More details about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contract negotiations have come out.

According to <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/03/11/sports/blue-jays-contract-offer-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-revealed/">New York Post’s </a><a href="https://nypost.com/2025/03/11/sports/blue-jays-contract-offer-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-revealed/">Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman</a>, the Toronto Blue Jays offered around $500 million with deferrals to Guerrero Jr., which would’ve come to around $400 million to $450 million in present-day money. 
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The same day, Ken Rosenthal of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6194664/2025/03/11/vladimir-guerrero-blue-jays-contract-demand/">The Athletic</a> reported that Guerrero Jr. wanted $500 million in present-day value, meaning he does want deferrals. It&#8217;s worth noting that <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-contract-demands-were-less-than-600-million">Guerrero Jr. himself in an interview said last week that what he wanted was less than $600 million</a>. If Guerrero Jr. wants $500 million, this contract should&#8217;ve been done a while ago.
It’s safe to say that if Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays agreed to terms, it would’ve been the third-largest contract in baseball history, behind Juan Soto’s $765 million deal and Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal. No other first baseman has signed for more than $248 million, Miguel Cabrera in 2016 for eight seasons. It’s also worth noting that Cabrera was significantly more consistent than Guerrero Jr. has been in his six-year career.
See, Guerrero Jr.’s career can be split into three categories. Superstar level, “good” level”, and mediocre. Half of the seasons Guerrero Jr. has played, 2019, 2020, and 2023, have been mediocre as Guerrero Jr. hasn’t produced a wRC+ above 120 in any of those three seasons.
His first “superstar” level was in 2021, slashing .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs in 698 plate appearances for a 166 wRC+ for a 6.3 fWAR. However, many of the Blue Jays home games were spent in minor league ballparks before returning to Toronto in late July.
What causes more concern is that the 2022 season was a “good” year,  slashing .274/.339/.480 with 32 home runs in 706 plate appearances for a 132 wRC+. The following season, he had a 118 wRC+.
Of course, the 2024 season was another superstar-calibre season, as Guerrero Jr. slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs in 697 plate appearances for a 165 wRC+ and a 5.5 fWAR. Turning down $500 million with deferrals is bold, especially for a first baseman. It makes sense for Guerrero Jr. to bet on himself, he just has to play to his 2021 and 2024 standards to even think about asking for what he did this off-season.
However, if he wants $500 million without deferrals, he should&#8217;ve been a Blue Jay for life.
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Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. They can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.
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More details about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contract negotiations have come out.



According to <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/03/11/sports/blue-jays-contract-offer-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-revealed/">New York Post’s </a><a href="https://nypost.com/2025/03/11/sports/blue-jays-contract-offer-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-revealed/">Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman</a>, the Toronto Blue Jays offered around $500 million with deferrals to Guerrero Jr., which would’ve come to around $400 million to $450 million in present-day money. 
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&nbsp;

The same day, Ken Rosenthal of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6194664/2025/03/11/vladimir-guerrero-blue-jays-contract-demand/">The Athletic</a> reported that Guerrero Jr. wanted $500 million in present-day value, meaning he does want deferrals. It's worth noting that <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-contract-demands-were-less-than-600-million">Guerrero Jr. himself in an interview said last week that what he wanted was less than $600 million</a>. If Guerrero Jr. wants $500 million, this contract should've been done a while ago.

It’s safe to say that if Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays agreed to terms, it would’ve been the third-largest contract in baseball history, behind Juan Soto’s $765 million deal and Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal. No other first baseman has signed for more than $248 million, Miguel Cabrera in 2016 for eight seasons. It’s also worth noting that Cabrera was significantly more consistent than Guerrero Jr. has been in his six-year career.

See, Guerrero Jr.’s career can be split into three categories. Superstar level, “good” level”, and mediocre. Half of the seasons Guerrero Jr. has played, 2019, 2020, and 2023, have been mediocre as Guerrero Jr. hasn’t produced a wRC+ above 120 in any of those three seasons.

His first “superstar” level was in 2021, slashing .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs in 698 plate appearances for a 166 wRC+ for a 6.3 fWAR. However, many of the Blue Jays home games were spent in minor league ballparks before returning to Toronto in late July.

What causes more concern is that the 2022 season was a “good” year,  slashing .274/.339/.480 with 32 home runs in 706 plate appearances for a 132 wRC+. The following season, he had a 118 wRC+.

Of course, the 2024 season was another superstar-calibre season, as Guerrero Jr. slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs in 697 plate appearances for a 165 wRC+ and a 5.5 fWAR. Turning down $500 million with deferrals is bold, especially for a first baseman. It makes sense for Guerrero Jr. to bet on himself, he just has to play to his 2021 and 2024 standards to even think about asking for what he did this off-season.

However, if he wants $500 million without deferrals, he should've been a Blue Jay for life.

<hr />

Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. They can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.

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