<p>Life has been cruel to some of the best relief pitchers in baseball in 2025. Looking around the league, it&#8217;s easy to find elite relievers from 2024 who have bad peripherals this season.</p>
<p>Tanner Scott, Devin Williams and Ryan Pressly were demoted from their closer roles earlier this season. Emmanuel Clase and Jordan Romano both experienced rough patches in April. Raisel Iglesias currently has an ERA of 5.93 after posting an unreal 1.95 ERA in 66 games with the Atlanta Braves last year. At some point, even the best become hittable. It just so happens that a lot of closers have all hit the skids within the same timeframe. Some have looked worse than others, but only a handful of teams <em>haven&#8217;t</em> experienced growing pains with high-leverage relievers in the bullpen.</p>
<p>Despite the strides made to rebuild the Toronto<a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/"> Blue Jays</a>&#8216; bullpen in the offseason, they weren&#8217;t immune to this fate either. After consecutive seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA and K-BB% hovering around the 24-28% mark with the Phillies in 2023 and 2024, Toronto&#8217;s newly crowned closer, Jeff Hoffman, isn&#8217;t exactly having an elite season, either.</p>
<p>Hoffman&#8217;s latest appearance this past Sunday against the Chicago White Sox only fuelled the flames. While the stat line of 0.1 IP, one hit, one earned run and one walk doesn&#8217;t look so bad at first glance, it was another case when the Blue Jays entrusted Hoffman in high leverage and he failed to shut the door.</p>
<p>This latest meltdown caused some to suggest the Blue Jays should <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/jeff-hoffmans-struggles-who-could-replace-him-toronto-blue-jays-closer">remove</a> Hoffman from the closer&#8217;s role, which might be a rash decision. Although his 5.29 ERA looks ugly, it doesn&#8217;t tell the complete story of Hoffman&#8217;s season thus far.</p>
<p>First off, ERA is a tricky stat to measure relievers by. Because they pitch so few innings, all it takes is one or two blowups to balloon a reliever&#8217;s ERA to where it looks like they&#8217;re unplayable.</p>
<p>Williams of the Yankees had a 10.03 ERA through his first 14 appearances of the season. In 18 subsequent appearances, he has a 1.62 ERA, but his earned run average shot up so high that he&#8217;s &#8220;only&#8221; trimmed down his season ERA to 5.08. Despite a tale of two seasons for the on-again-off-again-on-again Yankees closer, that single number says he&#8217;s having a poor season.</p>
<p>By that metric, so too is Hoffman. His 5.29 ERA with the Blue Jays is over three full earned runs higher than last year with the Phillies. Before diving any further down the rabbit hole, I highly recommend watching this video by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@AndThatsBaseball">And That&#8217;s Baseball</a>, which proposes a much better way to evaluate relievers.</p>
<div class="jetpack-video-wrapper"><iframe loading="lazy" title="MLB’s Reliever Paradox" width="1424" height="801" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/s05N1F6j7wQ?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Jeff Hoffman ranks among MLB relievers</h2>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 144pt;" border="0" width="192" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" width="64" height="19"><strong>Stat</strong></td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Value</strong></td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Rank</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">K-BB%</td>
<td class="xl63" style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">25.6%</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">18th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">SIERA</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">2.43</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">19th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">FIP</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">4.59</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">153rd</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">xFIP</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">2.87</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">25th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">GB%</td>
<td class="xl63" style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">38.5%</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">124th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">AVG EV</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">89.7</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">109th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">Stuff+</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">112</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">42nd</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">Location+</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">94</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">140th</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>If we go through the stats that make up &#8216;And That&#8217;s Baseball&#8217;s&#8217; RPC formula, Hoffman ranks 18th in K-BB%, 19th in SIERA, 153rd in FIP (yikes), 25th in xFIP, 124th in GB%, 109th in average exit velocity, 140th in Location+, and 42nd in Stuff+. There&#8217;s some good and bad in there, but the spikes in Hoffman&#8217;s numbers are due to his surge in HR/FB%.</p>
<p>The fact that Hoffman&#8217;s ERA is 5.29 and yet his expected ERA is 3.48 is quite telling. As is his 4.59 FIP compared to his 2.87 xFIP. Among all qualified relievers this year, the 1.72 difference between his FIP and xFIP is tied for the second-highest in MLB. Hoffman is also in the upper tier of ERA-xERA, which sits at 1.81, which is good for 19th in MLB among all qualifying pitchers.</p>
