Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez are just about all that is left of the late-2010s Houston Astros.

Their regular seasons are becoming less and less dominant, and they just had their earliest playoff exit since that era when the Astros made it to the big leagues. Even with all of that said, Houston is still worthy of a playoff spot this year. It may not look as pretty as they’ve made it look, though.

Death, taxes, and the Astros winning the American League West. In Joe Espada’s first year managing the Astros, Houston won their seventh division crown in the last eight seasons after finishing with a record of 88-73.

A 10-20 start to the season had the Astros in the basement of the division, but they progressively made up for lost time and regained control of the division by mid-July with some thanks to Seattle for their end-of-season struggles. Despite winning the division, the Astros had their seven-year streak of ALCS appearances broken after losing to the Detroit Tigers in the AL Wild Card round. Houston managed only three runs and 12 hits between the two games and combined to go 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position.

Houston’s offense stayed pretty healthy throughout last season, and they were paced once again by DH Yordan Alvarez. The lefty slugger hit 30+ home runs for the fourth consecutive season, hitting 35 round-trippers, 86 RBIs, and 34 doubles to accompany his .308/.392/.567 slash line. He was named to his third straight All-Star game and also received MVP votes for the third consecutive season.

Except in 2021, Alvarez has failed to play a season in which he didn’t finish with an OPS south of .900. What may be more impressive is his ability to hit left-handed pitching better than righties; in 209 plate appearances against southpaws last year, Alvarez had 26 extra-base hits against them with a 1.029 OPS. His power numbers were better against righties, but he got on base at a better rate against lefties.

RF Kyle Tucker missed nearly three months with a shin contusion, which was a shame as he was on track to have arguably the best season of his career. When he was healthy, though, his numbers alongside the steady production of 2B Jose Altuve and 3B Alex Bregman kept Houston afloat. The Astros also got a near-.300 batting average from C Yainer Diaz, who played his first full major league season.

The most disappointing part of Houston’s season offensively was the poor performance of 1B José Abreu, something he rarely gave teams during his 11-year career. Abreu slashed a measly .124/.167/.195 through 35 games last year, all wildly exceeding career lows for the veteran first baseman. The Astros flat-out released Abreu in mid-June, and not only did it prompt more playing time for 1B Jon Singleton and UTIL Mauricio Dubón, but it also triggered some Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rumours amongst baseball media.

Switching the focus to Houston’s pitching, they had to make it through the year without the pitching rotation that they thought they’d have heading into the season.

Lance McCullers Jr. was still recovering from flexor tendon surgery he had in 2023, but he suffered a setback in his rehab last summer that kept him out for the remainder of the season. Christian Javier underwent Tommy John surgery last June and will miss most of this upcoming season. Luis Garcia has had multiple setbacks since his Tommy John surgery in 2023, with the most recent one occurring last week, putting his 2024 status in jeopardy. Finally, after feeling some soreness in last year’s Spring Training, José Urquidy didn’t make one appearance last year and would also undergo Tommy John surgery in June.

With that amount of significant injuries to their best arms, it heightened the importance of Framber Valdez to spearhead this rotation, and he delivered. Valdez made 28 starts and owned a 2.91 ERA, the second time in three seasons that he finished a season with a sub-3.00 ERA (min. 25 starts). Using the sinker with a variety of secondary pitches, Valdez finished at the 99th percentile in ground ball rate while keeping a similar strikeout rate compared to the rest of his career.

Behind Valdez, Houston got 59 combined starts from Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco, with the latter earning a 4.4 bWAR with his 2.80 ERA and MLB-best 6.1 H/9. It also didn’t hurt that trade deadline acquisition Yusei Kikuchi likely earned his next contract by posting a 2.70 ERA and 11.4 K/9 in the 10 starts he made after the trade.

The major headlines from Houston’s offseason were the two trades they made with the Chicago Cubs, sending them RF Kyle Tucker and RP Ryan Pressly.

