In a season of disappointment, the Toronto Blue Jays will soon have to pick a direction leading up to the July 30 trade deadline, which is just five weeks away. Will they sell or buy? But given how these last few weeks have gone, the odds of selling have risen dramatically as of late. 
At 36-43, the Blue Jays enter Thursday&#8217;s series opener versus the New York Yankees with a grim <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">five per cent chance of making the playoffs</a>, according to FanGraphs. They sit dead last in the AL East, 14.5 games back of the division-leading Yankees and 6.5 games out of the final wild-card seed currently held by another division rival, the Boston Red Sox.
This franchise painted itself into a corner by losing seven in a row, likely accelerating the reflection process that would&#8217;ve occurred around the All-Star break. The team has underperformed immensely to the point where they&#8217;re probably out of the post-season race before July, providing clarity for their trade deadline plans.
If the Blue Jays sell, where should they draw the line? Will it stop at this year&#8217;s pending free agents? Or might they also listen on marquee stars like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? And what about the starting rotation, too?
One potential route could involve being open to any possible outcome, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5595230/2024/06/27/toronto-blue-jays-last-place-trade-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Athletic&#8217;s Ken Rosenthal wrote Thursday.</a> In his piece, he wondered how Toronto might approach the deadline, questioning whether it&#8217;d be wise to retool in hopes of becoming competitive again in 2025, the final season of club control with Bichette and Guerrero.
After that, both players are expected to test free agency, where their chances of returning will reduce significantly. The Blue Jays will undoubtedly command exorbitant returns if either becomes available this season, and rightly so, as each could participate in two post-season runs.
Trading Bichette or Guerrero, or both, in 2024 could net the franchise a more substantial return versus waiting until this winter or next season&#8217;s trade deadline, as Rosenthal reports. And that&#8217;d also likely lead to fielding offers on Chris Bassitt (signed through &#8217;25), Kevin Gausman (signed through &#8217;26) and José Berríos (signed through &#8217;28, can opt-out after &#8217;26).
Embarking on a full-scale rebuild would certainly improve a poor farm system that ranks in the bottom third of the majors by almost every evaluator. But it&#8217;d surely hurt attendance at the newly-renovated Rogers Centre, which, as Rosenthal notes, has seen ticket prices increase upon completion of the $300 million renos.
Rosenthal believes that not selling &#8212; beyond Toronto&#8217;s impending free agents, at least &#8212; could temporarily buy more time with ownership (Rogers Communications) for team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins.
That would run the risk of becoming uncompetitive again next season, forcing the front office to seriously consider trading its remaining core to avoid having this competitive window fall off a cliff in 2026. At which point, they&#8217;d have to decide between prioritizing the most talent and upside or major-league-ready players to help them return to contention more quickly.
In all likelihood, the Blue Jays will probably look to avoid a full teardown as much as possible, opting for more of a retool that includes trading soon-to-be free agents such as Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García, Danny Jansen, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier. With Kikuchi and García, in particular, those two likely provide the best opportunity to land pieces that can help this team as early as 2025.
However, there&#8217;s no reason why Shapiro and Atkins shouldn&#8217;t be open to potentially doing something bigger if the opportunity presents itself. The chances of it coming to fruition may be slim, but there&#8217;s no harm in expanding trade discussions outside of the obvious candidates.

In a season of disappointment, the Toronto Blue Jays will soon have to pick a direction leading up to the July 30 trade deadline, which is just five weeks away. Will they sell or buy? But given how these last few weeks have gone, the odds of selling have risen dramatically as of late. 

At 36-43, the Blue Jays enter Thursday's series opener versus the New York Yankees with a grim <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">five per cent chance of making the playoffs</a>, according to FanGraphs. They sit dead last in the AL East, 14.5 games back of the division-leading Yankees and 6.5 games out of the final wild-card seed currently held by another division rival, the Boston Red Sox.

This franchise painted itself into a corner by losing seven in a row, likely accelerating the reflection process that would've occurred around the All-Star break. The team has underperformed immensely to the point where they're probably out of the post-season race before July, providing clarity for their trade deadline plans.

If the Blue Jays sell, where should they draw the line? Will it stop at this year's pending free agents? Or might they also listen on marquee stars like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? And what about the starting rotation, too?

One potential route could involve being open to any possible outcome, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5595230/2024/06/27/toronto-blue-jays-last-place-trade-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal wrote Thursday.</a> In his piece, he wondered how Toronto might approach the deadline, questioning whether it'd be wise to retool in hopes of becoming competitive again in 2025, the final season of club control with Bichette and Guerrero.

After that, both players are expected to test free agency, where their chances of returning will reduce significantly. The Blue Jays will undoubtedly command exorbitant returns if either becomes available this season, and rightly so, as each could participate in two post-season runs.

Trading Bichette or Guerrero, or both, in 2024 could net the franchise a more substantial return versus waiting until this winter or next season's trade deadline, as Rosenthal reports. And that'd also likely lead to fielding offers on Chris Bassitt (signed through '25), Kevin Gausman (signed through '26) and José Berríos (signed through '28, can opt-out after '26).

Embarking on a full-scale rebuild would certainly improve a poor farm system that ranks in the bottom third of the majors by almost every evaluator. But it'd surely hurt attendance at the newly-renovated Rogers Centre, which, as Rosenthal notes, has seen ticket prices increase upon completion of the $300 million renos.

Rosenthal believes that not selling -- beyond Toronto's impending free agents, at least -- could temporarily buy more time with ownership (Rogers Communications) for team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins.

That would run the risk of becoming uncompetitive again next season, forcing the front office to seriously consider trading its remaining core to avoid having this competitive window fall off a cliff in 2026. At which point, they'd have to decide between prioritizing the most talent and upside or major-league-ready players to help them return to contention more quickly.

In all likelihood, the Blue Jays will probably look to avoid a full teardown as much as possible, opting for more of a retool that includes trading soon-to-be free agents such as Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García, Danny Jansen, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier. With Kikuchi and García, in particular, those two likely provide the best opportunity to land pieces that can help this team as early as 2025.

However, there's no reason why Shapiro and Atkins shouldn't be open to potentially doing something bigger if the opportunity presents itself. The chances of it coming to fruition may be slim, but there's no harm in expanding trade discussions outside of the obvious candidates.

Recent articles from Thomas Hall

Breaking News