<h2>Jeff Hoffman&#8217;s expected statistics rankings</h2>
<table style="width: 308px;" width="230">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 86px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Stat</strong></td>
<td style="width: 77px; text-align: center;" width="83"><strong>Value</strong></td>
<td style="width: 145px; text-align: center;" width="83"><strong>Rank</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 86px; text-align: center;">FIP &#8211; xFIP</td>
<td style="width: 77px; text-align: center;">2.87</td>
<td style="width: 145px; text-align: center;">2nd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 86px; text-align: center;">ERA &#8211; xERA</td>
<td style="width: 77px; text-align: center;">2.81</td>
<td style="width: 145px; text-align: center;">18th</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Notably, Hoffman&#8217;s teammate Chad Green is also up there as well, ranking seventh on that list with a 1.34 difference between his FIP and xFIP. For both guys, it boils down to home runs surrendered, but it&#8217;s not like they&#8217;ve all been moonshots off both Hoffman and Green.</p>
<p>There have been a few fluky longballs here and there, and also home runs on very good pitches, so there&#8217;s an element of randomness. <a href="https://x.com/EvanBenet1">Evan Benet</a> had a great thread on X earlier this season, which showed just how weird some of these Hoffman home runs were.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thread of Jeff Hoffman’s home runs allowed</p>
<p>1. Drake Baldwin, wall scraping non-barrel on well placed away splitter <a href="https://t.co/6CfX4KM40G">pic.twitter.com/6CfX4KM40G</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Evan Benet (@EvanBenet1) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanBenet1/status/1925665664229925354?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 22, 2025</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>During Sunday&#8217;s game against the White Sox, Hoffman&#8217;s location was all over the place. He also didn&#8217;t field what could&#8217;ve been an inning-ending ground ball. Then, to make matters worse, a two-run ball dropped into left field. Most of his issues were self-inflicted, but it&#8217;s not like he got tattooed in that appearance.</p>
<p>Behind the scenes, these are probably the exact numbers the Blue Jays are looking at to convince themselves not to remove Hoffman as the team&#8217;s closer. Optically, it doesn&#8217;t look great to take the role away from the guy you just signed to a three-year deal. Going with the next-hottest reliever doesn&#8217;t guarantee the next guy up will thrive in that role, either.</p>
<p>For the time being, the team will afford Hoffman some grace to work this stuff out. He&#8217;s not the only Blue Jays reliever to struggle as of late. Walks are rearing their ugly head with Brendan Little, making him a risky choice in high-leverage situations suddenly.</p>
<p>The solution is simple on paper but difficult in practice:<a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/series-recap-torontoblue-jays-embarrassingly-drop-two-three-white-sox"> keep the ball in the yard</a>. Throughout a full season, this will all balance itself out. Along with the cheapie, wall-scraper home runs, there will be fly balls which die on the warning track. There just haven&#8217;t been many of the latter for Hoffman as of late.</p>
<p>Opponents could barely touch Hoffman&#8217;s four-seam fastball during his electric month of April, but the league has since caught on, and that pitch is no longer as effective as it once was. Month-to-month, opponents slugged .167 on Hoffman&#8217;s four-seamer in April, .800 in May and now .900 in June.</p>
<figure id="attachment_87478" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-87478" style="width: 1020px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-87478" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-23-223641.png" alt="" width="1020" height="104" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-23-223641.png 1020w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-23-223641-300x31.png 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-23-223641-768x78.png 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-87478" class="wp-caption-text">Baseball Savant</figcaption></figure>
<p>He&#8217;s simply not generating the swing and miss he did earlier in the year. Hoffman also did a better job at dotting the corners and painting the edges with his fastball the first month of the season, and he&#8217;s leaving more fastballs over the heart of the plate, which opponents will gladly do damage on.</p>
<p>This is a long-winded way to say that I&#8217;m not concerned about Jeff Hoffman and I don&#8217;t think the Blue Jays should be, either. There doesn&#8217;t have to be any buyer&#8217;s remorse over signing Hoffman instead of just hanging onto Romano. Relief pitchers go through rough patches, but it takes a really long time for their numbers to normalize after a meltdown or two.</p>
<p>Hoffman should stay as the closer, <a href="https://x.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1936887873774453159">and as John Schneider said</a>, they should trust the sh*t out of him. After all, they have 33 million reasons to.</p>
<hr />
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<p>Celebrate <a href="https://nationgear.ca/collections/bluejaysnation">Vladdy’s big news</a> in style with the <em>exclusive</em> new <a href="https://nationgear.ca/collections/bluejaysnation">BlueJaysNation Vladdy merch</a> — available only at <a href="https://nationgear.ca/collections/bluejaysnation">NationGear.ca</a>! Rep a future Hall of Famer and wear your team&#8217;s pride loud. Limited drop. Don’t miss out.</p>