In the Tucker deal, the Cubs sent 3B Isaac Paredes, SP Hayden Wesneski, and top prospect Cam Smith to Houston. Although not entirely official as of writing, it appears all three of the above pieces will be on Houston’s Opening Day roster.

Paredes was probably most thrilled to be leaving Wrigley Field and getting into Daikin Park; all 72 home runs of his career have been hit to the pull side, so the Crawford Boxes are a match made in heaven for him. Last season between the Rays and Cubs, Paredes slashed .238/.346/.393 with a .739 OPS, 19 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 25 doubles. He was destined for a close copy of his career-best 2023 season in which he hit 31 homers and held a .840 OPS, but his numbers fell off after being dealt to Chicago.

Wesneski bounced between triple-A Iowa and the majors last season, amassing 28 appearances total with seven of them being starts. In those outings, he held a 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and an 8.9 K/9 with no major discrepancy between his starter and reliever figures. A right forearm strain held Wesneski out for two months during the back half of the season, but he was able to make three multi-inning relief appearances before the end of the year. Wesneski took a comebacker off of his foot during a Spring Training game last Thursday, but X-rays came back negative. Barring something unforeseen, he’s slated to pitch in Houston’s starting rotation to kick off the year.

The only true prospect in the haul back for Tucker, Smith was probably the least likely of the three to start on the major league roster for Opening Day. Smith was drafted just last summer by the Cubs, but he played 32 combined games at single-A, high-A, and double-A by the end of last season. He hit .313/.396/.609 in those games, although he saw a dip in his numbers once he got to double-A.

While that was a nice introduction to professional baseball, Smith continued to turn heads at Spring Training this year. Appearing in 15 games, Smith slashed .342/.419/.711 with a 1.129 OPS, four home runs, and 11 RBIs. The Astros also moved him from third base to right field, as his production was working him into the lineup and Paredes is already occupying third.

Switching gears to the Pressly trade, the Cubs sent minor league pitcher Juan Bello to Houston in exchange for the veteran reliever. Bello was signed in February of 2022 by the Cubs out of Colombia. Last season at single-A Myrtle Beach, Bello posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 9/1 K/9 across 22 starts and 89.2 innings. He doesn’t figure to be in the major league picture any time soon, but as Baseball America pointed out of Bello, he has the ideal arsenal for Houston to develop internally.

The Astros needed to address their hole at first base badly, and they did so by signing 1B Christian Walker, formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 33-year-old slashed .251/.335/.468 with a .803 OPS, 26 home runs, 84 RBIs, and 26 doubles last season. He won his third consecutive Gold Glove award, and he also posted at least 25 homers and a .800 OPS for the third straight season.

Last season, Walker was ridiculously great against the Los Angeles Dodgers, hitting 9 home runs, 15 RBIs, and walking seven times in nine games against them.

Houston signed a few players to minor league deals that are under serious contention for spots on the major league roster. RP Steven Okert has already earned his spot in the bullpen after nine scoreless innings this spring. As of Monday night, 3B Zack Short and 2B Brendan Rodgers are still in contention for a bench role, but veteran RP Miguel Castro was informed he would not make the team but is still in the organization.

With the amount of success Houston has had in the last decade, I’ve gained a lot of trust with them. And until they miss the playoffs, I can’t make myself doubt them all that much. Don’t get me wrong, I do have some concerns with the depth of their batting order and pitching rotation, but I trust them to figure it out similar to how they did last year. Okay, now that I think about it, maybe I need to see Altuve in left field long enough to ensure I can trust that.

Losing Tucker and Bregman is no easy fix, but the profiles of Walker and Paredes fit Houston’s ballpark nicely. SS Jeremy Peña had a very nice spring, so an All-Star season from him would be a welcome sight.

Texas and Seattle are popular AL West champion picks, and while I can see either of those teams winning the division, I can’t imagine playoffs without the Astros just yet.