rating in his final season with the Seattle Mariners. But he proved how volatile the reliever position can be each year, earning a minus-0.7 rating this past season.
Much of the right-hander&#8217;s fate will likely depend on how management values this winter&#8217;s reliever market. Even so, his chances of returning under his final season of club control appear relatively strong.
Prediction: Tendered
<h2>Zach Pop</h2>
2024 salary: $750,000
Projected &#8217;25 salary: $1 million
Given that Pop will be out of minor-league options next season and has yet to stick in the majors, it&#8217;d be somewhat surprising if he were tendered a contract for 2025.
Purely on stuff, the 28-year-old remains an intriguing arm, one the Blue Jays hoped could develop more swing-and-miss with his sinker-slider pitch mix. But that hasn&#8217;t been the case in his three seasons with the organization. He punched out less than 16 per cent of his batters faced in 48.1 innings with the big-league club last season while allowing a career-worst nine home runs in that span.
Pop is an excellent ground-ball pitcher, with his mid-to-high 90s heater responsible for a 93rd-percentile ground-ball rate (54.6 per cent) in 2024. He struggled to limit hard contact, though, producing an eighth-percentile hard-hit rate against (44.5 per cent). And with the team expected to add multiple back-end relief pitchers, he&#8217;d likely be a DFA candidate next spring.
Prediction: Non-tendered
<h2>Dillon Tate</h2>
2024 salary: $1.5 million
Projected &#8217;25 salary: $1.9 million
Two years ago, perhaps the Blue Jays could justify spending nearly $2 million on an arm like Tate&#8217;s. But coming off a year where he recorded a 4.66 ERA and 9.1-per-cent strikeout-to-walk rate difference &#8212; matching a career-worst &#8212; they only have one option here.
There could be a scenario that sees Tate return on a minor-league contract, allowing the franchise to continue its reclamation projected with the 30-year-old ground-ball specialist, who only logged 8.1 combined innings &#8212; five at triple-A, 3.1 in the majors &#8212; after being claimed off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles in September.
Prediction: Non-tendered

Every dollar must be spent meticulously for the Toronto Blue Jays this off-season.

The organization has several roster spots to fill before next season arrives, and management only has a finite amount of resources to address them. As a result, the franchise will have a few interesting calls to make ahead of Friday's non-tender deadline.

Toronto has nine players eligible for arbitration this off-season, and they must each be tendered a contract by 8 p.m. ET on Friday, or they'll become free agents. If all nine return, they could account for nearly $60 million of the Blue Jays' 2025 competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll, using <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration projections.</a>

But chances are they won't all be tendered a contract.

This is Toronto's opportunity to save money, reallocating some of those dollars to its off-season spending pool. However, five of those nine will almost certainly return in '25, namely Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The other four expected to have their contracts tendered include Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement and Alex Manoah, who's rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Where does that leave the remaining four? With Friday's deadline looming, they'll sit on the bubble as potential non-tender candidates.
<h2>Jordan Romano</h2>
2024 salary: $7.75 million

Projected '25 salary: $7.75 million

Let's start with the toughest decision first.

Romano entered last season among baseball's premier closers, trailing only Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase (86) for the major league lead in saves from 2022-23 with 72. But then he endured a miserable '24 season that included a pair of IL stints, with his second trip ultimately resulting in season-ending surgery to repair an impingement in his right elbow that had plagued him all year.

That ailment didn't impact Romano's velocity during his brief time with the Blue Jays, spanning only 13.2 innings before throwing his final pitch on May 29. But, it did have a negative outcome regarding his spin rate, with his four-seamer losing almost 80 RPMs and his slider dropping by 160 RPMs in 2024.

[caption id="attachment_80503" align="aligncenter" width="2560"]<img class="size-full wp-image-80503" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" /> Source: <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-romano-605447?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baseball Savant</a>[/caption]

The fact Romano wasn't able to return to game action before last season concluded makes things even more challenging for Toronto's front office. Can he regain his All-Star form in 2025? Perhaps. However, the better question is, can they afford to take that gamble for almost $8 million?

With four or five bullpen spots to fill, spreading that amount across multiple arms rather than spending it on a single one is likely the more sensible decision.

Prediction: Non-tendered, potentially re-signed on a multi-year, cost-effective deal
<h2>Erik Swanson</h2>
2024 salary: $2.75 million

Projected '25 salary: $3.2 million

Now, this is a tricky one.

At a projected $3.2 million, Swanson carries a manageable price tag for a high-leverage reliever -- if the Blue Jays are confident in his late-season resurgence, that is. But the problem is he didn't turn his campaign around over a large sample size. Instead, after returning from triple-A in July, most of his success began in late August and carried through September.

Still, you can't argue with how he performed during that impressive stretch, posting a 1.32 ERA and 2.14 FIP with 18 strikeouts and only three walks in 13.2 innings. And despite a few ups and downs, his fastball velocity vastly improved following his minor-league demotion, returning to its usual 94-95 m.p.h. range.

[caption id="attachment_80504" align="aligncenter" width="2560"]<img class="size-full wp-image-80504" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1-1.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" /> Source: Baseball Savant[/caption]

Swanson was among Toronto's most valuable relievers in 2023, worth 0.8 fWAR just one season after registering a career-high 1.7 rating in his final season with the Seattle Mariners. But he proved how volatile the reliever position can be each year, earning a minus-0.7 rating this past season.

Much of the right-hander's fate will likely depend on how management values this winter's reliever market. Even so, his chances of returning under his final season of club control appear relatively strong.

Prediction: Tendered
<h2>Zach Pop</h2>
2024 salary: $750,000

Projected '25 salary: $1 million

Given that Pop will be out of minor-league options next season and has yet to stick in the majors, it'd be somewhat surprising if he were tendered a contract for 2025.

Purely on stuff, the 28-year-old remains an intriguing arm, one the Blue Jays hoped could develop more swing-and-miss with his sinker-slider pitch mix. But that hasn't been the case in his three seasons with the organization. He punched out less than 16 per cent of his batters faced in 48.1 innings with the big-league club last season while allowing a career-worst nine home runs in that span.

Pop is an excellent ground-ball pitcher, with his mid-to-high 90s heater responsible for a 93rd-percentile ground-ball rate (54.6 per cent) in 2024. He struggled to limit hard contact, though, producing an eighth-percentile hard-hit rate against (44.5 per cent). And with the team expected to add multiple back-end relief pitchers, he'd likely be a DFA candidate next spring.

Prediction: Non-tendered
<h2>Dillon Tate</h2>
2024 salary: $1.5 million

Projected '25 salary: $1.9 million

Two years ago, perhaps the Blue Jays could justify spending nearly $2 million on an arm like Tate's. But coming off a year where he recorded a 4.66 ERA and 9.1-per-cent strikeout-to-walk rate difference -- matching a career-worst -- they only have one option here.

There could be a scenario that sees Tate return on a minor-league contract, allowing the franchise to continue its reclamation projected with the 30-year-old ground-ball specialist, who only logged 8.1 combined innings -- five at triple-A, 3.1 in the majors -- after being claimed off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles in September.

Prediction: Non-tendered

Outlining the cases of four Blue Jays non-tender candidates

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