We’ll soon know whether Eric Lauer won his arbitration hearing against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Both sides failed to reach an agreement for the 2026 season prior to last month’s arbitration filing deadline, and since the Blue Jays are a file-and-trial team, that meant they were headed to an arbitration hearing.

Lauer filed at $5.75 million for his ’26 salary, while the club countered at $4.4 million, according to multiple reports.

An update on the situation arose from The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon on Thursday, reporting that Lauer’s arbitration hearing occurred on Tuesday, with a final decision expected to arrive sometime next week. Pitchers and catchers will report to the player development complex in Dunedin, Fla., on Wednesday.

Lauer, who impressed to the tune of a 3.18 ERA and 3.85 FIP across 28 games (15 starts) for Toronto last season, features a complicated arbitration case due to the left-hander’s unconventional pathway back to the majors.

The 30-year-old southpaw avoided arbitration with the Milwaukee Brewers ahead of the 2023 season, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $5.075 million at the time. But he was mired by the worst performance of his career afterwards, struggling to a miserable 6.56 ERA and an even more troubling 7.41 FIP in 10 games (nine starts) — worth minus-0.9 fWAR — before concluding the year at Triple-A.

Shortly after Lauer’s nightmare season was over, the Brewers outrighted him off the 40-man roster and ultimately granted his release, making him a free agent.

Following unsuccessful Triple-A stints with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros’ affiliates, the former first-round selection — originally drafted in the 17th round by the Blue Jays in 2013 before heading to college and becoming the 25th overall selection by the Padres three years later — headed overseas to reinvent himself in Korea for the final two months of the ’24 season.

Lauer’s results didn’t jump off the page, but he did register a career-high 16.7 per cent strikeout-minus-walk rate (K-BB%) in seven starts, albeit versus lower competition in the KBO. Still, it landed him a route back to North America, joining the Blue Jays organization as a minor-league free agent last off-season.

And, slowly but surely, he pitched his way back to the majors.

Upon returning to the big leagues in 2025, Lauer earned $2.2 million prorated throughout the remainder of the campaign. But, as you’ll remember from earlier, that was well below the amount he received during his last arbitration-eligible season in ’23 with Milwaukee. Historically, players who re-enter the arbitration cycle after exiting haven’t gone backwards with their future salary.

If the independent arbitration panel sides with the Blue Jays over Lauer, though, he’d become the first one to do so in this instance, making $675,000 less than he did three years ago.

Since this case has the potential to displace longstanding precedent, it has drawn industry-wide attention from both front-office executives and players alike, with all 29 other franchises closely monitoring the outcome.

Regardless of the final decision, Lauer will enter this spring under his final season of club control and become a free agent next off-season. He’ll compete for the fifth starter’s job alongside newcomer Cody Ponce and José Berríos, and will also receive an opportunity to break camp as the club’s traditional multi-inning reliever.