Life has been cruel to some of the best relief pitchers in baseball in 2025. Looking around the league, it's easy to find elite relievers from 2024 who have bad peripherals this season.

Tanner Scott, Devin Williams and Ryan Pressly were demoted from their closer roles earlier this season. Emmanuel Clase and Jordan Romano both experienced rough patches in April. Raisel Iglesias currently has an ERA of 5.93 after posting an unreal 1.95 ERA in 66 games with the Atlanta Braves last year. At some point, even the best become hittable. It just so happens that a lot of closers have all hit the skids within the same timeframe. Some have looked worse than others, but only a handful of teams <em>haven't</em> experienced growing pains with high-leverage relievers in the bullpen.

Despite the strides made to rebuild the Toronto<a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/"> Blue Jays</a>' bullpen in the offseason, they weren't immune to this fate either. After consecutive seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA and K-BB% hovering around the 24-28% mark with the Phillies in 2023 and 2024, Toronto's newly crowned closer, Jeff Hoffman, isn't exactly having an elite season, either.

Hoffman's latest appearance this past Sunday against the Chicago White Sox only fuelled the flames. While the stat line of 0.1 IP, one hit, one earned run and one walk doesn't look so bad at first glance, it was another case when the Blue Jays entrusted Hoffman in high leverage and he failed to shut the door.

This latest meltdown caused some to suggest the Blue Jays should <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/jeff-hoffmans-struggles-who-could-replace-him-toronto-blue-jays-closer">remove</a> Hoffman from the closer's role, which might be a rash decision. Although his 5.29 ERA looks ugly, it doesn't tell the complete story of Hoffman's season thus far.

First off, ERA is a tricky stat to measure relievers by. Because they pitch so few innings, all it takes is one or two blowups to balloon a reliever's ERA to where it looks like they're unplayable.

Williams of the Yankees had a 10.03 ERA through his first 14 appearances of the season. In 18 subsequent appearances, he has a 1.62 ERA, but his earned run average shot up so high that he's "only" trimmed down his season ERA to 5.08. Despite a tale of two seasons for the on-again-off-again-on-again Yankees closer, that single number says he's having a poor season.

By that metric, so too is Hoffman. His 5.29 ERA with the Blue Jays is over three full earned runs higher than last year with the Phillies. Before diving any further down the rabbit hole, I highly recommend watching this video by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@AndThatsBaseball">And That's Baseball</a>, which proposes a much better way to evaluate relievers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s05N1F6j7wQ

&nbsp;
<h2>Jeff Hoffman ranks among MLB relievers</h2>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 144pt;" border="0" width="192" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" width="64" height="19"><strong>Stat</strong></td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Value</strong></td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Rank</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">K-BB%</td>
<td class="xl63" style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">25.6%</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">18th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">SIERA</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">2.43</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">19th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">FIP</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">4.59</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">153rd</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">xFIP</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">2.87</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">25th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">GB%</td>
<td class="xl63" style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">38.5%</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">124th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">AVG EV</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">89.7</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">109th</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">Stuff+</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">112</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">42nd</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td style="height: 14.5pt; width: 145px; text-align: center;" height="19">Location+</td>
<td style="width: 99px; text-align: center;" align="right">94</td>
<td style="width: 342px; text-align: center;">140th</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
If we go through the stats that make up 'And That's Baseball's' RPC formula, Hoffman ranks 18th in K-BB%, 19th in SIERA, 153rd in FIP (yikes), 25th in xFIP, 124th in GB%, 109th in average exit velocity, 140th in Location+, and 42nd in Stuff+. There's some good and bad in there, but the spikes in Hoffman's numbers are due to his surge in HR/FB%.

