As the Kyle Tucker rumours continue to swirl, the Toronto Blue Jays remain a strong possibility to land the superstar free agent, as do the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers, with contract negotiations intensifying this week. And it appears talks with one of those three teams could reach the finish line rather soon.

If the Blue Jays end up signing Tucker, though, they’ll be subject to additional penalties for signing a second qualified free agent during the same off-season.

As a refresher, here are the consequences for luxury-tax-paying teams who sign a qualified free agent (any player who rejects a qualifying offer):

So far this winter, Toronto has already lost its second- and fifth-round selections in this summer’s draft as a result of acquiring Cease, who rejected the $22.025 million qualifying offer he received from the San Diego Padres in early November. That’s in addition to having their first-round pick pushed back 10 places, slotting in at 39th overall (the second selection of round two), for exceeding the luxury tax by at least $40 million.

On top of those penalties, the Blue Jays have also been deducted $1 million from their international bonus pool for the 2027 signing period. This year’s signing period begins Thursday, and the franchise will operate with $5,940,000 in spending ($500k less than the original amount due to signing qualified free agent Anthony Santander last winter).

Thus, if the organization remains aggressive in free agency and lands Tucker, they’ll be without selections in the second, third, fifth and sixth rounds of the 2026 draft. For those wondering, any amount associated with those picks will also be forfeited, meaning the front office would feature significantly fewer resources to sign draft picks than any other team.

Needless to say, that’d also place increased pressure on the franchise to perfectly execute its first-round selection, given the greatly reduced margin for error that this scenario would entail.

However, it’s worth pointing out that the Blue Jays would receive a compensatory draft pick — arriving after the fourth round is completed — if free-agent shortstop Bo Bichette signs elsewhere. So, that’d essentially provide them with multiple fourth-round picks, considering they’ll make the second-last selection of that round before choosing another player a few picks later.

In total, despite losing four draft selections within the first six rounds, they’d still own three picks across the first four-plus rounds. Nevertheless, when you also combine their reduced international signing bonus pool, there will be heightened urgency put on the organization’s ability to uncover meaningful talent from unlikely places.

For the most part, many of the scouting department’s recent hits have come atop of the draft with names like Arjun Nimmala, Trey Yesavage and Jojo Parker — each of the franchise’s last three first-round selections. While they also feature a few overlooked gems in their system, such as Gage Stanifer (19th-round selection in 2022) and Juan Sanchez (signed for $997,500 last year), those have largely been few and far between for this franchise.

That’ll need to change as the Blue Jays continue to ascend throughout their renewed competitive window. At the same time, though, when you’re considering the implications of ceiling-raising additions such as Cease and potentially Tucker, deciding to sacrifice draft capital and bonus pool money becomes a whole lot easier.