The fact that Hoffman's ERA is 5.29 and yet his expected ERA is 3.48 is quite telling. As is his 4.59 FIP compared to his 2.87 xFIP. Among all qualified relievers this year, the 1.72 difference between his FIP and xFIP is tied for the second-highest in MLB. Hoffman is also in the upper tier of ERA-xERA, which sits at 1.81, which is good for 19th in MLB among all qualifying pitchers.
<h2>Jeff Hoffman's expected statistics rankings</h2>
<table style="width: 308px;" width="230">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 86px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Stat</strong></td>
<td style="width: 77px; text-align: center;" width="83"><strong>Value</strong></td>
<td style="width: 145px; text-align: center;" width="83"><strong>Rank</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 86px; text-align: center;">FIP - xFIP</td>
<td style="width: 77px; text-align: center;">2.87</td>
<td style="width: 145px; text-align: center;">2nd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 86px; text-align: center;">ERA - xERA</td>
<td style="width: 77px; text-align: center;">2.81</td>
<td style="width: 145px; text-align: center;">18th</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Notably, Hoffman's teammate Chad Green is also up there as well, ranking seventh on that list with a 1.34 difference between his FIP and xFIP. For both guys, it boils down to home runs surrendered, but it's not like they've all been moonshots off both Hoffman and Green.

There have been a few fluky longballs here and there, and also home runs on very good pitches, so there's an element of randomness. <a href="https://x.com/EvanBenet1">Evan Benet</a> had a great thread on X earlier this season, which showed just how weird some of these Hoffman home runs were.

https://twitter.com/EvanBenet1/status/1925665664229925354

During Sunday's game against the White Sox, Hoffman's location was all over the place. He also didn't field what could've been an inning-ending ground ball. Then, to make matters worse, a two-run ball dropped into left field. Most of his issues were self-inflicted, but it's not like he got tattooed in that appearance.

Behind the scenes, these are probably the exact numbers the Blue Jays are looking at to convince themselves not to remove Hoffman as the team's closer. Optically, it doesn't look great to take the role away from the guy you just signed to a three-year deal. Going with the next-hottest reliever doesn't guarantee the next guy up will thrive in that role, either.

For the time being, the team will afford Hoffman some grace to work this stuff out. He's not the only Blue Jays reliever to struggle as of late. Walks are rearing their ugly head with Brendan Little, making him a risky choice in high-leverage situations suddenly.

The solution is simple on paper but difficult in practice:<a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/series-recap-torontoblue-jays-embarrassingly-drop-two-three-white-sox"> keep the ball in the yard</a>. Throughout a full season, this will all balance itself out. Along with the cheapie, wall-scraper home runs, there will be fly balls which die on the warning track. There just haven't been many of the latter for Hoffman as of late.

Opponents could barely touch Hoffman's four-seam fastball during his electric month of April, but the league has since caught on, and that pitch is no longer as effective as it once was. Month-to-month, opponents slugged .167 on Hoffman's four-seamer in April, .800 in May and now .900 in June.

[caption id="attachment_87478" align="alignnone" width="1020"]<img class="size-full wp-image-87478" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-23-223641.png" alt="" width="1020" height="104" /> Baseball Savant[/caption]

He's simply not generating the swing and miss he did earlier in the year. Hoffman also did a better job at dotting the corners and painting the edges with his fastball the first month of the season, and he's leaving more fastballs over the heart of the plate, which opponents will gladly do damage on.

This is a long-winded way to say that I'm not concerned about Jeff Hoffman and I don't think the Blue Jays should be, either. There doesn't have to be any buyer's remorse over signing Hoffman instead of just hanging onto Romano. Relief pitchers go through rough patches, but it takes a really long time for their numbers to normalize after a meltdown or two.

Hoffman should stay as the closer, <a href="https://x.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1936887873774453159">and as John Schneider said</a>, they should trust the sh*t out of him. After all, they have 33 million reasons to.

<hr />

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